CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

Ha. He'll be having a good night if he cracks 40%

Considering his popularity in San Diego, the fact he's from SoCal, and that it'll be a republican wave in 2022, I imagine he'll crack 40%

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

That’s odd. One would think he’d wait for 2026, when there wouldn’t be an incumbent.

That's 6 years out of office, and Newsom isn't particularly popular.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

Honestly, there is maybe a path for Faulconer to get within single digits of winning.

No.

Now now, Newsom could strangle a prostitute, putting the race at tilt lean D

Let's not get too ahead of ourselves here

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

I wouldn't be opposed to voting against Newsom as long as I was assured that Democrats would retain their supermajorities in the legislature (which is likely). I'll probably vote for Newsom in the end, but for state races I am, at least, persuadable.

I don't think that there are enough seats where republicans are even going to get a nominee in the top two to flip those supermajorities.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

https://www.politico.com/states/california/story/2020/11/19/gops-faulconer-seriously-considering-a-run-against-newsom-1337251
Looking like this'll be real

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

Absolutely. He is a strong contender especially if Newsom gets recalled.

That's the dream, but regardless, we gotta recall Newsom his stupidity, anyone else is better

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1347756218056466432?s=21
My guess is that this is either for 2026, or a hamfisted shot at torpedoing his nomination for AG. Who knows?

Oh baby yes, split Dem vote, let a republican make it in to the runoff.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

Seems as though we have the first poll for Newsom vs Faulocner.
Survey USA poll says in San Diego county, 38% Faulconer, 36% Newsom, rest undecided, Faulconer draws 20% of Democrats while Newsom gets 12% of Republicans.
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=229207e8-4908-4ea4-b0b8-a18e36b2d338&c=37

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

Seems as though we have the first poll for Newsom vs Faulocner.
Survey USA poll says in San Diego county, 38% Faulconer, 36% Newsom, rest undecided, Faulconer draws 20% of Democrats while Newsom gets 12% of Republicans.
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=229207e8-4908-4ea4-b0b8-a18e36b2d338&c=37

Impressive that Faulconers getting 20% of democrats but still being unable to break 40% in a county that your a two-term mayor of the largest city in doesn't really bode well in a state as democratic as California...

Eh, 26% still aren't decided, but yeah, not great

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

Not sure if this has been brought up, but it's possibly worth noting. The California State Senate Republican caucus replaced their staunchly pro-Trump minority leader Shannon Grove with the more moderate Scott Wilk.

https://www.politico.com/states/california/story/2021/01/20/trump-backing-california-legislator-ousted-as-gop-caucus-leader-1357484

This loser literally supports Affirmative Action. What a joke.

If I remember as well, his seat was like 60%+ against the ballot prop

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2021-01-23/recall-newsom-effort-qanon-antivaxxer-extremist-ties

LA Times: Recall Newsom effort has ties to far-right movements, including QAnon and virus skeptics

As the pandemic continues to shutter businesses, close schools and upend lives in California, Gov. Gavin Newsom has become a target of angry frustration for some, driving a grassroots effort to recall him from office. What once started as a pipe dream is beginning to look like a political threat for the Democratic governor.

But a Times investigation found that recall campaign leaders, seeking to capitalize on the darkening public mood, allied with radical and extreme elements early on to help collect signatures. Those included groups promoting distrust of government, science and medicine; peddlers of QAnon doomsday conspiracies; “patriots” readying for battle and one organization allied with the far-right extremist group, the Proud Boys.

The recall gave those fringe factions a higher profile and a shared villain. They helped energize the campaign with large and often inflammatory rallies over masks, in support of Trump and against the election they falsely say was stolen from the former president — ripe venues to harvest petition signatures.

Many supporters of the recall are not extremists and may not be aware of the far-right groups involved with the effort. But with the violent insurgency at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, organizers are grappling with the consequences of their alliances. They now insist the extremists don’t represent the values of the recall movement but continue to associate with them, amid a national debate about how far is too far when it comes to winning in politics.

“Do we have to denounce everybody that is involved to move it forward?” the official proponent of the recall drive, a retired sheriff’s sergeant from Yolo County named Orrin Heatlie, asked The Times. “Or do we just move forward and ignore those other elements?”[...]

We shouldn't be surprised However, this was the quote I wanted to focus on:

[Randy] Economy said more than 1.2 million Californians have signed the petition to remove Newsom. As of Jan. 6, state elections officials said 723,783 signatures have been turned in by the recall campaign and of those, 485,650 have been verified.

According to Ballotpedia & the CA Secretary of State websites, the petition drive started on June 10.

So here's what we've got in the last 7 months. The last update was January 6:

Valid signatures needed for recall: 1,495,709
Signatures self-reported by the petitioners: 1,200,000+
Signatures officially turned in: 723,783
Verified signatures: 485,650
Valid signatures: 410,087
Valid/Verified signature rate: 84.4%

Signatures turned in per month: 103,398
Verified signatures per month: 69,379
Valid signatures per month: 58,583

They have a month and a half left on the deadline (March 17). I'll make another update the next time the CA Secretary of State does one, but something tells me there won't be a recall question anytime soon.

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1353170946236944386?s=19

Seems like the SOS numbers aren't actually relevant. This doesn't change you're likely right though.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

I guess I'm a skeptic in that I don't think there'll be a recall question. They've got quite a bit of ground to make up signature-wise in the next 40-50 days. They're gonna need a bit more than 1.5 million for cushion.

I understand why you would think this. As the cash flows in and the pool the circulators gather signatures from gets bigger, validity rates will probably go down somewhat. But this is going to be very close, and people on both sides are acting like it will be close

Man I hope you're right. Imagine us getting anyone else but Gavin. I just don't see us getting to the 2 million that's likely needed for success.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

I'm raising awareness. Tom Steyer and Joe Sanberg are being boring and not backing the quixotic recall effort so some other billionaire pretending to be a progressive needs to step in.

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1354859039985811457
Considering the 84.4% rate at which signatures are verified, this would give recall 1.1 million sigs, with rates of collection ramping up, and a whole month and half left over, it's looking like there might actually be good odds for this making it onto the ballot. This of course says nothing about Newsom actually losing the recall vote.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

History would say that the LG is the odds-on favored Dem candidate if the recall makes the ballot. The issue is that Gavin has been too much of a spotlight hog to let Kounalakis do anything, so she doesn’t have much of a statewide profile. So, I’m not really sure what would happen.

Would Kounalakis even run in the recall? Seems to me that high-profile Dems (even her) would probably be more incentivized to just line-up behind Newsom & not run so as to undermine the recall's legitimacy.

Aha! You've found the exact same logic used in 2003! That is, until the power hungry players of the bloodsport that is California poltics decided they had a chance, and No on Recall, Yes on Bustamante became a thing.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

Faulconer breaks $1mil raised as the recall goes over 1.3 million signatures. LA Times has a story about Democrats sensing which way things are going & getting out in front by seeking to DISAVOW.

Michael Trujillo, a Democratic strategist who has helped run campaigns for former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, said it’s accurate for the governor to brand the recall backers as highly partisan, or some as extremists. But he said that message is undercut when the left is voicing criticism too.

“I think a lot of rank-and-file Democrats see Gavin Newsom as a combination of Charlie Brown and Lucy, where he wants to kick the football but he pulls it out himself before he can do it,” Trujillo said.

This is it, I think. Gavin has undercut himself a lot over the past two years:
 - Signed AB5 so he didn’t piss off unions, and then stood by while it got gutted so he didn’t piss off the tech companies
 - Somehow managed to make restrictions both unjustifiably strict for some people at some times, which made business owners mad, and unjustifiably lenient for other people at others, which made the left mad
 - Has a pisspoor relationship with the legislature, hasn’t tried to seriously engage with them on any significant non-budgetary stuff, and seems chronically incapable of fixing this no matter how many staffing overhauls he tries

This is the problem with being chronically risk-averse because you want to run for President. If you never stick your neck out for anyone, nobody will stick their neck out for you. That’s what’s happening here.

His motto when running for Governor was “Courage for a Change.” The last time he did something courageous was allowing gay marriage when he was mayor of SF.

I mean, I’d still vote for him and against a recall, but I wouldn’t support him in a primary for President.

I mean, how brave is that in a city where 16% of the population is gay?

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

I knew Newsom would suck in office but this is something else. I feel vindicated!

What exactly is the problem with Newsom? I think California's problem is mainly too high cost of living and the homelessness crisis. His pandemic management could be better from what I read, but there are worse governors on this. I feel like Jerry Brown was by far the best governor in America in recent years.

Yeah Jerry was great. Gavin is no Jerry.

-snip-

A better statement never has been said.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

PPIC
January 21-31 (Last poll: November 4-23)
1,703 California residents (English & Spanish)

Newsom Job Approval

All Adults
Approve:  54%  (-4)
Disapprove:  36%  (-4)
N/A:  10%  (+9)

Likely Voters
Approve:  52%  (-7)
Disapprove:  43%  (+3)
N/A:  5%  (+4)

Basically, his approvals have fallen back down to his pre-COVID levels. PPIC's survey in early January 2020 had him 51-34 among all adults & 49-42 among likely voters.


https://www.ppic.org/wp-content/uploads/ppic-statewide-survey-californians-and-their-government-january-2021.pdf

In the Berkeley poll aren't his  approvals below pre covid levels? Also, I'd rather trust the poll with 10 times the number of takers, that was still conducted over the same period.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

In other news
 https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/03/chamath-paliyhapita-says-hes-not-running-for-california-governor.html

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

I'm frankly ambivalent on the recall. I don't like Gavin, which should be obvious if you've read anything else I've said in this thread. Blairite said it pretty well: we need someone who's going to at least take a potshot at solving CA's problems. I think we would have decent odds of replacing him with a better Democrat in a recall.

OTOH I'm worried that for better or worse, Dem fortunes are tied to him at this point, and spending months litigating all his issues is gonna hurt. Even if he wins, the difference between a D+25 and a D+15 environment heading into 2022 is potentially massive for legislative races.

You've got amazing odds. Even in the sub 5% chance of a non dem victory, 2022 rolls around in less than a year

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

Feels like the last month has just been prolonged anticipation until the inevitable recall ends up inevitably happening.

Mhm. Only question is when the election will happen.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

Feels like the last month has just been prolonged anticipation until the inevitable recall ends up inevitably happening.

Mhm. Only question is when the election will happen.

And how much Newsom wins by

Oh yes. although I'd say, regardless of the recent scare about if the recall would make it, his survival is less likely than recall getting on the ballot.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

Feels like the last month has just been prolonged anticipation until the inevitable recall ends up inevitably happening.

Mhm. Only question is when the election will happen.

And how much Newsom wins by

Oh yes. although I'd say, regardless of the recent scare about if the recall would make it, his survival is less likely than recall getting on the ballot.

Yea, but unless there’s some crazy splintering I doubt a republican wins. I can’t see the Democratic Party bucking him right now. Especially when Newsom has appointed like four of statewide officials. He’s pretty much consolidated his position

Considering the triaging so far of Question 2, it might not require much, if any, major splintering.  Dems, being smart, are focusing all on 1, but if they fail there, I think a republican is the odds on favorite.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

https://www.kron4.com/news/california/exclusive-poll-californians-split-on-newsom-as-recall-looms/

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

Sadly, the party has coalesced around him. He has literally sucked for 15 years and just climbed. It's so damn annoying. He's utterly corrupt and incompetent. He has literally accomplished nothing--he does not have a single significant legislative accomplishment despite no actual opposition. It's a damn shame this recall effort was so partisan and GOP-led. There's so much material to push moderates and progressives against Newsom, but they're (rightfully) against anything with a whiff of the Republican party on it.

Oh well. Recall Newsom. Impeach Cuomo. Elect new Democrats.

Who do you see as potentially successful governor of California? I agree that Newsom's tenure is underwhelming, though I oppose the recall (like most recalls, just go through regular elections). London Breed? Eleni Kounalakis? John Chiang? Adam Schiff?

Schiff, Lieu, Becerra, and Breedliterally anyone else are the obvious ones imo. Maybe Porter. I still think Villaraigosa would have been great but he's DOA.

The thing is, I oppose almost all recalls. I don't like the process at all. But if they're the law of the land, then they are to be used in two situations: 1) dereliction of duty or 2) corruption. In my view, Gavin meets both criteria. He hit the first when California surged in cases in November and thousands of excess deaths occurred here over the nation as a whole. That localized surge never had to happen and the fact that it did speaks to a failure on the part of statewide leadership. Those excess deaths are the fault of Gavin Newsom, personally. The second occurred when he violated his own Covid restrictions--which is self explanatory.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

So now that Becerra’s confirmed, it’s time for Gavin to pick his replacement. Some names that have been floating around:
- Rep. Adam Schiff
- State Assemblyman Rob Bonta
 - Sacramento Mayor Darrell Steinberg
 - State Sen. Anna Caballero

I'd say give the guy his career capping for the out honestly.