TX-GOV 2022: If TX GOP loses here, what next?

[Skill and Chance]

If Abbott runs, he will likely win, but not by a landslide.  It could be quite close if Trump is still president, not to mention Abbott may retire after 2 terms anyway.

[Skill and Chance]

Could Cuellar run for governor to avoid being primaried?

No way he makes it through a statewide Dem primary, especially with a midterm primary electorate.

It's an open primary.  The more moderate candidate for gov in 2018 got 47% in the runoff, with the Hispanic vote firmly behind the more liberal winner.  If Cuellar can add South Texas to Andrew White's coalition (without losing too much ground in Houston, where White lived), he can most definitely win.

[Skill and Chance]

I will say this.  If Abbott runs and loses, it's an Arkansas 2014 situation and Texas is going to vote 60% for losing Dem presidential candidates soon.  He's the strongest of the statewide GOP by a mile, so I expect him to have a 3rd term if he wants it. 

[Skill and Chance]

O'Rourke's profile has been popping up again and again with the current power grid crisis. He'll likely declare soon.

Yup, it’s Beto’s time to shine (pt. 3). Any hesitancy that he had due to family reasons are probably erased by watching tens of thousands of people struggle.

Will he run? Soon. Will he win? I’m very skeptical, but the winter disaster may wake some people up. May.

Abbott is just very strong and it's likely too late to influence redistricting (census delays could complicate this somewhat).  It would be better for TX Dems to focus on LG and especially AG.  Against a top tier Dem candidate, Paxton could lose in an otherwise Republican leaning year.