UK local by-elections, 2023

[YL]

Let's see if we can get this started again.

Thursday 5 January

Andrew Teale's previews

Cannock Chase, Etching Hill & The Heath

Lab 422 (52.3%, +17.0 since 2022, +27.9 since 2021)
Con 385 (47.7%, -0.3 since 2022, -20.4 since 2021)

Lab gain from Con

Uttlesford, Great Dunmow South & Barnston

Con 375 (46.0%, +14.1)
Residents for Uttlesford 238 (29.2%, -27.3)
Lab 115 (14.1%, +2.4)
Lib Dem 88 (10.8%, new)
(changes since 2019; this council has whole council elections every four years)

Con gain from Residents for Uttlesford

[YL]

Thursday 12 January

Andrew Teale's previews

Plymouth, Moor View

Lab 1415 (53.2%, +23.9 since 2021, +16.7 since 2022)
Con 877 (33.0%, -30.5 since 2021, -21.0 since 2022)
Ind Marshall 184 (6.9%, new)
Green 87 (3.3%, -1.1 since 2021, -0.7 since 2022)
Lib Dem 77 (2.9%, +0.6 since 2021, -1.5 since 2022)
TUSC 18 (0.7%, +0.2 since 2021, -0.4 since 2022)

Lab gain from Con

Plymouth, Plympton Chaddlewood

Green 653 (44.9%, +1.6 since 2021, -12.8 since 2022)
Con 425 (29.2%, -18.4 since 2021, -5.7 since 2022)
Ind Hill 182 (12.5%, new)
Lab 147 (10.1%, +0.9 since 2021, +2.7 since 2022)
Lib Dem 33 (2.3%, new)
TUSC 15 (1.0%, new)

Green gain from Con

NB I've used the changes from Britain Elects on Twitter here.  These use the last time these specific seats, as opposed to the wards, were contested, in 2021, as a baseline.  The changes look less dramatic if 2022 is used as a baseline, though even then the Moor View swing is large.  EDIT: now added the 2022 changes.

[YL]

I've added the changes since 2022 to the Plymouth results, and those since 2021 for the Cannock Chase ward the week before.

[YL]

Thursday 19 January

Andrew Teale's previews

Staffordshire County Council, Biddulph North

Lab 931 (49.5%, +13.8 )
Ind Hart 493 (26.2%, new)
Con 458 (24.3%, -33.3)
(changes from 2021)

Lab gain from Con

Staffordshire Moorlands, Biddulph West (double vacancy)

Lab 364 (36.8%, +11.5)
Lab 288
Ind Eardley 226 (22.8%, new)
Con 185 (18.7%, -3.7)
Ind McLaughlin 154 (15.6%, new)
Green 61 (6.2%, new)
(changes from 2019 using "top vote" for both; NB there are various ways of calculating percentages here and none are wholly satisfactory)

1 Lab gain fron Ind, 1 Lab gain from Con

Stevenage, Bedwell

Lab 907 (69.8%; +13.0 on 2022, +15.6 on 2021, +15.6 on 2019)
Con 263 (20.2%; -7.1 on 2022, -12.8 on 2021, -3.5 on 2019)
Lib Dem 129 (9.9%; -1.6 on 2022, +0.2 on 2021, +2.0 on 2019)

Lab hold

[YL]

Thursday 19 January

Andrew Teale's previews

Staffordshire County Council, Biddulph North

Lab 931 (49.5%, +13.8 )
Ind Hart 493 (26.2%, new)
Con 458 (24.3%, -33.3)
(changes from 2021)

Lab gain from Con

Staffordshire Moorlands, Biddulph West (double vacancy)

Lab 364 (36.8%, +11.5)
Lab 288
Ind Eardley 226 (22.8%, new)
Con 185 (18.7%, -3.7)
Ind McLaughlin 154 (15.6%, new)
Green 61 (6.2%, new)
(changes from 2019 using "top vote" for both; NB there are various ways of calculating percentages here and none are wholly satisfactory)

1 Lab gain fron Ind, 1 Lab gain from Con

Stevenage, Bedwell

Lab 907 (69.8%; +13.0 on 2022, +15.6 on 2021, +15.6 on 2019)
Con 263 (20.2%; -7.1 on 2022, -12.8 on 2021, -3.5 on 2019)
Lib Dem 129 (9.9%; -1.6 on 2022, +0.2 on 2021, +2.0 on 2019)

Lab hold

are these results or predictions?

Results

[YL]

Thursday 26 January

Andrew Teale's preview

Rotherham, Keppel

Lab 745 (36.1%, +4.7)
Lib Dem 445 (21.6%, +14.7)
Ind Currie 381 (18.5%, new)
Yorkshire Party 314 (15.2%, +3.5)
Con 119 (5.8%, -18.2)
Green 59 (2.9%, new)
changes from 2021 (using top vote for the 2021 result)

Lab gain from Rotherham Democratic Party who did not defend the seat

[YL]

Based on historical results it would be pretty appalling for Labour if this isn't a Labour gain, although I suppose the Yorkshire Party could be in with a shout if the protest vote is strong enough.

According to Sarah Champion MP on Twitter it was a "massive" Labour win.  I'll put the full figures in the post above when I know them.

Edit: now in.  Not quite what I was expecting from the that tweet, but comfortable enough for Labour (and laughably bad for the Tories).

[YL]

Thursday 2 February

Andrew Teale's preview

Bristol, Hotwells & Harbourside

Green 537 (43.0%, +11.0)
Lib Dem 511 (40.9%, +7.6)
Lab 153 (12.2%, -13.2)
Con 34 (2.7%, -6.6)
Ind Booth 14 (1.1%, new)
(changes from 2021)

Green gain from Lib Dem

NB the Lib Dem candidate is former Bristol West MP Stephen Williams.

North Northamptonshire, Northall

Lab 1027 (38.0%, -3.7)
Con 805 (29.8%, -14.6)
Green 658 (24.4%, new)
Lib Dem 127 (4.7%, -9.3)
Reform UK 85 (3.1%, new)
(changes from 2021 "top vote")

Lab gain from Con

Torfaen, Llantarnam

Ind O'Connell 489 (41.7%, new)
Lab 406 (34.6%, +7.4)
Plaid Cymru 111 (9.5%, -8.2)
Con 85 (7.2%, new)
Green 69 (5.9%, -5.1)
Lib Dem 13 (1.1%, new)
(changes from 2022)

Ind "hold"

[YL]

The Hotwells & Harbourside result makes the Greens the largest party on Bristol City Council.  This doesn't matter very much, as there's a Labour executive Mayor, but there is some symbolism.

I doubt the Lib Dem candidate being the former MP helped as much as it would in some places.  He last got elected in 2010 and in that ward an unusually large proportion of the electorate won't have been old enough to vote or even if they did will have lived elsewhere.

[YL]

The Hotwells & Harbourside result makes the Greens the largest party on Bristol City Council.  This doesn't matter very much, as there's a Labour executive Mayor, but there is some symbolism.

I doubt the Lib Dem candidate being the former MP helped as much as it would in some places.  He last got elected in 2010 and in that ward an unusually large proportion of the electorate won't have been old enough to vote or even if they did will have lived elsewhere.

I remember it being speculated in Bermondsey in 2017 that Simon Hughes (who was standing again after having lost in 2015) had already been forgotten or was not known to a big chunk of the electorate. Unlike Stephen Williams, he was a decades-long local institution.

Though there are some examples of recently defeated MPs who did well in local elections.  Ruth George in Whaley Bridge comes to mind, though her Westminster defeat was very recent when she won the by-election.  (In the most recent Derbyshire County Council election there, her defeated Tory opponent was another former MP, though not for High Peak, one Edwina Currie.)

[YL]

Thursday 9 February

Andrew Teale's previews

Cheltenham; Battledown

Lib Dem 877 (52.0%, +11.2 on 2022, +12.9 on 2021)
Con 609 (36.1%, -10.3 on 2022, -10.2 on 2021)
Green 156 (9.3%, -3.5 on 2022, +0.8 on 2021)
Lab 43 (2.6%, new from 2022, -3.5 on 2021)
(Cheltenham elects by halves)

Lib Dem gain from Con

Dartford; Wilmington, Sutton-at-Hone & Hawley

Con 808 (69.0%, +18.1 on 2019 top vote, -4.3 on May 2021, +1.2 on Jan 2022)
Lab 285 (24.3%, +10.8 on 2019 top vote, +2.0 on May 2021, +5.8 on Jan 2022)
Green 78 (6.7%, new)
(this being the third by-election in this ward since the last regular Dartford election)

Con hold

Hertfordshire County Council; Hitchin North

Lab 1992 (65.8%,+12.7)
Con 526 (17.4%, -9.5)
Green 415 (13.7%, +3.3)
Christian People’s Alliance 93 (3.1%, new)
(changes from 2021)

Lab hold

North Yorkshire; Masham & Fountains

Lib Dem 1349 (62.7%, +37.2)
Con 801 (37.3%, -6.9)
changes from 2022; NB the Independent candidate in 2022 was the Lib Dem candidate this time

Lib Dem gain from Con

Denbighshire; Rhyl Tŷ Newydd

Con 336 (40.1%, -0.5)
Lab 329 (38.8%, -20.7)
Plaid 101 (12.0%, new)
Ind Rowlands 72 (8.6%, new)
Lib Dem 5 (0.6%, new)
(changes from 2022 top vote)

Con gain from Lab

[YL]

Good night for the Lib Dems (though I don't think either was exactly a surprise), and Rhyl WTF?

By the way the victorious Lib Dem (previously Independent) candidate in Masham & Fountains is the Countess of Swinton, and her husband the Earl is Willie Whitelaw's grandson.

[YL]

... and the Dartford result supports the feeling that there are some parts of the country where the Government's unpopularity isn't really affecting the Tory performance.

[YL]

Thursday 16 February

Andrew Teale's previews

Cornwall; Long Rock, Marazion & St Erth

Lib Dem 811 (45.4%, +22.0)
Con 503 (28.1%, -8.3)
Green 244 (13.6%, +2.5)
Lab 230 (12.9%, +1.2)
(changes from 2021)

Lib Dem gain from Con

Barnet; Golders Green

Con 1623 (66.8%, +1.6)
Lab 547 (22.5%, +3.0)
Rejoin EU 99 (4.1%, new)
Green 94 (3.9%, -2.3)
Lib Dem 65 (2.7%, -3.0)
(changes from 2022 top vote)

Con hold

Cambridgeshire County Council; St Neots The Eatons

Lib Dem 1042 (43.5%, new)
Con 746 (31.1%, -5.3)
Ind Maslen 360 (15.0%, new)
Lab 260 (10.4%, -2.5)
(changes from 2021)

Lib Dem gain from St Neots Independents who did not defend the seat

Sefton; Netherton & Orrell

Lab 1001 (82.5%, +9.3 on 2022, +7.3 on 2021, +9.8 on 2019)
Con 119 (9.8%, +2.4 on 2022, -0.7 on 2021, +4.1 on 2019)
Ind Champian 94 (7.7%, new)

Lab hold

[YL]

So another good week for the Lib Dems, but that's a robust Tory vote in Golders Green.

[YL]

It should also be remembered that Golders Green is anyway likely to be somewhere where the Tory vote is particularly robust.

Lewis Baston wrote an article making that point.

[YL]

Thursday 23 February

Andrew Teale's previews

Aberdeen; Dyce/Bucksburn/Danestone

First preferences

SNP 1455 (30.8%, -10.5)
Lab 1227 (26.0%, +8.2)
Con 1190 (25.2%, -1.0)
Lib Dem 452 (9.6%, +0.8)
Alba 178 (3.8%, new)
Green 111 (2.3%, -2.2)
Scottish Family Party 60 (1.3%, -0.1)
Ind McLean 52 (1.1%, new)

Lab gain from Con after transfers; here's a diagram from Ballot Box Scotland showing the transfers:
https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1629085293683920897

Wrexham; Smithfield

Plaid Cymru 152 (38.2%, -3.1)
Lab 128 (32.2%, -2.2)
Ind Johnson 59 (14.8%, new)
Lib Dem 29 (7.3%, new)
Ind Bennett 19 (4.8%, -10.9)
Ind Prince 11 (2.8%, new)
(changes from 2022)

Plaid Cymru hold

[YL]

That Aberdeen result seems rather good for Labour and poor for the SNP.

(It's a gain from Con, but it's one of those AV by-elections in STV systems where the incumbent party was always likely to lose.)

[YL]

And yet Labour failed to take the much "easier" target in North Wales.

Different defending parties (could the SNP leadership situation have had an effect in Aberdeen?), inevitably different circumstances.  I wouldn't think there's much about the UK-wide position you can read into a Plaid/Labour marginal in a local election in an English speaking part of Wales; I doubt Plaid have much strength there in General Elections.

[YL]

Thursday 2 March

Andrew Teale's previews

Kent County Council; Hythe West

Green 1568 (43.8%, +6.0)
Con 1081 (30.2%, -18.9)
Lab 384 (10.7%, +1.2)
Ind Meyers 306 (8.6%, new)
Ind Weatherhead 237 (6.6%, "new"; see below)
changes from 2021

NB: Ind Weatherhead is the originally Conservative councillor whose resignation caused the by-election

Green gain from Con

Oxfordshire County Council; Rose Hill & Littlemore

Lab 1169 (43.9%, -8.4)
Ind Evans 1046 (39.3%, +27.7)
Con 227 (8.5%, -9.1)
Green 120 (4.5%, -8.6)
Lib Dem 75 (2.8%, -2.6)
TUSC 23 (0.9%, new)
changes from 2021

Lab hold

Oxford; Littlemore

Lab 607 (44.9%; +0.6 on 2022, -5.8 on 2021 top)
Ind Evans 507 (37.5%; new)
Con 135 (9.9%; -1.6 on 2022, -13.0 on 2021 top)
Green 65 (4.8%; -1.7 on 2022, -10.6 on 2021 top)
Lib Dem 26 (1.9%; -1.5 on 2022, -8.1 on 2021 top)
TUSC 12 (0.9%; new)

Lab hold

Staffordshire County Council; Watling South

Con 858 (46.6%, -20.0)
Lab 714 (38.8%, +10.1)
Lib Dem 160 (8.7%, new)
Reform UK 110 (6.0%, new)
changes from 2021

Con hold

Tamworth; Belgrave

Con 334 (34.3%; -8.1 on 2022, -26.6 on 2021, -5.0 on 2019)
Lab 314 (32.2%; -3.5 on 2022, -1.0 on 2021, +5.2 on 2019)
Ind Taylor 251 (25.8%; new)
Reform UK 40 (4.1%; new)
Green 35 (3.6%; -2.5 on 2022, new from 2021, -2.7 on 2019)

Con hold

Newcastle upon Tyne; Byker

Lab 591 (46.9%; -18.1 on 2022, -11.1 on 2021 top, -7.8 on 2019)
Green 375 (29.7%; +15.3 on 2022, +15.1 on 2021 top, +20.1 on 2019)
Lib Dem 188 (14.9%; +9.2 on 2022, +9.6 on 2021 top, +10.8 on 2019)
Con 107 (8.5%; -6.5 on 2022, -13.7 on 2021 top, +3.4 on 2019)

Lab hold

[YL]

The Tamworth result seems a bit underwhelming for Labour, though of course it's hard to judge how things might have gone without the Independent.  (The Staffs County Council election, also in Tamworth, for which we're still waiting, doesn't have an Independent, but the areas involved don't overlap.)

Edit: the County Council result was a bit better, still not enough to gain the seat, but it is the sort of place where Con+UKIP were over 70% in 2021.

[YL]

One other thing: those Reform UK performances.  Surely Tamworth is the sort of area they ought to be getting decent vote shares if they are anywhere?

[YL]

Thursday 9 March

Andrew Teale's previews

Edinburgh; Murrayfield/Corstorphine

Lib Dem 4577 (56.0%, +6.2)
SNP 1086 (13.3%, -5.4)
Con 788 (9.6%, -6.3)
Lab 568 (7.0%, -0.9)
Green 417 (5.1%, -1.8)
Ind Miller 327 (4.0%, new)
Ind Gregson 295 (3.6%, new)
Scottish Family Party 90 (1.1%, +0.3)
Libertarian 20 (0.2%, new)
(changes from 2022)

Lib Dem gain from SNP

Haringey; Tottenham Hale

Lab 818 (58.7%, -9.5)
Lib Dem 203 (14.6%, +6.6)
Green 192 (13.8%, -1.8)
Con 81 (5.8%, -2.5)
Ind Negusse Ghebreawariat 64 (4.6%, new)
Christian People's Alliance 35 (2.5%, new)
changes from 2022 top vote

Lab hold

Hounslow; Heston West

Lab 1104 (52.4%, -11.8)
Lib Dem 470 (22.3%, new)
Con 419 (19.9%, -0.1)
Green 65 (3.1%, -12.2)
Ind Kuleba 48 (2.3%, new)
changes from 2022 top vote

Lab hold

[YL]

As usual for a by-election in an STV system the "Lib Dem gain from SNP" message in Edinburgh is a little misleading, but it is still a good result for the former and underwhelming for the latter.  With the Lib Dem share above 50% they win on the first round, so no need for transfers; indeed in a three seat STV election on those percentages it's possible that three well balanced Lib Dem candidates might take all three seats in the ward.

[YL]

Thursday 16 March

Andrew Teale's previews

South Cambridgeshire; Cottenham

Lib Dem 864 (41.7%, -21.3)
Con 678 (32.7%, +12.4)
Lab 373 (18.0%, new)
Green 107 (5.2%, -11.5)
Ind Pilsworth 52 (2.5%, new)
(changes from 2022)

Lib Dem hold

Stirling; Dunblane & Bridge of Allan

First preferences:
Con 1832 (41.0%, +11.0)
SNP 1202 (26.9%, +1.0)
Lab 600 (13.4%, +1.5)
Lib Dem 399 (8.9%, -0.5)
Green 389 (8.7%, -7.3)
Scottish Family Party 50 (1.1%, +0.4)
(changes from 2022 first preferences)

Con gain from SNP
(transfer figures don't seem to be available yet)