🇨🇦 2024 Canadian by-elections

[Hatman 🍁]

New year, new thread.

Only one by-election with a confirmed date coming up:
*Jan 29: Conception Bay East–Bell Island (provincial, NL)

There are also vacant seats in:
Durham, ON (federal)
Toronto-St. Paul's, ON (federal)
Lambton—Kent—Middlesex, ON (provincial)
Borden-Kinkora, PEI (provincial)

Mississauga, mayor (following the resignation of Bonnie Crombie who is the new Ontario Liberal leader)
Kitchener, Ward 10 (following the election of Aislinn Clancy to provincial parliament)

[Hatman 🍁]

Raitt vs. Crombie would be fun.

David Lametti, former Justice minister of Canada and current Liberal MP for LaSalle-Émard-Verdun will resign on January 31st, to return to legal practice.

He says he still doesn't know why he was fired last summer and says that any delays in appointing judges are not up to him, but to the Prime Minister office, who took way too long to approve his picks.

A byelection would most likely be a Lib coronation; but in light of provincial QS results and everything, the NDP *could* be worth monitoring as a sleeper factor, unless Jonathan Pedneault gives it another Green run and monkeywrenches things...

Verdun is a great fit for QS and the NDP, but definitively not LaSalle.

Well, the most Liberal parts of LaSalle are in the Dorval-Lachine-LaSalle riding. Still though, they'll be fighting with the Bloc over the left of centre vote.

[Hatman 🍁]

I would think Crombie would be strongly favoured in a Milton by-election. Due to changing demos, it is a more Liberal riding than anywhere else in Halton now. But if she can't win a low hanging 905 seat like Milton (and Crombie is seen as the Liberal's best hope to win back the region), there may be calls for her removal. But, it's not like they have anyone better though.

[Hatman 🍁]

Today's Conception Bay East-Bell Island by-election has been delayed until tomorrow due to a storm warning.

[Hatman 🍁]

2/51 polls reporting

Lib 208
PC 119
NDP 47
Ind (PC) 3

Would be a huge pickup for the Liberals if this holds true

[Hatman 🍁]

https://twitter.com/VOCMNEWS/status/1752486481451483601

I'm guessing these Tory polls are from Bell Island? If so, I agree this is over.

[Hatman 🍁]

This Newfoundland result is surprising - is the incumbent provincial government really popular or something?

The Liberal candidate is a well known journalist

[Hatman 🍁]

This Newfoundland result is surprising - is the incumbent provincial government really popular or something?

I don't know if the Liberal government is especially popular but from what I've read and have been told by a person in Newfoundland, they've hit upon a success in economic development which should mean at the very least that the province won't have a decline in population as had been expected.

Essentially, the government has decided to focus on what business professor Michael Porter coined 'clustering' about 40 years ago (referred to as 'network effects' in economics) and focus on tourism and especially the arts for economic development. The people behind this say they want to turn Newfoundland and Labrador into the leading arts hub in North America.

Newfoundland and Labrador already has a successful artistic community, but the province still has a great deal of what artists love - big buildings (or big spaces) with cheap rent.

How Canada’s Newfoundland And Labrador Builds An Amazing Creative Community
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonyounger/2022/04/17/how-canadas-newfoundland-and-labrador-builds-an-amazing-creative-community/?sh=1dfdc8a355e4

An influx of artists might even help the NDP down the road!

[Hatman 🍁]

Final results

Fred Hutton (Lib) 2,603 (45.9%) +12.8
Tina Neary (PC) 2,152 (37.9%) -18.2
Kim Churchill (NDP) 846 (14.9%) +4.2
Darryl Harding (Ind - PC) 70 (1.2%)

Liberal GAIN from PC (avg. swing: 12.8%)

Turnout: 44.7% (-5.4)

Outstanding turnout for a by-election these days

[Hatman 🍁]

Today's Borden-Kinkora (PEI) by-election has been postponed until tomorrow due to another Atlantic Canada storm.

[Hatman 🍁]

Final results

Matt MacFarlane (Green) 1,226 (48.9%) +14.1
Carmen Reeves (PC) 964 (38.5%) -21.7
Gordon Sobey (Liberal) 272 (10.9%)
Karen Morton (NDP) 40 (1.6%) -1.3

Green gain from PC.

Turnout: 58.9% (-9.1)

Was this result expected or a surprise?

Certainly a surprise to me. I thought the incumbent Tory government was really popular. And it's not like the Green candidate was a star or anything, he was their candidate in last year's election and lost.

[Hatman 🍁]

Final results

Matt MacFarlane (Green) 1,226 (48.9%) +14.1
Carmen Reeves (PC) 964 (38.5%) -21.7
Gordon Sobey (Liberal) 272 (10.9%)
Karen Morton (NDP) 40 (1.6%) -1.3

Green gain from PC.

Turnout: 58.9% (-9.1)

Was this result expected or a surprise?

Certainly a surprise to me. I thought the incumbent Tory government was really popular. And it's not like the Green candidate was a star or anything, he was their candidate in last year's election and lost.

And on top of that, we're dealing with a *'19* Tory seat, and one which they won by 20 points that year (25 points in '23).  Plus maybe some notion that Green-mania in PEI was inevitably destined to be a slow-fade flash in the pan...

Of course this is PEI, and everything is local. Max is probably right that it came down to the intensive care issue.

The thing I like about elections on PEI is they give you the poll by poll results on election night (unfortunately a huge % of people vote in advance polls, so the data are degraded a bit). What I found interesting was that the Greens actually did better in the eastern part of the riding (further away from Summerside), closer to Bevan-Baker's riding. Also what was interesting is the Tories won the only "urban" part of the riding, the community of Borden-Carleton.

[Hatman 🍁]

2.Andy Fillmore, the M.P for Halifax seems set to run for mayor of Halifax (Halifax Regional Municipality) with the current mayor Mike Savage retiring.

Maybe the NDP can finally win back Halifax?

[Hatman 🍁]

2.Andy Fillmore, the M.P for Halifax seems set to run for mayor of Halifax (Halifax Regional Municipality) with the current mayor Mike Savage retiring.

Maybe the NDP can finally win back Halifax?

Andy Fillmore has more or less confirmed he's running for Halifax Mayor, and the NDP nominated back in September Lisa Roberts for the riding, the former MLA and 2021 nominee.

And the map is slightly more advantageous for the NDP, with Fairmount being moved to Halifax West (providing that there is no by-election of course).

[Hatman 🍁]

2.Andy Fillmore, the M.P for Halifax seems set to run for mayor of Halifax (Halifax Regional Municipality) with the current mayor Mike Savage retiring.

Maybe the NDP can finally win back Halifax?

Andy Fillmore has more or less confirmed he's running for Halifax Mayor, and the NDP nominated back in September Lisa Roberts for the riding, the former MLA and 2021 nominee.

And the map is slightly more advantageous for the NDP, with Fairmount being moved to Halifax West (providing that there is no by-election of course).

No by-election but 2021 nominee and former union leader Mary Shortall has been nominated in St. John's East which is the other best riding for the NDP in the Atlantic.

She is also the president of the party now.

[Hatman 🍁]

Gatineau's mayor has resigned, so we're going to see another mayoral by-election in a "major" (defining this rather loosely) city this year.

[Hatman 🍁]

The Gatineau mayoral by-election will be June 9.

[Hatman 🍁]

The conditions are ripe for the Tories to win it IMO, but if Rebecca Blaikie runs, the NDP should hold the seat.

[Hatman 🍁]

best tory results since 1917

Wrong. Best result since 1984 (59%). The riding had a different name though (Durham-Northumberland)

[Hatman 🍁]

Swings:

Cons: +11.0%
Lib: -7.4%
NDP: -7.1%
PPC: -1.1%
Grn: +2.2% (did not run in 2021)

Cons HOLD (Avg. swing: +9.2%)

[Hatman 🍁]

best tory results since 1917

Wrong. Best result since 1984 (59%). The riding had a different name though (Durham-Northumberland)

they got 80 in 1917

So?

[Hatman 🍁]

Next by-election on the calendar is in Ward 4, St. John's, NL which will be March 12.  It was vacated in December by Ian Froude. Ward 4 is in the north end of the city, generally covering the Mount Scio and Windsor Lake provincial ridings.

Candidates
Tom Davis, business man. Ran for an at-large seat on council in 2021 (finished 9th). Elections Canada indicates a Tom Davis in St. John's made a donation to the Liberals in 2019 and Elections N&L has a Tom Davis making a donation to the provincial Liberals in 2022. He's concerned about increased taxes and city spending, but also supports environmental sustainability, affordable housing and traffic safety.
Nicholas Hillier, teacher.  Wants to fight tax increases, wants better infrastructure, and vaguely supports "better representation".    
Myles Russell, civil engineering technologist. Platform is generally centre-left; supports safer streets for all users, supports more housing, better public transit.
Greg Smith, curler. Ran in the Ward 2 by-election in 2020 and ran for an at-large seat in 2021 (finished 7th). As he's a curler (represented Newfoundland at two Briers), I'm very familiar with him. He's openly LGBT, and is fairly progressive. Paradoxically he a Tory though (this is Atlantic Canada, after all). He backed Jean Charest's leadership in 2022 and supported Eugene Manning's provincial leadership until Manning backed the federal party, which Smith left because it's too right wing under Poilievre. Supports traffic calming, green initiatives, "reducing red tape" (I guess this is what makes him a Tory?)

Seems like Russell is probably the most progressive candidate, though Smith is up there too. Hillier seems like the most right wing candidate, as his #1 focus is taxes. Davis' is focussed on taxes too, but has a more balanced platform.

[Hatman 🍁]

Results:
Davis: 1,211 (43%)
Russell: 657 (24%)
Smith: 650 (23%)
Hillier: 272 (10%)

[Hatman 🍁]

Fogo Island-Cape Freels provincial by-election has been set for April 15. Probably a safe Liberal hold?

[Hatman 🍁]

His main problem might be that his ward barely overlaps the riding.

How well known is he in the area? It seems he is quite popular in his district.