LA and NC 2016 Congressional Races

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

What is the buzz for Vitter's successor should he win? Scalise's elevation to the whip post, alone, does not rule him out unless he has publicly stated that is where he would prefer to remain.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Burr leads Cowell and Foxx 44/38, Hagan 46/43.

So much for the "Burr would demolish Hagan easily" narrative. This race will clearly be very competitive.

The narrative is built on his past history of crushing his opponents late in the campaign season. The numbers with Marshall were rather close for much of the season and he trailed Bowles. I don't think he will wait quite that long to take action, probably move to define the race in the mid to late Spring or early summer period instead. Either way, a poll showing a close race almost two years out isn't sufficient to end that narrative.

It will be competative in the beginning, even if he does eventually demolish her. Whatever the margin, I am fairly certain Burr wins unless Hillary wins the state by an at least somewhat decent single digit margin or greater.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Mike McIntyre is intolerable... He used to represent my district (NC-7), and he's arguably more conservative than the actual Republican currently representing our district, David Rouzer.

I would take any other Democrat over McIntyre any day, even if they're less likely to win.

Statistics says otherwise: while McIntyre is, undoubtely, a conservative Democrat, he is much LESS conservative then Rouzer. And, btw, NO democrat, but him, can win present 7th, your wish notwithstanding. It's a FACT. I like to say that if the only Democrat, who can win a particular District, is to the right of James Eastland - Democrats mst run him. Ditto - for Republicans (with Eastland substituted for Jacob Javits and right for left)

P.S. If you want to see REALLY conservative Democrat - look who represented this district in early 70th. He was a REAL conservative Democrat, and, may be, would really be as conservative as Rouzer is..

I would have voted for McIntyre if he had run again but he didn't.

I now live in the 13th so the point is moot anyway.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

^ The thing is Jones always overperforms in the general because a lot of registered Democrats vote for him. He and Coble were the only two House Republicans in the state to run ahead of Romney in 2012, IIRC.

Jones votes his conscience, which is refreshing, but problematic from a fundraising/purity perspective. He's mavericky on fiscal issues (calling to repeal Glass-Steagall and Citizens United, for example). Jones is also known for his pacifism on foreign policy - since he represents many military personnel, he was disgusted at the Bush neocons for lying to him about the war and has been in the Ron Paul faction of the party ever since.

Taylor Griffin, a former Bush staffer and lobbyist, ran last year and, was endorsed by Sarah Palin. As you'd expect, Griffin was bankrolled largely by the defense industry and K Street.

The primary this year is will be held with the Presidential primary and should thus generate larger turnout. Good for Jones, considering NC primaries are still open and he has more crossover appeal. Its earlier too, in mid-March compared to early May as in previous years. If, for example, Rand Paul is still in the race, thats would probably help Jones downballot.

Also notice on the map that Jones generally did better in counties with more NC natives, who remember his father. In Carteret and Craven counties, for example, you've seen a steady influx of new, wealthier residents looking for beachfront property - obviously this crowd isn't as loyal to the Jones family.

The county to watch will be Onslow. Its relatively neutral in terms of Jones' base being Pitt and Griffin's being Craven. It went for Jones last time but only by 2.5%.

I hope Jones can pull through again.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Disgraceful.

I got put in a district with Wilmington. I move further away from Wake Country than I was and end up in a district dominated by Wake County.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

NC-03: Jones gets endorsed by Phyllis Schlafly's PAC. Ugh, and I'd still rather him over Taylor Griffin any day.

Immigration issue at work there.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

What was the reason for combining LA and NC in the first place?

Its started out as a personal thing for me. When I started doing this in 2014, I was ping-ponging back between the two states and wanted to put things in one thread.

It started in 2014? For some reason I thought you were doing these for more cycles than that.