Hmmm...wonder why Christie did so well in 09. People says he's moderate, but his campaign web site was pro-life this and tax-cut that. That sounds pretty conservative to me. Then again, Kentucky and Arkansas have modestly obedient Democrats for Governors and that though Clinton could count on them in 92 and 96, I cannot foresee how any Presidential Democrat will ever get close to winning them again.
Corzine.
Yeah, and even so he didn't do that well. He won by like 3%.
How often do nonscandaled incumbents lose by much more than 3%? Even in 2006, Ehrlich lost by 6%. Roy Barnes lost by 5% in 2002. Mark Sanford won by 6% in 2002. That's about all I could find for the last decade.