CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

Since I'm backing Elder, may as well kinda shill for him too. Here's some polling data from emmerson released yesterday.

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1418020006445600771

https://www.kron4.com/news/politics/inside-california-politics/larry-elder-leads-race-to-replace-newsom-in-recall-election-new-poll-reveals/

Larry at good ol 16%. Recall had 43% support to 48% oppose, 9% undecided.
Such an unsurmountable lead /s

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

So who are partisan Democrats going to back on the 2nd question?

Seems like a poor idea to not have some sort of stalking horse.

think they'll pick whoever has the best title on the ballot

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

Larry Elder claims the ideal minimum wage is....nothing.

California workers currently earn a minimum of $13 or $14 an hour, but Larry Elder says he’d get rid of a legal baseline altogether.

“For somebody who’s never run a business to tell business people... ‘I’m going to jack up your price of labor, and you’re going to deal with it,’ to me, it’s offensive,” said Elder, a longtime conservative talk radio host and leading candidate to replace Gov. Gavin Newsom in the recall election this fall.

“The ideal minimum wage is $0.00,” he added.

PSA: Vote Faulconer on question two.

Just in case.

PSA: Vote Faulconer to prevent memes like Larry happening. If you want good government, vote Faulconer, if you want memes, vote Larry

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

D's have a Supermajority in the State Legislature what can an R Gov do

I think the Democrats controlled the California state legislature since the late 1950s, so Governor Larry Elder probably won’t get much done legislative wise, though he will definitely invoke the Dual Elector scenario in 2024, as I have him getting narrowly re-elected in 2022 due to the Republican wave in that years midterm election.

Oh I can dream.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

I voted for Elder

Good man.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

Of course I voted against the Recall models predict a 291/304 map and a 51 or 52 S and 220 H either way, VA, NJ, Cali, PA, GA, WI, AZ and NV we are tied or leading in Govs and Senate

but of course? What else could be expected?

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

Of course I voted against the Recall models predict a 291/304 map and a 51 or 52 S and 220 H either way, VA, NJ, Cali, PA, GA, WI, AZ and NV we are tied or leading in Govs and Senate

but of course? What else could be expected?

Death, it’s inevitable

that, and I suppose taxes.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

Got my sample ballot in the mail. I appreciate how one of my former state senators/current BoE member, one of my former congressmen, and my current assemblyman are all running (and I haven’t changed addresses in the time that any of them served me.

I’m extremely tempted to just write my own name in there. If it wasn’t for my employer, I should’ve ran a “Vote No on the Recall, Vote for me and I’ll resign and let Kounalakis take over” ticket.

lmfao, amazing, Gaines, Ose, and Kiley. Three irrelevant people running.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

Newsom's approval is barely above water and people can't stand his policies. CA is one of the highest taxed states in the nation, and obviously as we know, nobody likes taxes. Hispanics approve of the recall too and many are disappointed with Newsom's lax measures on immigration. He fails to enforce the laws. As of today, I do think Newsom would be narrowly recalled.



Yes - 53%
No - 46%

This map looks like a repeat of the 2003 gubernatorial recall map, and it seems to be a very plausible one.

On no planet will SLO vote against recall while Imperial votes for it.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

This map looks like a repeat of the 2003 gubernatorial recall map, and it seems to be a very plausible one.

Here's the 2003 Recall map.

I posted this map myself earlier on this thread, and as I said, there is a resemblance. The point about San Luis Obispo County is well made, however, and correct.

On the note of maps, this is what I got when you take Berkeley's poll data, and give Gavin all the undecideds, making the results 47-53 in favor of no. This honestly is what I think the most likely results are, as well.


 

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

This map looks like a repeat of the 2003 gubernatorial recall map, and it seems to be a very plausible one.

Here's the 2003 Recall map.

I posted this map myself earlier on this thread, and as I said, there is a resemblance. The point about San Luis Obispo County is well made, however, and correct.

On the note of maps, this is what I got when you take Berkeley's poll data, and give Gavin all the undecideds, making the results 47-53 in favor of no. This honestly is what I think the most likely results are, as well.


 

I think Santa Barbara County will be the bellwether as it closely follows the statewide margin in most elections.

That's exactly what Blairite and I agreed on, and SB on this map is 5 points for NO as I recall.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

The 2018 Insurance Commissioner race is a good map to look at to when trying to predict benchmarks. 2003 was a long time ago and I think it's bit extreme to think the recall is going win 70%+ in Southern California and only narrowly fail in Los Angeles County like back then.

The issue with that map is his drastic underperformance in SoCal, like only winning San Diego by a point, and getting 30% in SF, which thats not possible. I did base the rurals on that with a mix of his and trump's results, due to Berkeley not really polling them.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

The 2018 Insurance Commissioner race is a good map to look at to when trying to predict benchmarks. 2003 was a long time ago and I think it's bit extreme to think the recall is going win 70%+ in Southern California and only narrowly fail in Los Angeles County like back then.

Poinzner's performance in the Bay Area was really strong though. My guess is that the Yes option won't fare as well there but it might do better in SoCal (if it ends up being close, obviously). But agree that 2003 numbers in SoCal don't look like they are possible in the post-Trump era.

Berkeley shows it getting 60% in Orange, San Bernardino and Riverside, but just 31% in the bay.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

Lets say Newsom gets recalled, what could a Republican Governor do with a Democratic state legislature with veto-proof super majorities?

Cut ribbons & not much else.

Appoint a couple offices, which was actually the focus of the speech that Larry gave to the Orange County GOP on Monday night.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

If Larry Elder becomes the next California governor, wouldn't he necessarily lose in 2022 as and be a lightning rod that could endanger suburban Republicans?

Nah, every other Californian will win, or more likely, lose, on their own, Larry won't matter.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

Lets say Newsom gets recalled, what could a Republican Governor do with a Democratic state legislature with veto-proof super majorities?

Competently or incompetently manage the executive branch, respond to emergencies, oversee FEMA and the national guard through fire season, etc.

Which is why it's actually so important that Faulconer beats Elder or Paffrath on question two. The mechanisms of state government could absolutely melt down with someone that stupid at the top.

Noooooo, we stan Larry in this house.
But Democrats, unless you want people like me getting sudden control of the executive branch, y'all need to vote Faulconer. Moderate, sensible, and successful, he's honestly the right choice to be governor.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

Lets say Newsom gets recalled, what could a Republican Governor do with a Democratic state legislature with veto-proof super majorities?

Cut ribbons & not much else.

Appoint a couple offices, which was actually the focus of the speech that Larry gave to the Orange County GOP on Monday night.

Could the legislature overrule a governor and impose a mask mandate?

Oh I have truly no idea, that'd go to the courts I imagine, and considering the recent results, I imagine the legislature would lose.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

My ballot showed up in the mail today, which was the first reminder in several months that a recall is even happening.

Here are my favorite non-Angelyne candidates in the Voter Information Guide For Confused & Very Concerned Californians:




Might as well install an actual Tankie to run Commiefornia.  I'll bet his managers at Walmart are very interested in his extracurricular activities.  They probably put up a sign in the break room saying "Don't talk to Dennis, and tell us if he tries talking to you about ANYTHING".




"I used to be addicted to drugs, but then I stopped!  I had a great job, but drugs.  Here is my education history as well: I earned a PhD in DRUGS."




And then everyone stood up and clapped.



And now the "A for Effort" gang:

Very strange that you got candidate statements, the LA county voter guide only had statements from newsom.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

As a viable progressive choice, Dan Kapelowitz and Dennis Richter seem like good choices for California.

Nah, the only viable choice for good governance, which is what matters, is Kevin Faulconer, loath as I am to say that considering his recent salt over trailing Larry Elder.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

As a viable progressive choice, Dan Kapelowitz and Dennis Richter seem like good choices for California.

Nah, the only viable choice for good governance, which is what matters, is Kevin Faulconer, loath as I am to say that considering his recent salt over trailing Larry Elder.

Arnold Schwarzenegger as a moderate Republican failed to do any governing. Given that both candidates mentioned have adequate executive experience and are not as gross as a suburban R, it’s clear what the sane choices are.

Ah yes, because working at a Walmart and being a defense attorney are adequate executive experience to run California.Please, if you want to put inexperienced buffoons like those two in charge than you can't talk about Arnold, at least he was in charge of the council on fitness. Now running the second largest city in the state successfully, that's some actual experience. 

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

https://twitter.com/abc7JoshHaskell/status/1429910223976730626?s=19
Hurray! Amazing!

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

This is a truly incredible level of lack of self awareness.

https://twitter.com/jeanguerre/status/1429585527259369478?s=19
Also look at how she initially got ratioed and then restricted replies like a coward.

This has got to be a parody, right?

And then she doubled down (and strawmanned, almost no one in the replies was right-wing.)

https://twitter.com/jeanguerre/status/1429647621295992834?s=19

Truly, an utterly idiotic woman.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

HEELED LIKE A DOG

https://twitter.com/jeanguerre/status/1430966462303272960

THATS WHAT WE LIKE

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

I’m seeing some Twitter chatter that non citizens and people living out of state are being mailed ballots

That is unacceptable even if rare

I mean come the hell on. How hard is it to control mail flow?

These usps workers have one job that isnt rocket science. I expect them to do it mistake free

On this note, my mother has received, once again, two ballots.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

This is how I'd vote:

Numero Uno: NO.
Numero Dos: RO KHANNA, representative for CA17

Super depressing, bloody hell.