This has no implications on the election. He'll get a small bump that will last for a couple months, kind of like the Gifford thing, and then he'll be back to where he is now.
OBL is irrelevant. This is an inconsequential, although symbolic, victory. In 2004, OBL was seen as relevant, and if this happened then Bush would have won by a much bigger margin. But that was a much different time.
If people don't have jobs, paying $5 for gas, still sceptical about the rammed health care bill, concerned about the defecit, etc....people won't give a damn about this. I'd rather have a job and have OBL alive irrelevantly living in a mansion in Pakistan, than having him dead and a bad economy.
It looks good on Obama's resume, but he can't run a campaign simply on "I killed OBL, so vote for me" and expect to win. At the end of the day, the electorate will vote on economic conditions.
There are a couple of things I agree with here and a couple I don't.
I'll start with my agreements. I do think the economy and the deficit worries keep the election very much on the table. As was mentioned, Bush 41's approval ratings were in the stratosphere after the Gulf War, and he lost on a slowly recovering economy to a known philanderer. So, at the end of the day, I think it's likely people will vote on economic issues, so the GOP nominee still will have a very real shot.
My disagreements are these. I don't know if the economic issues spell out a clear win for the GOP. There is ambivalence about both the deficit and the tearing up of entitlements, making it a kind of "lose-lose issue" for both sides barring a long-term compromise deal. Secondly, OBL was not irrelevant either in 2004 or now. Kerry accused Bush of missing OBL at Tora Bora in the immediate aftermath of overthrowing the Taliban, and the circulation of the OBL tape a few days before election day was something Bush himself credited with nudging the electorate in his favor. Secondly, an OBL holed up in a Pakistan mansion with curriers carrying messages in and out is an OBL who is doling out instructions. Does his death spell the end of terrorist threats against the U.S.? Of course not. But he was not operationally irrelevant. And, even on a "symbolic" level, his death means something quite real to the loved ones of 9/11 victims. Killing him was not the ballgame, but it was a damned good catch.
