Newfoundland and Labrador election, 2019

[Hatman 🍁]

Elections NL made an error, it will be 14 after all. Huzzah!

They beat the Alliance after all. Man, the election results are going to look like something out of the 1950's.

What, heavily based on religious lines, or whether or not the party supported confederation?

[DC Al Fine]

Elections NL made an error, it will be 14 after all. Huzzah!

They beat the Alliance after all. Man, the election results are going to look like something out of the 1950's.

What, heavily based on religious lines, or whether or not the party supported confederation?

Haha

No I meant mostly two party races with the occasional CCF New Democrat to make things interesting.

[lilTommy]

Using the link https://www.elections.gov.nl.ca/elections/resources/pdf/releases/NR%20-%20Officially%20Nominated%20Candidates%20for%20the%202019%20Provincial%20General%20Election.pdf - factoring in the error for the NDP

Liberal-PC only - 14
- Torngat Mountains
- Stephenville – Port au Port
- Placentia West – Bellevue
- Lewisporte – Twillingate
- Humber – Gros Morne
- Harbour Grace – Port de Grave
- Grand Falls-Windsor – Buchans
- Gander
- Fortune Bay – Cape La Hune
- Fogo Island - Cape Freels
- Conception Bay East – Bell Island
- Cartwright – L’Anse au Clair
- Burin – Grand Bank
- Burgeo – La Poile
- Bonavista

Liberal-NDP only - 1
- Waterford Valley

Liberal-PC-Alliance (no NDP) - 6
- Baie Verte – Green Bay
- Conception Bay South
- Harbour Main
- St. George’s – Humber
- Terra Nova
- Topsail – Paradise

Liberal-PC-NDP - 6
- Windsor Lake
- Virginia Waters - Pleasantville
- St. John’s East – Quidi Vidi
- St. John's Centre
- St. John's West
- Labrador West

Liberal-PC-NDP-Alliance - 3
- Cape St. Francis
- Mount Scio
- Mount Pearl North

[Hatman 🍁]

Elections NL made an error, it will be 14 after all. Huzzah!

They beat the Alliance after all. Man, the election results are going to look like something out of the 1950's.

What, heavily based on religious lines, or whether or not the party supported confederation?

Haha

No I meant mostly two party races with the occasional CCF New Democrat to make things interesting.

Well, I think the NDP will at least win Signal Hill-Qidi Vidi, so we're looking at more like a 1990s situation, where the NDP wins 1or 2 seats and gets less than 10% of the popular vote.

[DC Al Fine]

Nearly halfway through the campaign and still no polls. Grr

[the506]

The debate was tonight, you can watch it here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BdgzMGEQJ_s

Ball was feisty, Coffin held her own and got in some good zingers on both, Crosbie was too slow and kept backing down when challenged.

[lilTommy]

The debate was tonight, you can watch it here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BdgzMGEQJ_s

Ball was feisty, Coffin held her own and got in some good zingers on both, Crosbie was too slow and kept backing down when challenged.

That does not sound good for Crosbie, you can't attract new voters that way. We've seen on a couple occasions that Debates can help turn tides (I'm thinking 2015 Fed, 2018 ON).
Glad to see Coffin did well for being the leaders for about, what a month or two now.
"feisty" can be good or bad... if he came off confident and competent then that's good, but if he was aggressive and angry, probably not that great.

Perhaps there will be polling post debate?

[Smid]

[Snip] (I'm thinking 2015 Fed, 2018 ON). [/Snip]

+ 2015 AB for Notley
+ 2011 Fed (French) for Layton

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/PeterCBC/status/1125132620390469632

[DC Al Fine]

Finally

[LabourJersey]

I'm guessing it's really hard to get good polling for a province as lightly-populated and sparse as Newfoundland

[Hatman 🍁]

I'm guessing it's really hard to get good polling for a province as lightly-populated and sparse as Newfoundland

NL has 4x as many people as PEI, and there were lots of PEI polls.

May be a lack of money for polling.

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/MikeConnors/status/1125769758245367809

[DL]

I'm guessing it's really hard to get good polling for a province as lightly-populated and sparse as Newfoundland

That's not the issue, there are over half a million people in Newfoundland and they all have phones and there are even regular online polls of people in NL. But polls cost money and someone has to pay for them.

[DC Al Fine]

I'm guessing it's really hard to get good polling for a province as lightly-populated and sparse as Newfoundland

That's not the issue, there are over half a million people in Newfoundland and they all have phones and there are even regular online polls of people in NL. But polls cost money and someone has to pay for them.

I suspect PEI got as much polling as it did because the media was interested in the possible Green government. The Newfoundland campaign just isn't that exciting.

[Hatman 🍁]

Abacus:

PC: 42
Lib: 37
NDP: 15

So, actually an interesting race developing.

And if the NDP is actually in the low teens, that should be enough to hang on to Signal Hill-Quidi Vidi.

[DL]

Abacus:

PC: 42
Lib: 37
NDP: 15

So, actually an interesting race developing.

And if the NDP is actually in the low teens, that should be enough to hang on to Signal Hill-Quidi Vidi.

Its hard to say - while its true the NDP is only running 14 candidates - the ridings where they are not running candidates are virtually all places where they only got low single digits in 2015. The Abacus poll says the NDP is at 19% in the Avalon peninsula, which includes St. John's. But the NDP vote is likely heavily concentrated in 3 or 4 inner St. John's seats. Also 2015 was a massive Liberal landslide whereas this time the Liberals have lost a ton of support to the PCs and that likely creates more fvaourable vote splits for the NDP in the two or three seats where they are in contention.

[lilTommy]

Abacus:

PC: 42
Lib: 37
NDP: 15

So, actually an interesting race developing.

And if the NDP is actually in the low teens, that should be enough to hang on to Signal Hill-Quidi Vidi.

Its hard to say - while its true the NDP is only running 14 candidates - the ridings where they are not running candidates are virtually all places where they only got low single digits in 2015. The Abacus poll says the NDP is at 19% in the Avalon peninsula, which includes St. John's. But the NDP vote is likely heavily concentrated in 3 or 4 inner St. John's seats. Also 2015 was a massive Liberal landslide whereas this time the Liberals have lost a ton of support to the PCs and that likely creates more fvaourable vote splits for the NDP in the two or three seats where they are in contention.

I'd also argue, the NDP have a decent shot at Labrador West, really their only candidate not on the Avalon with a shot at winning.

[DL]

Keep in mind that in 2015 the popular vote in NL was:

Liberals  - 57%
PCs - 30%
NDP - 12%
Other - 1%

If you believe the Abacus poll the Liberals are down 20 points, PCs are up 12, NDP is up 3 and other is up 5

[Hatman 🍁]

I'm sure a lot of that 15% are people who are expecting to vote NDP, but will be surprised to find out they have no candidate in that riding. So, in reality, we're talking about something much closer to 10%.

[DL]

I'm sure a lot of that 15% are people who are expecting to vote NDP, but will be surprised to find out they have no candidate in that riding. So, in reality, we're talking about something much closer to 10%.

That will certainly be true of some people - but as i mentioned most (if not all) of the ridinsg that have no NDP candidate are also ridings where NDP support is typically close to non-existent in the first place.

[lilTommy]

I'm sure a lot of that 15% are people who are expecting to vote NDP, but will be surprised to find out they have no candidate in that riding. So, in reality, we're talking about something much closer to 10%.

That will certainly be true of some people - but as i mentioned most (if not all) of the ridinsg that have no NDP candidate are also ridings where NDP support is typically close to non-existent in the first place.

- The NDP have candidates in all St. John's riding's (arguably where their strength is)
- 3 of the 6 riding's called "St.John's suburbs" have NDP candidates (Mount Pearl North having the best result at 24%, also held by PCs though so probably no)
- 1 of the 5 "Avalon Peninsula" riding's, and not one here really has any real strength based on past results. Harbour Main should have been a target, again in 2015 they pulled in 24%
- 2 of 7 in "Western NFLD" Corner Brooks (candidate in place) looked to have been their best result at about 17%
- 1 of 4 in Labrador, and arguably one of their highest targets at 34% in 2015 in Labrador West.

This is relatively a pretty strategic slate (still terrible not to run a full slate, but best they could do we know), I do think Gander could have been one to have tried to get a candidate in place for, the NDP won 25% in 2015, one of their stronger results outside the Avalon.

[BigSkyBob]

Keep in mind that in 2015 the popular vote in NL was:

Liberals  - 57%
PCs - 30%
NDP - 12%
Other - 1%

If you believe the Abacus poll the Liberals are down 20 points, PCs are up 12, NDP is up 3 and other is up 5

Compared to the 2011 election the PC are down 14 the NDP down 9 and the liberals up 18.

[lilTommy]

Keep in mind that in 2015 the popular vote in NL was:

Liberals  - 57%
PCs - 30%
NDP - 12%
Other - 1%

If you believe the Abacus poll the Liberals are down 20 points, PCs are up 12, NDP is up 3 and other is up 5

Compared to the 2011 election the PC are down 14 the NDP down 9 and the liberals up 18.

Looks like 2011 was a low mark for the Liberals and a high for the NDP:
PC - 56%
Liberal - 19% (still came second with 6 seats)
NDP - 24% (still came in third with 5 seats)

[DL]

I'm sure a lot of that 15% are people who are expecting to vote NDP, but will be surprised to find out they have no candidate in that riding. So, in reality, we're talking about something much closer to 10%.

That will certainly be true of some people - but as i mentioned most (if not all) of the ridinsg that have no NDP candidate are also ridings where NDP support is typically close to non-existent in the first place.

- The NDP have candidates in all St. John's riding's (arguably where their strength is)
- 3 of the 6 riding's called "St.John's suburbs" have NDP candidates (Mount Pearl North having the best result at 24%, also held by PCs though so probably no)
- 1 of the 5 "Avalon Peninsula" riding's, and not one here really has any real strength based on past results. Harbour Main should have been a target, again in 2015 they pulled in 24%
- 2 of 7 in "Western NFLD" Corner Brooks (candidate in place) looked to have been their best result at about 17%
- 1 of 4 in Labrador, and arguably one of their highest targets at 34% in 2015 in Labrador West.

This is relatively a pretty strategic slate (still terrible not to run a full slate, but best they could do we know), I do think Gander could have been one to have tried to get a candidate in place for, the NDP won 25% in 2015, one of their stronger results outside the Avalon.

Politics in NL is very personality based. You often get "flash in the pan" high results for the NDP in particular ridings thanks to running a candidate who is a local superstar - but unless that individual runs again, support melts away to nothing. The NDP almost won Burin in 2011 but then the local mayor who ran didnt run again and support vanished. Almost any riding could conceivably be winnable. Newfoundland is all pretty "working class" so there really are no ridings that could never go NDP for ideological reasons. There is no NL equivalent to rural southern Alberta.