FL-Cherry Communications: Scott +3?

[Gass3268]

Pretty clear this is a toss up, still think the national environment will help Nelson, but he needs to get his head out of his ass.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Nelson is clearly becoming more senile by the day, if he wins it will be solely because of the national environment

Can you please stop discriminating against old people by saying Nelson is "senile"? I know you're probably 12, but this is incredibly disrespectful towards the elders who paid for your education and took care of you when you were a crying baby whose only function was to poop his pants. This is the kind of sh!t democrats say and is why they lose old voters...

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

10.3 million in TV ads makes this possible

Jeb Bush spent $150 million to come 7th in Iowa

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Nelson is clearly becoming more senile by the day, if he wins it will be solely because of the national environment

If he were in fact becoming senile, that would help him. He is running in Florida, after all, which is chock full of senile voters.

[Arkansas Yankee]

Something odd about the article.

The first paragraph say Scott leads by 3%.

The second paragraph says Scott leads 48% to 43%.  That is a 5% lead!

As far as I can tell the discrepancy is not explained.

[Arkansas Yankee]

Like this result or not, but Scott is, by any account, running a smart campaign.

lol...who wins an election is basically 95% national environment (barring some giant scandal). nobody in Florida cares about Rick Scott's ''smart campaign.'' Had Hillary won in 2016, Scott would of won without running a single ad or hosting a single campaign event

Jason Kander outperformed Hillary by 15 points, and it had nothing to do with the "national environment". Roy Blunt was not inundated with scandals, as well.

who cares...he still lost. I will grant you that Scott will come closer than anyone before him in defeating Nelson but what does it matter in the end when he still loses.

As you know, elections are not binary "win/lose" contests. People vote for candidates and each one receives a certain percentage of the vote. And although whether a candidate gets 51% or 70% they win, that difference is extremely important as it provides the basis for basically all political modeling, analysis, and punditry. Jason Kander shows he can outperform the democratic presidential candidate by 15 points in a horrid national environment for Democrats, even if he lost. Rick Scott, running in a much more evenly divided swing state, can similarly outperform what is likely to be a bad national environment for Republicans and beat the incumbent. It's logically incoherent to say "this candidate still lost while outperforming therefore any outperformance isn't enough to win".

Kander came close to winning because he looked better than Roy Blunt....not because he had better ideas or policy positions. Sure...a good candidate on paper will come closer than a totally terrible candidate but they still lose under an unfavorable nation environment. Look at Feingfold choking in WI in 2016 for proof.

Like this result or not, but Scott is, by any account, running a smart campaign.

lol...who wins an election is basically 95% national environment (barring some giant scandal). nobody in Florida cares about Rick Scott's ''smart campaign.'' Had Hillary won in 2016, Scott would of won without running a single ad or hosting a single campaign event

Clearly they do care if he's doing this well, you hack.

Scott isn't doing well at all when the poll is using 2014 demographics (the lowest turnout in midterm history since the 1940s) yet still within the margin of error.

No way I'm a hack here because I readily admit that Nelson would be BTFO under a Hillary presidency

There as no cross tabs.  The article does not set out the demographics of the sample. The article only says 1/2 the voters will vote. That would mean more voters than in 2014.  The article fails to provide the partisan break down of the voters.

[OneJ]

Man, some of you are going to be heartbroken this November when Nelson wins by at least 3 points. He’s a popular incumbent facing a popular challenger in an environment that favors him immediately and on top of this has guap in the bank. Simple as that.

[Adam Griffin]

Breaking news: two-time plurality Governor in statistical dead heat for an election held 4 years ago

[Adam Griffin]

Nelson is clearly becoming more senile by the day, if he wins it will be solely because of the national environment

https://twitter.com/clearwaterfire/status/997888786985095174

[Politician]

Nelson is clearly becoming more senile by the day, if he wins it will be solely because of the national environment

https://twitter.com/clearwaterfire/status/997888786985095174

[Ashley Biden's Diary]

FL is a hive of villainy.

[Person Man]

This was basically a Scott internal but it could still be valuable. However, it will be interesting to see how the current situation has unfolded that his Government let crooks and crazies have hidden shanks and pistols. I am a gun control skeptic, but I definitely believe that there are people who should have a hard of a time as possible becoming armed. Maybe that puts me to the left of the issue. I don't know but I am pretty sure it doesn't because the alternative is that NO laws are made regarding firearms safety. On the other hand, maybe people will just want to vote Scott because he is upper class and Nelson is middle-class and therefore believe that since Scott is more successful, he will be a better senator. The same way Trump became president over Clinton. People are more and more accustomed to not getting to where they like to in life so the next best thing is that they associate themselves that do. Most people would probably trade getting a raise or seeing a significant bump in sales for being able to shake a Billionaire's hand or have a beer with a Millionaire. This sort of submission is sold as "being altruistic" or "standing up for the common good instead of my own special wants and selfish interests".

[windjammer]

This is not a race I'm worried about. Nelson will win in the end.

[Xing]

Unlike a challengers who are lesser-known, Scott doesn’t have as much room for growth, since he’s already very well-known in the state. I still expect his numbers to drop a bit over the summer, but Nelson is clearly the most vulnerable Obama state Democrat.

[Doimper]

Unlike a challengers who are lesser-known, Scott doesn’t have as much room for growth, since he’s already very well-known in the state. I still expect his numbers to drop a bit over the summer, but Nelson is clearly the most vulnerable Obama state Democrat.

Donnelly?

[Xing]

Unlike a challengers who are lesser-known, Scott doesn’t have as much room for growth, since he’s already very well-known in the state. I still expect his numbers to drop a bit over the summer, but Nelson is clearly the most vulnerable Obama state Democrat.

Donnelly?

I meant Obama 2012 states.

[Progressive Pessimist]

FL is a hive of villainy.

It's the United States' Mos Eisley.

[President Johnson]

Like this result or not, but Scott is, by any account, running a smart campaign.

lol...who wins an election is basically 95% national environment (barring some giant scandal). nobody in Florida cares about Rick Scott's ''smart campaign.'' Had Hillary won in 2016, Scott would of won without running a single ad or hosting a single campaign event

Jason Kander outperformed Hillary by 15 points, and it had nothing to do with the "national environment". Roy Blunt was not inundated with scandals, as well.

who cares...he still lost. I will grant you that Scott will come closer than anyone before him in defeating Nelson but what does it matter in the end when he still loses.

As you know, elections are not binary "win/lose" contests. People vote for candidates and each one receives a certain percentage of the vote. And although whether a candidate gets 51% or 70% doesn't effect if they win, that difference is extremely important as it provides the basis for basically all political modeling, analysis, and punditry. Jason Kander shows he can outperform the democratic presidential candidate by 15 points in a horrid national environment for Democrats, even if he lost. Rick Scott, running in a much more evenly divided swing state, can similarly outperform what is likely to be a bad national environment for Republicans and beat the incumbent. It's logically incoherent to say "this candidate still lost while outperforming therefore any outperformance isn't enough to win".

Agree with Limo's latest post. Just look at Reagan 1976, Jeb 1994 or Bobby Jindal 2003, just to name a few.

[Landslide Lyndon]

So Scott will win if turnout is like 2014. Can't argue with that.

[IceSpear]

So Scott will win if turnout is like 2014. Can't argue with that.

[Arkansas Yankee]

So Scott will win if turnout is like 2014. Can't argue with that.

It did not say the electorate would be the same.

It said 1/2 the electorate turned out in 2014.  It said 1/2 would turn out in 2018.  It is my assumption that turnout will be greater.  Have not large numbers of Puerto Rican’s probably registered.  In 4 years new voters turning 18 will have been added.  Old white guys in my age group will have died. The 1/2 will be different.  The article has no crosstabs.  So we do not now in what ways the pollster determined it would be different.  All it said was 1/2 would vote.

[KingSweden]

So Scott will win if turnout is like 2014. Can't argue with that.

It did not say the electorate would be the same.

It said 1/2 the electorate turned out in 2014.  It said 1/2 would turn out in 2018.  It is my assumption that turnout will be greater.  Have not large numbers of Puerto Rican’s probably registered.  In 4 years new voters turning 18 will have been added.  Old white guys in my age group will have died. The 1/2 will be different.  The article has no crosstabs.  So we do not now in what ways the pollster determined it would be different.  All it said was 1/2 would vote.

I’d actually be curious to know what assumptions pollsters (and not just this one) are makin about Florida since there’s so much turnover

[sg0508]

If I'm not mistaken, Mack IV was up double digits on Nelson this time of year six years back, and lost by 12-13 points.

If the Democrats blow this one to a crook (and everybody living here know about Scott), then the FL Democratic Party really is as good as dead.

[MT Treasurer]

If I'm not mistaken, Mack IV was up double digits on Nelson this time of year six years back, and lost by 12-13 points.

This is verifiably false.

[Bidenworth2020]

looks like valadao the popular incumbent has been helping others out