Is the immigration issue becoming toxic for Trump?

[American2020]

The Political Price of Cruelty

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2018/06/stephen-millers-family-separation-policy-is-already-backfiring.html

[TheSaint250]

I hope this disgusting act brings down his administration.

[tallguy23]

I hope this disgusting act brings down his administration.

This is genuinely the worst thing he's done (among many). I've felt sick to my stomach the whole day and just want to cry.

This is not the nation we are supposed to be.

[KingSweden]

I hope this disgusting act brings down his administration.

[Maxwell]

I'm skeptical. I believe his base is fully converted to the idea that immigrants are not worthy of being treated with humanity and deserve all of the horrible things that the Trump deportation force is going to give them. I hope I'm proven wrong.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Trump has lost The Mooch and Cruz on this one:



http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2018/06/18/sen-ted-cruz-introduces-emergency-bill-to-keep-immigrant-families-together-slams-dems-proposal.html

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Is anyone taking bets on how far down the coward Donald Trump (R-Moscow) will ride this particular train to failure before stabs one of his subordinates in the back so that he can use their (metaphorical) corpse as a brake before he jumps off?

[Person Man]

I hope this disgusting act brings down his administration.

[Koharu]

Wow. I'm in shock to see the Mooch going against Trump on this, though it looks like he's trying to blame "advisors" instead of Trump himself.

My only hope in this horrible situation is that this opens the eyes of enough evangelicals to turn against him. I wish they would have seen him for who he is much earlier, but late is better than never.

[Badger]

His child separation policy and detention camp are definitely hurting him. Is it enough to make a difference?

Idk...

Nothing makes sense anymore. The press doesn't know how to handle Drumpf, Republicans are too scared to actually stand up to him, and the Democrats are still struggling to get a word in edgewise.

Everything is so muddled and up in the air that it's near impossible to know what is actually going on in this country.

The midterms will be the true test, but I'm at loss as to what is going on right now...

This is an accurate take.

This is an extremely inaccurate take. Anyone who thinks the Republicans aren't standing up to Trump is insane. The Republican leadership has refused to act on his immigration platform, which they never supported. No one in Congress has ever bothered to introduce a bill advocating the policies he advocated during the campaign (total moratorium), instead they introduced a compromise bill that that only cuts immigration but half but even that hasn't been voted on. Republicans keep trying to pass DACA with only flimsy, lip-servce-y concessions to immigration restrictionists and they only fail to pass because the Democrats are so extreme and support amnesty of all current and future illegal aliens (de facto open borders).

That’s because total moratorium restrictionists like yourself are a gang of un-American fringe lunatics, and there’s no real support in either party for a total moratorium of all immigrarion. Take your xenophobic closed border boner somewhere else

[BlueSwan]

Yep. Americans oppose the separation policy by a 39-point margin:

What this poll tells you is that democrats oppose it overwhelmingly, while republicans support it. The question is whether the republicans who oppose it will vote for democrats over republicans due to this issue. I'd bet good money that the answer to that question is a resounding "no" for the vast majority of that minority. As 2016 showed there are plenty of republicans who don't like Trump but will find an excuse to vote for him anyway.

[TDAS04]

I hope this disgusting act brings down his administration.

[Kodak]

Yep. Americans oppose the separation policy by a 39-point margin:

What this poll tells you is that democrats oppose it overwhelmingly, while republicans support it. The question is whether the republicans who oppose it will vote for democrats over republicans due to this issue. I'd bet good money that the answer to that question is a resounding "no" for the vast majority of that minority. As 2016 showed there are plenty of republicans who don't like Trump but will find an excuse to vote for him anyway.

It's more likely that 35% would stay home than vote at all, like with Roy Moore.

If the policy is ended soon, a lot of those Republicans would probably forgive and forget. But the GOP really can't afford to have 5% of their base staying home, let alone 35%.

[Consciously Unconscious]

His supporters don't care.  They'll only care when Trump jumps off this issue and blames it on someone else.  Then they'll say they cared all along and that it was the dems/Rinos fault.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Good way to look at it:

https://twitter.com/StuPolitics/status/1009190791116394496

[Progressive Pessimist]

The family separation issue is, in my opinion, a clear winner for Democrats and Anti-Trumpers. Basically every religious organization in the country has condemned it. I haven't seen recent polling, but I am sure that it is extremely unpopular among the American public. If I were Schumer or Pelosi, I'd be instructing my caucus to try to get booked on as many cable news shows as possible bringing attention to the issue. Jacky Rosen and Kyrsten Sinema can easily use this to their advantage by tying their opponents to the Drumpf administration's policy in their Hispanic-heavy states. Get some marches going. Do some sit-ins or unannounced arrivals at these camps, like Jeff Merkley did. Make a big deal. Some argued that the Democratic opposition to the Tax Bill was hyperbolic, but it's hard to be hyperbolic with family separation. It literally is inhumane by every definition of the word.

Your result is:
1) Drumpf/GOP gets rid of family separation and the reversal can be painted as an effective victory for the #resistance.
2) They don't and it shifts the immigration polling to the Democrats before the midterms.

This issue has gotten so bad for Trump and the GOP that LimoLiberal is saying this!

[DINGO Joe]

Yes

[here2view]

Yes, this is a losing issue for him. The public opinion is not in his favor, nor is the moral issue of the manner.

[BlueSwan]

Despite polls like these I HIGHLY doubt that immigration will be a losing cause for republicans.

In Europe, during the last two decades, anti-immigration has been nothing but a winning cause for the right. Basically, if immigration has been the hot topic in an election, then the right wingers have won. For years, people assumed that this was a European thing and that the same couldn't happen in the US, with the US essentially being an immigrant country AND the US only having very few muslim immigrants, but 2016 pretty much proved that notion wrong. There is a VERY big audience for scape-goat politics (whether the target are muslims, mexicans, africans, jews or any other minority for the right - or even billionaires, wall street and bankers for the left) and white identity politics, particularly amongst the working class.

So why do I doubt the polls? Because the polls have been similar here in Denmark for decades. Just looking at the polls would not tell you that there is still an immense appetite for anti-immigration measures, but there is. Social desirability bias explains some of this, but another more important thing is that VERY FEW PEOPLE will get motivated to go to vote based on the idea that minorities are being treated unfairly, while a HUGE NUMBER OF PEOPLE will go to vote based on getting tough on immigration. So it really doesn't matter if some draconian anti-immigration bill only has 30% support if those 30% vote based on that bill and the 70% who are against it, does not.

A couple of weeks have passed and unfortunately I have seen nothing to indicate that I was wrong in my initial assessment. Infact, I had actually expected Trump to see a shortterm dive in the polls only to rebound a few weeks later, but so far the polls have been more or less stagnant. Trump probably could have continued to seperate families forcefully without it hurting him.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Despite polls like these I HIGHLY doubt that immigration will be a losing cause for republicans.

In Europe, during the last two decades, anti-immigration has been nothing but a winning cause for the right. Basically, if immigration has been the hot topic in an election, then the right wingers have won. For years, people assumed that this was a European thing and that the same couldn't happen in the US, with the US essentially being an immigrant country AND the US only having very few muslim immigrants, but 2016 pretty much proved that notion wrong. There is a VERY big audience for scape-goat politics (whether the target are muslims, mexicans, africans, jews or any other minority for the right - or even billionaires, wall street and bankers for the left) and white identity politics, particularly amongst the working class.

So why do I doubt the polls? Because the polls have been similar here in Denmark for decades. Just looking at the polls would not tell you that there is still an immense appetite for anti-immigration measures, but there is. Social desirability bias explains some of this, but another more important thing is that VERY FEW PEOPLE will get motivated to go to vote based on the idea that minorities are being treated unfairly, while a HUGE NUMBER OF PEOPLE will go to vote based on getting tough on immigration. So it really doesn't matter if some draconian anti-immigration bill only has 30% support if those 30% vote based on that bill and the 70% who are against it, does not.

A couple of weeks have passed and unfortunately I have seen nothing to indicate that I was wrong in my initial assessment. Infact, I had actually expected Trump to see a shortterm dive in the polls only to rebound a few weeks later, but so far the polls have been more or less stagnant. Trump probably could have continued to seperate families forcefully without it hurting him.

I disagree.  The majority of polls have indeed shown a decline for Trump in the last week or so; he's gone from -8.8 to -10.5 in the 538 average.  Remember that there's a time lag involved.  News has to filter into public opinion, and polls are generally in the field for a few days and then in post-processing for another day or two more before they're released.