Beet
Atlas Star
Posts: 28,975
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« on: January 26, 2011, 05:25:12 PM » |
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If this wave of protest/revolution doesn't go well, it can't be blamed on foreign intervention or imperialism. There has been no uptick in Western intervention in North Africa of late. These events are entirely domestically driven.
The problem is not a Islamic-oriented, democratic government, or a government led by the Muslim brotherhood, per se. The worry is more obvious by looking at examples of Hezbollah, Iran, and Pakistan. Pakistan, is a US ally and is not categorized as having an Islamist government, yet it operates in many ways under Islamic law, and assassins are hailed as heroes while others are too afraid to speak or march. The rule of law is very shaky and the democracy is very corrupt and not very long lasting. Iran, was born in a revolution very similar to what is happening now. The Shah's regime was very oppressive and overthrown by a popular coalition that included all sides of the political spectrum. But today Iran is a very oppressive regime and extremely polarized society. Finally, Hezbollah, a heavily armed and occasionally violent political party, which outsiders obviously have reason to be wary of.
Hence, big problems can occur by any angle. In Algeria, the civil war of the 1990s was very devastating, so that is another example. That that country has relative peace today was hard won.
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