Californians paying zero attention to governor's race (user search)
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  Californians paying zero attention to governor's race (search mode)
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Author Topic: Californians paying zero attention to governor's race  (Read 3545 times)
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jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,802


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« on: November 04, 2014, 06:07:41 AM »

40% of likely voters don't know Jerry Brown is running for re-election.
Only 1 in 5 voters could name Neel Kashkari as his opponent.

http://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/matier-ross/article/40-of-voters-unaware-Jerry-Brown-is-seeking-5865196.php
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jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,802


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« Reply #1 on: November 05, 2014, 02:11:24 AM »

Kashkari just lives in the wrong state. He would be much better off in neighboring states of Nevada or Arizona

     I saw him speak once. He is a very intelligent and well-spoken person, but there was no way he was going to win this race.

Are you sure?  After what happened in Maryland, I think anything is possible in California now...  Tongue

     If all else fails, we re-elect incumbents. Tongue Last time an incumbent Governor was defeated was 1966.

You can't recall an election in 2003?
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jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,802


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« Reply #2 on: November 05, 2014, 03:13:28 AM »

Kashkari just lives in the wrong state. He would be much better off in neighboring states of Nevada or Arizona

     I saw him speak once. He is a very intelligent and well-spoken person, but there was no way he was going to win this race.

Are you sure?  After what happened in Maryland, I think anything is possible in California now...  Tongue

     If all else fails, we re-elect incumbents. Tongue Last time an incumbent Governor was defeated was 1966.

You can't recall an election in 2003?

     I went back and forth on whether to count that one, because the dynamics of a recall election are so different from a normal vote. It's also worth noting that the year before, Gray Davis won re-election while being as popular as Ebola.

Well, put a different way, no Democratic California governor not named Edmund Brown has ever been governor for more than 5 years.
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jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,802


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« Reply #3 on: November 05, 2014, 03:43:16 PM »

Republicans are winning an assembly district in the Bay Area. This is an inner east bay suburban district and this is not the sort of place that has a large drop in turnout in midterm elections. I grew up here and I watched it turn from a Republican area into a Democratic area that kicked out Richard Pombo and elected Jerry Mcnerney. Maybe things are turning back as Democrats stick to their union allies and don't work for the people of California.
http://vote.sos.ca.gov/returns/state-assembly/district/16/

I think inner would mean 510 area code not 925 area code. We'll see who wins when all the votes are counted. Still pretty weird.

Millions more ballots remain to be counted.

Yeah, honesty I should just check back in two weeks.

Our current Secretary of State sucks, and the office as a whole is terribly inefficient and ineffective. Bowen was just planning to use that office as a stepping stone, but luckily lost the primary for a seat in Congress.

Not that Padilla will likely be any better. He's trying to move up in the ranks too, doubt he cares at all about being Secretary of State. Who knows, maybe he'll surprise everyone and do something groundbreaking like fixing their website...

Better a Democratic SoS that counts votes slow but reliably than a Republican SoS who steals elections.
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jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,802


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« Reply #4 on: November 05, 2014, 03:44:31 PM »

Low turnout destroyed down ballot Democrats in California. Just look at the even-ish PVI districts like Assembly 65, where the margin should have been tight, but Sharon Quirk-Silva got wiped out.

Democrats lost (I believe) the supermajorities in the Assembly and Senate as a result.

I think they only had a 2/3rds majority in the state Senate because the districts up in 2012 really favored them after redistricting.
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○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,802


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« Reply #5 on: November 05, 2014, 11:24:22 PM »

All of California suffered from poor turnout but it really affected the result in Southern California and the Central Valley. In the end Brown should carry SD county when everything is counted but the margin of victory for Kashkari in San Bernardino is quite shocking. I am surprised Aguilar could hang on in that environment.

Wait until the votes are counted to talk about turnout.
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