Arizona megathread (user search)
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May 20, 2024, 10:39:51 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

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  Arizona megathread (search mode)
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Author Topic: Arizona megathread  (Read 71647 times)
Oryxslayer
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« on: November 15, 2022, 03:09:18 PM »
Quote from: 2016 on November 15, 2022, 02:04:09 PM
Abe Hamadeh is only down by less than 3,000 Votes now to Kris Mayes.

Votes remaining, not all will be counted cause votes waiting to be cured are included in the totals, and not all will be.

At worst, Maricopa and the Dem counties cancel out, lead remains tight, recount for this and the Superintendent races is guaranteed.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1 on: November 15, 2022, 09:09:05 PM »
Maricopa dropped. Mayes still leads by 771 votes, without the daily Pima drop reported yet. So yeah, she'll probably be leading into the recount between this and the reservation vote.

Horne lead now at 8576.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #2 on: November 15, 2022, 09:23:32 PM »


What's left in Maricopa. While the number on the tin is 12K, the real number is likely closer to 3 or 4K between those that aren't going to be counted and the cured ballots not ever getting a high % cured without a targeted campaign like what's going on in CO-03.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #3 on: November 16, 2022, 02:30:38 PM »


Cochise and Pinal came in before hand, which is why the margin has moved a bit.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #4 on: November 16, 2022, 05:07:29 PM »
Quote from: Virginiá on November 16, 2022, 04:16:53 PM
Quote from: wbrocks67 on November 16, 2022, 03:58:47 PM
Looks like all the red counties (Pinal, Cochise, etc.) are basically exhausted. Apache, Pima, and Maricopa seem to be the bulk of what's left. Mayes should be fine, but I assume it will still end up <0.5%. Is it an automatic recount?

Indeed, yes.

Both this and the State Superintendent race are all but guaranteed for recounts. Not recounts in the state senate, but does anyone know how that 0.5% threshold works in the "vote for two" seats in the State House? Cause there's a few who could do it depending how the law is applied.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #5 on: November 16, 2022, 07:16:04 PM »
« Edited: November 16, 2022, 07:42:06 PM by Oryxslayer »




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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #6 on: November 16, 2022, 10:38:19 PM »
Quote from: ProgressiveModerate on November 16, 2022, 10:28:06 PM
It appears Democrats have won Biden + 1 state Senate district 4 which is quite impressive and also unexpected. This is a suburban seat that basically takes in parts of Scottsdale and North Pheonix suburbs that have been shifting left. In 2018 it voted for Ducey by almost 20 points, and many expected the district to experience severe downballot lag.

Dems lost the State Senate by losing SD-04, a Biden + 3 district mainly nested in the city of Gilbert to the West of Pheonix and south of Mesa. Again though, Dems put up a respectable fight considering.

I think Dems really should take AZ-Leg seriously in 2024. Winning all the Biden won seats (15) should be very doable because all the narrow ones have are suburban in nature and been having absolutely brutal shifts for the GOP.

You mean SD-13 in Gilbert. Don't forget district 17 in east and north Tucson suburbs - thats where the State House was lost and the senate is close as well. Also Sd-02 in north Phoenix. Oh and district 16, where the Dems got a surprise State House seat.

Basically, the commissions desire to draw a competitive, recognizable, and fair map was successful.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #7 on: November 16, 2022, 11:14:36 PM »
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #8 on: November 17, 2022, 11:28:50 AM »


Recount is guaranteed, but the gap is unlikely to change.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #9 on: November 17, 2022, 03:35:54 PM »


Most of the small remainder is Maricopa and Blue counties.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #10 on: November 17, 2022, 09:16:21 PM »


At least 4,570 of Maricopa's are not going to be counted according to their own tabulation.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #11 on: November 28, 2022, 04:02:53 PM »
« Edited: November 28, 2022, 05:38:50 PM by Oryxslayer »
BTW Cochise is gonna miss the legal deadline for certification of results. The GOP activists pushing this don't understand that if they get their case in the red counties, but the blue counties still do their thing, then Dems legally win even more, do they?
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #12 on: October 10, 2023, 01:48:26 PM »


The craziest people just don't understand the electorate doesn't want them. Losing again and again has its own value after all.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #13 on: January 31, 2024, 05:54:05 PM »
Quote from: Atlas Force on January 31, 2024, 05:49:54 PM


He actually liked a tweet of mine congratulating him:


There was a lot of churn today in the State House:
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