CPRM, Pt 2: AL (RO) 7/17; GA (RO) 7/24; TN 8/2; 274K ballots left in CA

[YE]

Jared Golden winning makes up for Vilela sucking wind so decent night for me overall. Hosford isn't that bad though. Hopefully Koble hangs on in NV-02.

ME-2 should be a pure tossup with Golden IMO

Tossup but if I had to pick a winner, I'd say Golden wins.

[MAINEiac4434]

Golden down to 49.7.

[henster]

Golden down to 49.7.

Yea this is where RCV gets annoying, it's unlikely but you could see St. Clair who has like 40% of the vote win when everything is allocated. I think a 45%+ cutoff and you win is good enough and anything below is a runoff election is a better alternative.

[MAINEiac4434]

Golden down to 49.7.

Yea this is where RCV gets annoying, it's unlikely but you could see St. Clair who has like 40% of the vote win when everything is allocated. I think a 45%+ cutoff and you win is good enough and anything below is a runoff election is a better alternative.

I'd guess Olson's 2nd preferences split fairly evenly between St. Clair and Golden, so Golden is still fine.

[Adam Griffin]

Does Maine have any state body with election results for tonight online? I can't seem to find it on the State Board of Elections website.

[Adam Griffin]

Golden down to 49.7.

Yea this is where RCV gets annoying, it's unlikely but you could see St. Clair who has like 40% of the vote win when everything is allocated. I think a 45%+ cutoff and you win is good enough and anything below is a runoff election is a better alternative.

GA had this 45% system (minus the IRV) from 1993-2005, implemented by the Democrats after Wyche Fowler won the Senate election by a point but lost the runoff. Of course, when the GOP took power in 2005, they reverted it to 50% (aka where the Democrats had it before their majority in the state started slipping).

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

None of these Candidates (D) seems to be taking more votes than None of these Candidates (R).

Registered zombie DINO voters too lazy to switch registrations. We've seen random protest candidates win rural counties before so the Dems tonight actually aren't doing too bad in that regard.

Looks like Esmeralda is being that county tonight. Rosen tied for the senate nomination, None of the Above won for governor, and Hansen won Lt Gov there (the only county she won). They had about 42 Democratic voters in the whole county. There's about 800 people in the whole county IIRC.

The Gubernatorial primary on the Dem side is an interesting map. It sorta looks like NV-2 vs the rest of the state. Weird considering that both major candidates are from Clark County.

[YE]

None of these Candidates (D) seems to be taking more votes than None of these Candidates (R).

Registered zombie DINO voters too lazy to switch registrations. We've seen random protest candidates win rural counties before so the Dems tonight actually aren't doing too bad in that regard.

Looks like Esmeralda is being that county tonight. Rosen tied for the senate nomination, None of the Above won for governor, and Hansen won Lt Gov there (the only county she won). They had about 42 Democratic voters in the whole county. There's about 800 people in the whole county IIRC.

The Gubernatorial primary on the Dem side is an interesting map. It sorta looks like NV-2 vs the rest of the state. Weird considering that both major candidates are from Clark County.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/8/8b/Nevada_Congressional_Districts%2C_113th_Congress.tif/lossless-page1-1344px-Nevada_Congressional_Districts%2C_113th_Congress.tif.png

Esmeralda use to be a big Dem/Silver stronghold at the peak of mining era at the turn of the 20th century. Now it's basically a few ghost towns and it doesn't even have a high school.

[Adam Griffin]

I mean, it's not that shocking considering the dynamics there, but still - wow:

Sioux, SD:
GOP 127 52.92%
DEM 113 47.08%

[Landslide Lyndon]

Hahahahaha!!!

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1006794571760783361

[Tintrlvr]

Golden down to 49.7.

Yea this is where RCV gets annoying, it's unlikely but you could see St. Clair who has like 40% of the vote win when everything is allocated. I think a 45%+ cutoff and you win is good enough and anything below is a runoff election is a better alternative.

This self-serving half-assed stuff is stupid. If you supported St. Clair instead of Golden you wouldn’t say this. If voters genuinely prefer St. Clair to Golden on net (heaven forfend), they should get St. Clair.

[ON Progressive]

Anyone know what's taking ME so long to count their votes? It's 8:30 AM the day after, and 29% of the vote is still out.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

WULFRIC PROJECTIONS - FINISHING UP NV:

District 1
Republican Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Joyce Bentley
6,444   55.2%   
Fred Horne
5,235   44.8   
11,679 votes, 100% reporting (309 of 309 precincts)

U.S. House District 2

Democratic Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Clint Koble
9,451   26.1%   
Patrick Fogarty
8,614   23.8   
Rick Shepherd
7,696   21.3   
Vance Alm
4,781   13.2   
Jesse Hurley
2,907   8.0   
Jack Schofield
2,711   7.5   
36,160 votes, 100% reporting (774 of 774 precincts)

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Dems just barely win the Nevada Senate Turnout Battle:

[kyc0705]

Golden down to 49.7.

Yea this is where RCV gets annoying, it's unlikely but you could see St. Clair who has like 40% of the vote win when everything is allocated. I think a 45%+ cutoff and you win is good enough and anything below is a runoff election is a better alternative.

The most important thing about a voting system is that its process stays the same, whether or not you personally approve the results. If the people want St. Clair, they'll get St. Clair. (Besides, Golden will almost certainly still win, unless he manages to have 0 second-preference votes.)

[Arkansas Yankee]

Dems just barely win the Nevada Senate Turnout Battle:

So, are you postulating that 4 Democrat Senate seats are in grave danger and Heller’ seat is a toss up due to primary turnout?  If so, you have made my day.

[Gass3268]

Dems just barely win the Nevada Senate Turnout Battle:

This is the first time this has happened in decades.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Dems just barely win the Nevada Senate Turnout Battle:

So, are you postulating that 4 Democrat Senate seats are in grave danger and Heller’ seat is a toss up due to primary turnout?  If so, you have made my day.

The map does not dictate my ratings. See my map and documents for those.

[KingSweden]

Dems just barely win the Nevada Senate Turnout Battle:

So, are you postulating that 4 Democrat Senate seats are in grave danger and Heller’ seat is a toss up due to primary turnout?  If so, you have made my day.

Wulfric includes this map for reference - he himself does not regard it as predictive

[Arkansas Yankee]

Dems just barely win the Nevada Senate Turnout Battle:

This is the first time this has happened in decades.

What has happened?

[Arkansas Yankee]

Dems just barely win the Nevada Senate Turnout Battle:

So, are you postulating that 4 Democrat Senate seats are in grave danger and Heller’ seat is a toss up due to primary turnout?  If so, you have made my day.

The map does not dictate my ratings. See my map and documents for those.

Then, what is the purpose of the map?

What does an orange West Virginia indicate?

[ON Progressive]

Primary turnout is interesting to track, but it isn't predictive at all. OH, IN, MT, and ND are not going to be R wins just because Democrats didn't show up to vote in the uncontested Dem primaries those states had, while Rs turned out for the actually contested primaries.

[Gass3268]

Primary turnout is interesting to track, but it isn't predictive at all. OH, IN, MT, and ND are not going to be R wins just because Democrats didn't show up to vote in the uncontested Dem primaries those states had, while Rs turned out for the actually contested primaries.

Agreed, I think comparing turnout to the last midterm primary can be more informative.

[Gass3268]

NRSC will not be competing in Virginia:

https://twitter.com/seungminkim/status/1006920668506656768

[Arkansas Yankee]

Primary turnout is interesting to track, but it isn't predictive at all. OH, IN, MT, and ND are not going to be R wins just because Democrats didn't show up to vote in the uncontested Dem primaries those states had, while Rs turned out for the actually contested primaries.

Agreed, I think comparing turnout to the last midterm primary can be more informative.

How is it informative?