SC Megathread 2020: Graham Crackers, Cunning-Ham Sandwiches and Duncan Donuts

[Storr]

Lindsey Graham is on the Ingraham Angle right now, and he just begged for more money again. I'm watching Fox News on my television out of interest, and he's there putting in his pitch for LindsayGraham.com as always, arguing that voters need to "send him back" so that he can finish his work.

Candidates begging for money isn't all that interesting television. But having him on makes sense with ACB going through the committee under Graham's chairmanship yesterday.

[Alben Barkley]

Lou Dobbs said on Fox that he doesn’t know why anyone in South Carolina would vote for Lindsey Graham and that he needs to be “tuned out in South Carolina.” Apparently all because he isn’t kissing Trump’s ass enough (LOL) or pushing the “Obamagate” nonsense.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1317541031504711685?s=20

a risky and desperate strategy: could hurt Harrison's potential for crossover support from pro-life/pro-gun/Trump voters by bringing up these issues of disagreement and telling them their views are "too conservative for South Carolina"

You want a hint as to how many of those people exist?

Goose egg.

[Indy Texas]

Why is Lindsey Graham so unpopular in Greenville/Spartanburg?

In the 2020 primary, he was held to only a plurality of the vote in those counties despite winning 67% of the vote statewide against fragmented, weak opponents.

In the 2014 GE, the cumulative protest vote consisting of Thomas Ravenel (former Republican State Treasurer running as an independent) and the Libertarian nominee Victor Kocher got over 10% of the vote in Greenville and Spartanburg counties, while not doing as well statewide or in other Republican areas like Horry County or the Charleston or Columbia suburbs. Neither of those candidates were from that part of the state so there was no regional bump.

In the 2014 primary, those counties were among his weakest. He got only 41% of the vote in Greenville and 43% in Spartanburg while getting 56% statewide.

In the 2008 primary, he narrowly lost Greenville even though he won the primary statewide by a 2-to-1 margin. He also underperformed in Spartanburg by 10 points.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1317541031504711685?s=20

a risky and desperate strategy: could hurt Harrison's potential for crossover support from pro-life/pro-gun/Trump voters by bringing up these issues of disagreement and telling them their views are "too conservative for South Carolina"

You want a hint as to how many of those people exist?

Goose egg.

If those people didn't exist this race would not be competitive.

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1317541031504711685?s=20

a risky and desperate strategy: could hurt Harrison's potential for crossover support from pro-life/pro-gun/Trump voters by bringing up these issues of disagreement and telling them their views are "too conservative for South Carolina"

You want a hint as to how many of those people exist?

Goose egg.

If those people didn't exist this race would not be competitive.

This ad isn't meant to sway conservatives or moderates to Harrison's column. It's a very McCaskill-esque strategy of pushing conservative voters wavering on Graham to another candidate on the ballot.

Harrison will not be getting nor will he need a substantial number of Trump voters in a state as polarized as South Carolina. His key to victory is the Democratic base + disaffected anti-Graham conservatives voting third party.

The only reason this race is competitive is that he's running against Lindsey Graham.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1317541031504711685?s=20

a risky and desperate strategy: could hurt Harrison's potential for crossover support from pro-life/pro-gun/Trump voters by bringing up these issues of disagreement and telling them their views are "too conservative for South Carolina"

You want a hint as to how many of those people exist?

Goose egg.

If those people didn't exist this race would not be competitive.

This ad isn't meant to sway conservatives or moderates to Harrison's column. It's a very McCaskill-esque strategy of pushing conservative voters wavering on Graham to another candidate on the ballot.

Harrison will not be getting nor will he need a substantial number of Trump voters in a state as polarized as South Carolina. His key to victory is the Democratic base + disaffected anti-Graham conservatives voting third party.

The only reason this race is competitive is that he's running against Lindsey Graham.

best numbers for Biden in polling in SC are 45 or 46%.   Bledsoe would have to do way better than expected for that to be enough for Harrison.  And any pro-life or pro-gun voters who are supporting Biden are not people Harrison can afford to insult.

[Tiger08]

Why is Lindsey Graham so unpopular in Greenville/Spartanburg?

In the 2020 primary, he was held to only a plurality of the vote in those counties despite winning 67% of the vote statewide against fragmented, weak opponents.

In the 2014 GE, the cumulative protest vote consisting of Thomas Ravenel (former Republican State Treasurer running as an independent) and the Libertarian nominee Victor Kocher got over 10% of the vote in Greenville and Spartanburg counties, while not doing as well statewide or in other Republican areas like Horry County or the Charleston or Columbia suburbs. Neither of those candidates were from that part of the state so there was no regional bump.

In the 2014 primary, those counties were among his weakest. He got only 41% of the vote in Greenville and 43% in Spartanburg while getting 56% statewide.

In the 2008 primary, he narrowly lost Greenville even though he won the primary statewide by a 2-to-1 margin. He also underperformed in Spartanburg by 10 points.

Greenville and Spartanburg Counties have a lot of very conservative (especially socially conservative) voters who still think of Graham as a McCain-esque RINO

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Why is Lindsey Graham so unpopular in Greenville/Spartanburg?

In the 2020 primary, he was held to only a plurality of the vote in those counties despite winning 67% of the vote statewide against fragmented, weak opponents.

In the 2014 GE, the cumulative protest vote consisting of Thomas Ravenel (former Republican State Treasurer running as an independent) and the Libertarian nominee Victor Kocher got over 10% of the vote in Greenville and Spartanburg counties, while not doing as well statewide or in other Republican areas like Horry County or the Charleston or Columbia suburbs. Neither of those candidates were from that part of the state so there was no regional bump.

In the 2014 primary, those counties were among his weakest. He got only 41% of the vote in Greenville and 43% in Spartanburg while getting 56% statewide.

In the 2008 primary, he narrowly lost Greenville even though he won the primary statewide by a 2-to-1 margin. He also underperformed in Spartanburg by 10 points.

As Tiger said, these areas have a lot of folks, even in the suburbs, who think Graham is a RINO. My only guess as to why Oconee and Pickens aren't worse for him is that he used to represent that area before he became a Senator.

[DrScholl]

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1317541031504711685?s=20

a risky and desperate strategy: could hurt Harrison's potential for crossover support from pro-life/pro-gun/Trump voters by bringing up these issues of disagreement and telling them their views are "too conservative for South Carolina"

You want a hint as to how many of those people exist?

Goose egg.

If those people didn't exist this race would not be competitive.

This ad isn't meant to sway conservatives or moderates to Harrison's column. It's a very McCaskill-esque strategy of pushing conservative voters wavering on Graham to another candidate on the ballot.

Harrison will not be getting nor will he need a substantial number of Trump voters in a state as polarized as South Carolina. His key to victory is the Democratic base + disaffected anti-Graham conservatives voting third party.

The only reason this race is competitive is that he's running against Lindsey Graham.

best numbers for Biden in polling in SC are 45 or 46%.   Bledsoe would have to do way better than expected for that to be enough for Harrison.  And any pro-life or pro-gun voters who are supporting Biden are not people Harrison can afford to insult.

I think you are missing the point here. There are going to be almost zero Trump-Harrison voters and that is not who Harrison is counting on to win this race. He's trying to convince Trump voters to vote for the Constitution Party in the Senate race as opposed to Graham.

The voters who are truly up for grabs are moderates who have voted GOP in the past but are supporting Biden. That's why Graham has name checked Joe Cunningham, because he's trying to get Biden voters to split their tickets. He certainly can't name check Biden, so he is using Cunningham.

[Panda Express]

Fox News Cuts Off Lindsey Graham In The Middle Of His Latest Money Plea


Fox News may have had enough of the South Carolina senator’s desperate bids for cash. Here's a supercut

https://twitter.com/i/status/1321163458897940483

[wbrocks67]

LMAO the fact that we are less than a week out and he is STILL begging for cash makes me think Harrison still has a very good chance

[Sirius_]

Lately I've been seeing Bledsoe ads. Not the Harrison ones, these are explicitly pro-Bledsoe ads that some pac is running, and they criticize Graham (haven't seen any that mention Harrison).

[Blair]

Has this race gone really quiet or is there just nothing to report on?

[Pollster]

Has this race gone really quiet or is there just nothing to report on?

Since it's now well-known among people who consume these kinds of stories that Harrison has put the race in play, there is no need for or clicks to be gotten from "Harrison Stuns in South Carolina!" or "Lindsey Graham Unexpectedly in Competitive Race" headlines.

[gerritcole]

Has this race gone really quiet or is there just nothing to report on?

harrison's at 47, it'll be very hard for him to get that last push w/o 3rd party voting

[Panda Express]

Lately I've been seeing Bledsoe ads. Not the Harrison ones, these are explicitly pro-Bledsoe ads that some pac is running, and they criticize Graham (haven't seen any that mention Harrison).

Is it this one?

https://twitter.com/i/status/1321167823817920514

[Sirius_]

Lately I've been seeing Bledsoe ads. Not the Harrison ones, these are explicitly pro-Bledsoe ads that some pac is running, and they criticize Graham (haven't seen any that mention Harrison).

Is it this one?

https://twitter.com/i/status/1321167823817920514

No it was Liberty SC or something like that.

[Zanas]

So this race wasn't at all competitive after all... Like quite a number of other races that the polls fooled us into believing would be

[Calthrina950]

So this race wasn't at all competitive after all... Like quite a number of other races that the polls fooled us into believing would be

And it appears that Cornyn and Graham are widening their margins as more votes are counted. These races truly were fool's gold for the Democrats, as it appears that undecideds broke heavily for Republicans in both states.

[lfromnj]

So this race wasn't at all competitive after all... Like quite a number of other races that the polls fooled us into believing would be

And it appears that Cornyn and Graham are widening their margins as more votes are counted. These races truly were fool's gold for the Democrats, as it appears that undecideds broke heavily for Republicans in both states.

Graham should close in although its still certainly Safe, Columbia is still 100% out.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

My post mortem is the same as my pre mortem:

Lean R, closer to Likely than Toss-Up. I wouldn't completely rule out an upset, but I think undecideds probably break for Graham.

Wrong just like Icespear and you said KY Gov was Likely R, how is a two point race Likely R

For one thing, SC has party line voting, so there will be some who vote R without casting an explicit vote for Graham.

Graham definitely benefited from people being able to vote for the party without voting for him directly.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I am pretty shocked at the results last night. I did not think Cunningham would lose, and I am really shocked that Graham won by over 10%.

[Huey Long is a Republican]

Well, that goes to show you to not waste money in fruitless endeavors unless you are absolutely, 100% certain you can win it. Both parties did it this cycle, but it seems the Democrats did it moreso than the Republicans.

[Calthrina950]

Well, that goes to show you to not waste money in fruitless endeavors unless you are absolutely, 100% certain you can win it. Both parties did it this cycle, but it seems the Democrats did it moreso than the Republicans.

Agreed. South Carolina, it is clear from these results, will remain Safe R at all levels for the foreseeable future.