Nov. 10 Fox Business GOP debate criteria released: 2.5% poll average required

[Likely Voter]

I was looking at the polls and there actually is a scenario where Christie gets in. If Fox wanted him in they could just reject the NBC poll (question wording), IBD poll (not 'major') and the CBS poll (they could find reasons). That would leave Fox's own poll (where Chrsitie got 2%) and the latest from Quinni, ABC and Monmouth where he got 3%.  And if they picked those four it would also allow both Jindal and Pataki into the kiddie table, so the debate would end up exactly the same lineups as CNBC. The irony would be that Christie would be saved (in part) by Monmouth, a polling company he once said had it out for him.

[Senator Cris]

It's a shame that a so talented politician (regardless of political orientation, even Rachel Maddow said that), that's having a momentum (he's growing in all national polls, he's growing 6 points in NH and is now beating Jeb in this state and he's close to him in national poll), that had 3 good debate performances out of 3 debates is out of the main debate and that someone like Paul or Huckabee is in the main debate, but these are the rules.

Christie is also one of the most incompetent governors in the country who made his state even more Democratic than it already is. He has governed over multiple credit downgrades and very bad economy

That's your opinion.

[The Other Castro]

I don't see a reason why CBS would be excluded (the wording seems fine), but on second look it does seem like Fox might indeed exclude NBC. The only polls I'm positive will be part of the average are FOX and Quinnipiac.

The third and fourth polls are definitely conflicts due to the questionable statuses of IBD and NBC, which could lead to any two-poll combination of CBS, IBD, and NBC polls being used. If we end up with Fox, Quinnipiac, and CBS as the first three polls, and NBC and IBD are excluded, how will they choose between ABC and Monmouth? They were both conducted over the same time frame, but ABC was technically released one day later than Monmouth.

This will be kind of a moot point in a few hours once they announce the lineup, but I could see them counting both ABC and Monmouth and taking the average of the last 5 polls instead. Even after all that, Christie is still at only 2.4%, but Graham, Santorum, Jindal and Pataki all make the kiddie table debate.

[Likely Voter]

I see no reason why they would exclude CBS, my point was that if they wanted Christie in the main debate they would have to exclude CBS because all other scenarios end up with Christie out of the main debate. I don't think that will happen because while Fox News may be biased I actually trust their pollsters and the 'Decision Desk' people. But you never know, if Ailes really wanted Christie then maybe he would find a way to exert pressure to make it happen.

We will know if five hours but I am starting to think the final list will be Fox, Quinni, CBS, ABC and Monmouth (extending to five polls because ABC and Monmouth are the same age). That gives you this list

MAIN
Trump   26.40
Carson   22.40
Rubio   9.80
Cruz   8.80
Bush   5.40
Fiorina   4.80
Huckabee   3.20
Paul   3.20
Kasich   2.80

KIDDIE
Christie   2.40
Graham   0.80
Santorum   0.40
Jindal   0.20
Pataki   0.20

OUT
Gilmore

This also has the advantage of putting Trump center stage (he is more entertaining than Carson) and it puts Jindal and Pataki into the kiddie table, and more candidates probably makes that more interesting as well.

[The Other Castro]

^ That does seem to be the most plausible scenario in my opinion.

[Penelope]

Ideally the requirement would have been a 3.5% poll average for the main debate, leaving us with only the top 6. But it's definitely a step in the right direction.

[retromike22]

Ideally the requirement would have been a 3.5% poll average for the main debate, leaving us with only the top 6.

I like that idea too, I'd prefer to have the two debates with as equal a number as possible.

[Maxwell]

I would be in favor of a 5% minimum, to get rid of Snarly Carly.

[Likely Voter]

One bit of good news for cord-cutters, Foxbusiness.com will stream for free.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Was it 7 pm EST that they were going to release the debate lineups?

[Likely Voter]

Christie says he is willing to go to the undercard...

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CLOSING THREAD IN FAVOR OF NEW POST-ANNOUNCEMENT THREAD
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