ND-SEN: But you are, Blanche, you are

[ON Progressive]

This race is still Likely Republican.

This race is still TITANIUM REPUBLICAN and Heitkamp will be thrown out by BIGOTS (sexual assault doesn't exist, abolish #MeToo) and the Democrats will LOSE 24 seats to the Republicans in the senate creating the largest republican majority in nearly 100 YEARS

[ON Progressive]

Cramer cucked again:

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/01/koch-political-network-supports-heitkamp-for-bank-deregulation-bill.html?__source=sharebar|twitter&par=sharebar

Cramer must be having the worst week of his life.

[ON Progressive]

Cramer cucked again:

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/01/koch-political-network-supports-heitkamp-for-bank-deregulation-bill.html?__source=sharebar|twitter&par=sharebar

Cramer must be having the worst week of his life.

His son died last year

Nevermind then. Forgot about that.

[ON Progressive]

Rep. Cramer comes across as really whiny in this WaPost article about Trump support for Heitkamp

I'm starting to be more confident in Heitkamp than I am in Nelson at this point.

[ON Progressive]

This quote from said article mentioned earlier is almost comically absurd:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[ON Progressive]

Obviously the line of attack will be SCOTUS, with the aim being twofold: 1. To create a wedge issue where Cramer can demonstrate he will be much more dependable to conservatives on, and 2. To pressure Heitkamp to vote for the nominee. If she does, she will depress her base a bit but appease swing voters, if she doesn’t, she honestly probably just loses. The obsession of this forum on nonsense buzzwords like ‘retail politics’ is bizarre. She’s a strong politician who is going to have a tightrope to wall across, just like the other deep red state Democrats (and arguably a tougher path than any other senator - at least Montana and Missouri and Indiana were 20 point losses with some down ballot Dem support, while WV is historically Democratic. Meanwhile, ND was a 36 point loss in 2016 and has a much weaker Democratic tradition than WV...).

Lean R, toss up if Heitkamp votes for the nominee in a non controversial fashion (aka the nominee would be confirmed anyway).

You think most people care for SCOTUS when the majority of Americans can’t even name a single judge? Lmao.

[ON Progressive]

Heitkamp is someone who could really get screwed over the SCOTUS nomination, if she votes no she gives up any pretense of being a moderate and likely loses several centrist/conservative votes. If she votes yeas she risks alienating the far left that is funding her campaign

I don't think communists and anarchists are funding her, or even voting for her considering many communists/anarchists refuse to vote because of their ideology.

Terms like "far left" don't mean "someone I disagree with."

[ON Progressive]

I doubt this will move many votes in ND

It doesn't need to.

Just moving the needle slightly can make a huge difference.

Yeah. If Heitkamp ekes out a narrow win this November, how incredible would it be that the Kavanaugh nomination took away a critical senate seat from the Republicans?

If nothing else, it would hopefully stop the myth that SCOTUS vacancies help Republicans.

[ON Progressive]

Did the partisan lean erase those gains in 2012?

ND has shifted hard towards the GOP since then.

[ON Progressive]

Did the partisan lean erase those gains in 2012?

ND has shifted hard towards the GOP since then.

So has Iowa, and yet...

Iowa went to Trump by 10, ND went to Trump by 36. Two completely uncomparable states. Also, IA has swung back hard while Trump is over 55% approval in ND.

[ON Progressive]

Heitkamp is finished and she knows it



The other Poll who had Cramer up 10 want Kavernaugh confirmed something like 60-27.

From the SRA Poll that had Cramer up 10

So 34% of highly partisan and already motivated Cramer voters claimed it would of made them less likely to vote for someone they werent going to vote for anyway.

Noted

https://twitter.com/politicoalex/status/1047934249930772480

Either the race is completely over, or the NRCC is making another really stupid decision by forfeiting the entirety of the airwaves.

No...its just idiot strategists think a SCOTUS vote matters in a country where only 1% can name all 9 Justices

Well, Scott Brown didn't vote for Elena Kagan to be Associate SCOTUS Justice when he was in the Senate and that's why he lost in the end in 2012 and you keep telling us a SCOTUS Vote doesn't matter. Give me a break!

Scott Brown wouldn’t have won if he voted for Kagan LMAO. He lost because he was a Republican running in a good Dem year in Massachusetts.

[ON Progressive]

What is the case for Heitkamp potentially out-performing polls. 

Also- what is the best case that could me made for why/how Heitkamp could end up still beating Cramer?

The case for Heitkamp outperforming polls is that she already did so in 2012 because ND polling is hard, and that this is a Democratic leaning environment. My issue with that thinking is that ND is extremely different from the rest of the nation (very white, very rural, VERY Republican), and Heitkamp at least had some good polls in 2012. Also, polls did overestimate the D wave in 2006 and the R wave in 2010 so wave years don’t mean overperforming polls.

The only way I see Heitkamp winning is if the polls are somehow more GOP leaning than 2012, and I find a state like ND having a dozen point polling error in favour of a Democrat very implausible.

[ON Progressive]

It should not be ignored that if elected, Cramer will be a much more influential Senator than Heitkamp. He's made his mark in the House and his personal magnetism is far bigger than Hawley, or Morrissey, or Braun, or Rosendale, or McSally.

Oh, good grief.

Anyway, I think the first debate was supposed to be tonight but is being rescheduled because of the Kavanaugh craziness? Correct me if I'm wrong

Yup. https://twitter.com/HeidiHeitkamp/status/1047906217002237954

[ON Progressive]

As if Heidi weren't in enough trouble already, this makes it even worse. North Dakota can now safely be called an autocracy instead of a democracy for denying tens of thousands of its own people the right to vote.

[ON Progressive]

What I'm confused about is why the Purcell principle did not apply here? This is a major rule very close to an election, and SCOTUS has blocked other changes in the past. What is the rationale this time? This seems like a pretty clear cut idea. If you want to suddenly create new requirements to vote (or allow existing ones to go into effect), don't do it just a month or two before a general election.

The 8th Circuit lifted the District Circuit's stay in September - before any ballots were mailed out. They ruled the Purcell didn't apply at that time. The Supreme Court just upheld what was ruled on in September.

http://media.ca8.uscourts.gov/opndir/18/09/181725P.pdf

As to the effect of this, even the District Court acknowledged that about 13x more non-Native Americans didn't have the proper ID at the time of their decision than Native Americans. Given Native Americans' already anemic voter participation rate, requiring a voter ID might actually preclude more Republicans from voting than Democrats.

Would be amazing if this ended up being a self-own.

[ON Progressive]

Interesting:

https://morningconsult.com/2018/10/10/americas-most-and-least-popular-senators-10-10/

Brand new approvals for all 100 senators, and Heidi is above Trump in net approval.

I'm absolutely sure Trump's approval is -5 in ND when Trump's approval is -7 in PA. /s

[ON Progressive]

Early Vote so far in ND: 34k ballots have been turned in

Can anything be gleamed from these 34k? 

FWIW, I heard turnout isn’t great in the west of the state.

[ON Progressive]

Democrats are held to a far higher standard than Republicans, especially in red states.

Which is why Menendez will lose while Moore won.

Moore won 91% of Republicans.

[ON Progressive]

Democrats are held to a far higher standard than Republicans, especially in red states.

Which is why Menendez will lose while Moore won.

What is it with Republicans comparing corruption with pedophila?

Because Menendez is accused of pedophilia as well?

By right wing blogs with no credibility. There's been no mainstream exposure for this accusation. 90% of voters probably don't even know about it. It's deliberately obtuse to compare that to Roy Moore's pedophilia which nearly every single person who voted in that election knew about, and which nearly a dozen women publicly came forward and accused him of.

RI unironically posted a tweet from a random with 1500 followers linking to a Daily Caller post accusing Steve Sisolak of domestic abuse, so I don't think he cares if it comes from just "right wing blogs"

[ON Progressive]

https://twitter.com/JamesOKeefeIII/status/1054805360429686784


This is what this traitor deserves for betraying the interests of her constituents. ENJOY GETTING BLANCHED!

I don't think James O'Keefe has ever swung a single vote towards anybody ever. Nobody cares what that "journalist" thinks other than guaranteed Republican voters.

[ON Progressive]

Heidi has been project veritas'd.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qQMP-l8eB6s

Lol, who even cares though, she was going to lose regardless.

Like I said earlier, nobody other than guaranteed Republican voters cares about James O'Keefe.

[ON Progressive]

Cramer up 9 in the new poll. LOL at everyone who thought Heidi still had a chance because Joe Biden, her brother, and other random people on Twitter said so.

They also showed Donnelly winning by 7 and a tie in MO, so yeah, bad news for her. It must be absolutely humiliating to lose as an incumbent in a tidal wave for your party, especially if you’re the reason your party fails to take the Senate.

2018 is not a "tidal wave" for the Democratic Party. If it were, no Democratic incumbents would lose, in either the House or Senate, and Democrats would have a very strong shot at picking up Arizona, Nevada, Texas, and Tennessee. At best, it is a blue "ripple", enough to flip the House, some governorships, and several state legislatures, but not enough to take the Senate or to make even more penetrative gains at the state level.

With how bad the Senate map is (we’re talking historically bad), it was always a super long shot for Democrats to take the Senate even in a tsunami.

[ON Progressive]

The Dem's closing message: https://demnpl.com/by-voting-in-north-dakota-you-could-forfeit-your-hunting-licenses/

I thought only Republicans tried to suppress the vote?

Yes, because a website is totally the same thing as Republican state governments implementing voter ID laws designed to make it as hard as possible for minorities to vote.