2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[SenatorCouzens]

I seem to remember several posts in October during the 2016 version of this thread saying that Florida was in the bag for Clinton.

[SenatorCouzens]

I seem to remember several posts in October during the 2016 version of this thread saying that Florida was in the bag for Clinton.

Hmmmmm....

Date Registered: August 06, 2020

Mods, it's sock check time.

I've come here for several years and only recently registered, and this is my only account. Being that you've been here so long, post a lot, and are from Florida, maybe you can answer my question? Weren't there several posts here in October 2016 saying the early vote meant Clinton was going to win Florida? Moreover, didn't "Florida expert" Steve Schale tell us, based upon similar analyses, that Democrats were going to win the premier state-wide races in Florida in 2014, 2016, and 2018? Thanks!

[SenatorCouzens]

So let me see if I have this right:

— Basically even in in-person voting
— Big Dem advantage in mail voting
— Miami-Dade still out

Sounds good for Dems then, right?

I’m guessing Miami-Dade puts Dems in the lead for the day for in person early voting. The rest of the unreported counties, other than Sarasota, are pretty small, so Miami-Dade will eclipse them.

Isn't Sarasota the only other unreported county?  My understanding was those remaining rural counties didn't actually have early voting today.

If that’s he case, RIP GOP. Miami-Dade’s 40k votes will be more than enough to give Dems a comfortable lead for the day.

It's the FIRST DAY of early voting in person in Florida. Several counties haven't even offered it yet. And you're already saying "RIP GOP"?

I think Biden is going to win the election, but I wish 2016 taught us a little more about not jumping the gun.

[SenatorCouzens]

Just a reminder, Steve Schale, analyzing the early vote, predicted Democrats would win the big races in Florida in 2014, 2016, and 2018. So be careful with his analysis.

[SenatorCouzens]

Nevada is burying whatever hope the gop had

I suggest anyone interested in Nevada actually read Ralston's posts, instead of the comments here.

"And I want to repeat again, and probably not for the last time: We don’t really know yet where this is going. Maybe two-thirds will vote before Election Day, per usual, just with a different mix of methods (mail more than in-person). Maybe not. And we don’t know if this pattern – does four days a pattern make? – will hold for the full fortnight.

"Luckily, you have me to track it."

https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-3

[SenatorCouzens]

I don't know what you crackers are going on about, Biden was never in danger of losing Nevada to Trump lol

It's fine to put in your prediction about Nevada today, yesterday, or last year based on whatever you find relevant, except the early vote as it's too early.