PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[ctherainbow]

I’m still praying with every fiber of my being for a Cartwright Senate run.  I am highly biased because I’m from NEPA, but c’mon, TWO Senators and a President from #BlueCollar #CoalMining #Populist Scranton?  NUT

(Also, Cartwright is just a really decent human being, from every interaction I’ve had with him and his team)

[ctherainbow]

I agree Cartwright is probably a better choice but there's no indication he's going to make a bid for it.

Per several members of his campaign staff, he would prefer to stay in the House, so they’re waiting to see whether redistricting screws him or Susan Wild over.  He has seniority on her, and could theoretically pick up the rest of Monroe and Northampton in redistricting, while Wild gets pushed further west.  But if Matt ends up adding Susquehanna, Wayne, Carbon, or the red portions of Luzerne, he’ll probably jump into the Senate race.

[ctherainbow]

Well damn, that was unexpected as hell.  So we’ve already got a Philly v Pitt rivalry in the Dem primary.  If he gets screwed in redistricting, I still hope Matt (Cartwright) runs, but in the absence of him running, Malcolm = endorsed, donated to, volunteered for.  He’s a great guy who has the potential to be a phenomenal Senator.

Obviously, electorally I am worried about elderly suburban/rural Dems who are mildly racist and homophobic going for someone like Fitzpatrick over Kenyatta in the general, but who knows, the PA GOP may nominate a Scott Wagner type, so we’ll have to see.

[ctherainbow]

The only sad part about both Sims and Kenyatta running is it cuts our queer representation in the PA House by 2/3rds if they win.     

[ctherainbow]

Doesn't this  mean they retire too so its either way?

So far, there are no indications that they won’t both file for their current seats as well.  You don’t have to resign your legislative office to run for another office in PA.

[ctherainbow]

 Plus, we just ran a progressive AA from Philly proper who had a higher profile than Kenyatta - Nina Ahmad - and she under-performed the rest of the ticket.

What?  Nina is Bangladeshi-American, and I can assure you that Bangladesh is not a country in Africa.         She mentioned her heritage in pretty much every single interview she did, so if you know enough about her candidacy to call her progressive, I’m not sure how you missed this.

[ctherainbow]

Honestly, I just assumed she was African-American w/o double-checking; that was clearly prejudice on my part.  Not much to do but admit the mistake and do better going forward

Well, I can’t speak for her, but from what I know of Nina, she wouldn’t hold it against you, she’s a sweetheart.  Her backstory as an immigrant is really compelling; if you have some free time, you might want to check out her bio.

Speaking of Nina, I wonder if she’ll run for anything this cycle, or maybe go for PA Dems Chair?  I’m not sure she could successfully run for Senate after her loss to DeFoor, but she could make a play for the PA Dems; Nancy Mills is not the most popular lady at the moment.

[ctherainbow]

Now if you think Kenyatta is too liberal or has a massive personality issue, that's another thing. But her being black, gay, or from Philadelphia is COMPLETELY irrelevant.

I’m quickly becoming “that guy” in this thread, but in addition to Nina Ahmad not being Black, Malcolm Kenyatta is not a her.  He identifies as male, at least the last time I met him in February 2020.  (I realize that may have just been a typo, but thought I would clarify just in case  xD )

[ctherainbow]

Anyone else miss the days when Olawakandi stanned Sestak?  No?  Just me?

[ctherainbow]

Eugh.  Sharif is another one like Shapiro who everyone has known for years is running for higher office, and... I know a lot of people like him, but Sharif has pulled some serious procedural bullsh**t quashing progressives within the PA Dems.  It’s an incredibly easy line of attack to fracture his support in the primary; there’s even video evidence that was streamed on PennLive.   

[ctherainbow]

I don't know why Ds don't like Fetterman, we have a blue collar D in Casey. Just like D's didn't like Joe Kennedy and Market hurt Bullock in Mnt in his Green New Deal and no one wanted Market to campaign for them. He isn't a QAnonon supporter like extremists in R party are

Jackson and Kelly would be glad to have Fetterman campaign for them instead of Keyenatta

I don’t know why you’re obsessed with this idea that Fetterman is going to go campaign for Mark Kelly in AZ?  He’ll have a hard enough time flipping PA, let alone travel across the country to campaign for some random astronaut whose only connection to Fetterman, as far as I know, is that they’re both Dems.

[ctherainbow]

Fetterman, Jackson and Kelly are on facebook knocking the socks off fundraising and on Twitter.

Just like Joe Kennedy and Bullock were, you rarely saw Markey on Facebook until it was campaign season and he disappeared just like you don't see Daines anymore after he beat Bullock

.That's why I am optimistic about a 🌊🌊🌊

I’m glad that you’re optimistic about a blue wave, but... what does any of that have to do with Fetterman theoretically campaigning for Kelly in AZ?

Are you an actual human account, or are you the Atlas equivalent of ten cats stacked in a trench coat trying to buy catnip?

[ctherainbow]

So the guy alleges that Fetterman “lied about everything”, that Fetterman did know his race when he pulled the gun on him, and that “telling the truth now would probably hurt”, and yet wants Fetterman to be a Senator?

Wut?

Why would you want someone you are alleging is a liar to be in public office?

[ctherainbow]

Sharif officially announced, at a Zoom conference packed with establishment Dems, whilst comparing himself to Barack Obama.   *eyes roll out of head*   If anyone’s interested in watching, it’s up on his FB page.

[ctherainbow]

He announced an exploratory committee though.

You're not wrong!  It has however been common knowledge, along the lines of Shapiro running for Governor, that Sharif is running for Senate.  Honestly I think he's waiting to see how well Malcolm and Val Arkoosh do in fundraising before he makes it official.

I am just still shook by the self-comparison to Barack Obama(full disclosure, I got this info from a trusted friend who watched the whole thing, not from my own partial watch of the video), like... who does that?  If anything, Malcolm is the next Barack Obama.

[ctherainbow]

Neither of them's gonna be "the next Barack Obama" if Sharif - despite standing 0 chance of winning - nonetheless pulls enough votes away from Kenyatta to hand the race to Fetterman.

Sharif be like:



BUT in all seriousness, Sharif wouldn't be objectively the worst candidate, and had he entered earlier, he likely could have cleared the field of any major Philly candidates.  I've been cackling since Malcolm blindsided everyone with his announcement, as I have some professional beef with Sharif(he has done the UTMOST to stymie progressive rural Dems in PA), and would not be sad to see him lose the nomination if he runs.  

On another topic, if Malcolm doesn't snatch the Senate nom next spring, I'd love to see him take out Dwight Evans in 2024.

[ctherainbow]

Good Politico article about Fetterman and his campaign: https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2021/04/16/john-fetterman-profile-2022-senate-politics-pennsylvania-481259

I think it's a pretty fair assessment of Fetterman's strengths and weaknesses as a candidate. The points about Fetterman's weak relationships with progressive groups is an interesting one, and one I can attest to, even as a supporter. A few weeks ago, there an organizing meeting for Our Revolution PA which I was a part of. Larry Krasner gave a quick speech, and Malcolm Kenyatta and another Senate candidate named Alex Khalil were both in the Zoom call live (Kenyatta gave a very good speech). But Fetterman wasn't there in-person, he only had a quick pre-recorded message. It isn't a big deal for me, but it did seem like Kenyatta cared a lot more about connecting with activists than Fetterman.

I’m in a groupchat with the organizers of that call(honestly if you join the weekly OR PA organizing meetings, I’ve probably met you), and Fetterman was supposed to be there live.  He pissed a lot of people off by bailing out.

[ctherainbow]

Urgent update: the Fettermans were in Lancaster today and I just drove around the city for 45 minutes trying to find them but was unsuccessful. This concludes this urgent update.

Fetterman avoiding a progressive activist AGAIN?  Tsk, tsk.  He’s sunk.   

[ctherainbow]

Gee thanks, Conor.  We reeeeeeeeeeeally needed to lose that House seat.   

[ctherainbow]

Gee thanks, Conor.  We reeeeeeeeeeeally needed to lose that House seat.   

That House seat was flipping no matter what unless they split Pittsburgh.

Nah, you can scrape the south/east burbs off Pitt and give Doyle the conservative northern suburbs instead.  Pittsburgh city can stay whole and Doyle keeps a Dem seat, while Conor could remain in a Tossup seat.

[ctherainbow]

It's a real shame that it comes down to these two - Kenyatta, Dean, and Houlahan would be orders of magnitude better.

I would have to disagree that it comes down to Fetterman or Lamb; with the Western PA vote split, that opens a lane for an Eastern PA candidate, if a frontrunner amongst that swarm can emerge and successfully winnow the field (as of now, I'd say Val Arkoosh, but I'd prefer Malcolm).  None of them have as much political fame or fundraising behind them as the FetterLamb do, so I imagine it's likelier that some of them will drop out rather than Fetterman or Lamb.

Don't underestimate the electoral divide along geographic lines in PA; it's pretty weighty, and if there's a 3 or 4 way primary that features 2 Western PA candidates, it's likely one of the Eastern PA candidates who will come out on top.

[ctherainbow]

Well, there's 2/3 of the "they're definitely running for higher office" clan.  Now we just wait for Shapiro.  Planning to advocate for/vote for Kenyatta in the primary, but I won't be crushed if Lamb wins.  

Still don't understand why everyone keeps harping on about Lamb's district being "nuked" in redistricting, though:

- Wolf can veto, and the PASC will be either 5D/2R or 6D/1R after the November elections, so if they draw the maps, it's going to be at least somewhat Democratic favorable.

- While Western PA is experiencing massive population loss, Allegheny County (Democratic holdout in the area and home to the city of Pittsburgh), has shrunk by an estimated less than 1%.  Other neighboring (and far more Republican) counties like Westmoreland County are shrinking by more than 6x as much, which the exception of Butler County to the north.

- The current 18th District, which encompasses the city of Pittsburgh and other blue suburbs of Allegheny County, is around 70% Democratic.  The court could easily expand the current 18th out into redder suburban territory in Northern Allegheny, while slicing some blue off of the current 18th to give to Lamb's district (the 17th), balancing out the red territory the 17th will have to add during redistricting.

- The above works fine for Dems, as you could add only voting-age Republicans to the 18th to fill it out for redistricting, and the Dem would still have won by 90,000 votes in 2020.  A portion of the bluest suburbs could be transferred from the 18th to the 17th without endangering Dems in the 18th, and could keep Lamb's district at about the same PVI it's at now.

Thank you for coming to my TED Talk.

[ctherainbow]

If I were Kenyatta, I'd seriously consider dropping out and running for LG instead. That race is wide open and would have the added benefit of letting vote for both Fetterman and Kenyatta.

Uhhhh, as another poster has already mentioned, there’s very little chance that Malcolm will drop out and run against Brian for LG.  Brian’s been running since the spring, has had the airwaves entirely to himself, as there are no other major candidates, and they’re friends who represent portions of the same city.  While Malcolm is building a statewide profile at the moment, Brian’s had a national profile for years now, and I don’t see Malcolm winning that matchup.  If he got in, it would more likely just hand the nomination to whatever non-queer Western PA candidate decided to jump in, like Michael Lamb.

I don’t mean to drag the hell out of you, as it’s an interesting thought, but I don’t see it being a plausible path for Malcolm at the moment.

[ctherainbow]

Hell, I was BORN in Trenton and lived there until I was 6, and I have that knee-jerk dislike of New Jersey.  Many Pennsylvanians who have even deeper roots here despise the Garden State.

Through my work on some state legislative races, I’ve heard from plenty of Independents that they’re loving the Jersey Oz/Tourist Oz/Wizard of Oz remarks.  They find it both funny and accurate, and appreciate that Fetterman’s media comes off more like a dude you would have a beer with and not some stiff neck politician.

[ctherainbow]

Honestly, most Dems I know in Pennsylvania wanted Fetterman to run for Gov, not US Senate, so this wouldn't be a tragedy.