Canadian by-elections 2021-2022

[Oryxslayer]

With only a handful of polls outstanding (plus the advance polls), things have barely shifted at all. Easy win for Brian Jean. The NDP candidate underperformed by a decent amount though - I had been expecting the NDP to get at least 25% but right now they're not even at 17%.

Probably a combination of two things:

1) Concentration of the swing to the NDP from the UCP in the urban metro seats. When election comes this probably means a easy seat majority with comparatively large vote majorities, but now it means far more limited vote gains in the outlying and extraction areas.

2) Jean running as a open opponent of Kenney so the Conservative's angry with the current direction of the UCP saw no problem with continuing to park their vote with the party.

[Oryxslayer]

So the extent to which it is a harbinger of good fortune for the Liberals is pretty limited?

More a Harbinger of problems for the Manitoba PC's, which shouldn't be surprising given Stephanson is just as or even more unpopular than Kenney according to polls.

[Oryxslayer]

I'm ready for the 100-seat CAQ majority that will be won with about 40% of the vote.

[Oryxslayer]

Is this the right place to say that Kenney has resigned after barely winning an internal UCP vote?

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/MainStResearch/status/1602714323771613189?s=20&t=-1fbCEz...

If the Tories really want to try their hands at spin, they should start with this type of data. That approval I think is worse than his national number, which itself isn't that good except when compared against Trudeau. Then they say that PP's Conservative Party doesn't see these types of seats as a path to forming (minority, cause I really struggle to see them get anywhere without Legault coercing the Bloc) government. Instead their focus is on small-towns or traditional marginals in the West far from the Laurentian bubble.

Now is this a correct strategy or spin? That's more up for debate.