UK General Discussion: Rishecession

[Torrain]

Can we actually get a NUT map to look at?

Maps:
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1575929404366106624
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1575526882853810192
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fd1jJFjXkAA3vLH?format=jpg&name=medium

Tools:
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.html
https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2022/10/britainpredicts

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Can we actually get a NUT map to look at?

Maps:
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1575929404366106624
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1575526882853810192
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fd1jJFjXkAA3vLH?format=jpg&name=medium

Tools:
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.html
https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2022/10/britainpredicts

I might actually bet on the Tories getting wiped out entirely in Wales, based on the Wales-only polling.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I think I'm at the stage where I unironically support Good King Brian doing what his dear uncle would surely have done in this sort of situation. It would be for the best.

[Joe Republic]

UK Prime Minister Liz Truss has joined the likes of Sonic the Hedgehog and Mario as she stars in her own fast-paced platform game, In Liz We Trust?

Alongside the launch of titles such as FIFA 23, Overwatch 2 and The Last of Us Part 1, In Liz We Trust? has joined the recently released lists. The 8-bit platformer sees Truss stealing coins from British homes and delivering them to the City of London.

It isn’t plain sailing for Truss though, as she faces the Leader of the Opposition, Sir Keir Starmer, Conservative party member Michael Gove, the Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, as well as regional BBC journalists who are all determined to stop her succeeding. The Prime Minister only has three lives to gather as many coins as possible before it’s game over.

https://downloads.construct.net/inlizwetruss/index.html

[Torrain]

Getting a bad feeling about the next few days...
https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1579914091749314561

[Torrain]

Stephen Hammond (the MP for the ultra marginal Tory-Lib Dem seat of Wimbledon, not to be confused with Philip Hammond, May’s former Chancellor), has broken cover as the first Tory MP to openly call for Trussonomics to be scrapped:
https://mobile.twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1579912033562398720
It remains to be seen whether Hammond is a lone actor, or the first to come out of the woodwork as part of a concerted effort to grab the narrative ahead of PMQs tomorrow - amid serious concerns about the markets.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Getting a bad feeling about the next few days...

The BofE is telling the government they're on their own. It's ensured liquidity in the banks to avoid contagion if pension funds fail and, now that's done, isn't going to put its credibility at risk by further propping up bad fiscal policy. Crunch time is coming for Trussonomics.

[Blair]

Ironically the Bank has u-turned.

I can’t remember if I posted on here but I actually opposed the opponent of Bailey as Governor- his tenure at the FCA saw a rather bad piece of financial regulation- it was over a minor company that cost many normal people a lot of money but his response to the whole affair wasn’t good.

He’s not done anything to change my mind since.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Ironically the Bank has u-turned.

They're apparently assuring markets off the record but it's a game of chicken between the BofE trying to avoid fiscal dominance and the government. If they intervene again it will be the minimum necessary to avoid market failure but they will be loath to shield the govt's policy.

[Torrain]

Ironically the Bank has u-turned.

They're apparently assuring markets off the record but it's a game of chicken between the BofE trying to avoid fiscal dominance and the government. If they intervene again it will be the minimum necessary to avoid market failure but they will be loath to shield the govt's policy.

Aye. I must say, I’m a little worried the Bank are overplaying their hand here. If you publicly say one thing, then immediately brief you’re planning to do the opposite to the FT, you risk significantly undermining confidence in yourself - or at least your public statements.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

If Truss and Co screw this up would we get pound-dollar parity?

[Torrain]

I maintain that appointing Braverman as Home Secretary was Truss’ first mistake. If she had to promise the job to Braverman to win the leadership, then she’s in a fundamentally weak position, and if she just offered it up to her as an ally, then she’s made a major error in judgement.
https://mobile.twitter.com/matt_dathan/status/1580091335763075075
She’s proven not just to be a hardliner with some eye-watering views (see cannabis, Brexit, ECHR, immigration etc), but also a bit of a loose cannon, who doesn’t seem to care for cabinet collective responsibility.

[Pericles]

This cabinet seems unusually weak on the collective responsibility front, Mordaunt's comments about uprating benefits are another example.

[Cassius]

Braverman did literally declare her candidacy for the party leadership in a live BBC interview whilst still serving as a cabinet minister under a Prime Minister who had not (at that point) declared his intention to resign, so it’s not surprising that she’s a loose cannon.

If Truss and Co screw this up would we get pound-dollar parity?

I think the end is pretty much nigh. I’m sure that there’ll be more attempts from Treasury/BoE to kick the can down the road, but I think at long last investors are wising up to the true weakness of the UK economy and are adjusting exchange rates accordingly for a more reasonable valuation of the pound (as, of course, they are also doing for the Euro). Whether it happens this week, next week, in a month or in a year I expect that it will happen.

[Torrain]

Rowdy PMQs in a packed chamber today. Highlights/lowlights:

• Starmer opened asking if Truss backed up Rees-Mogg's claims that the economic crisis is independent of the Government's action over the past week. She dodged the question entirely, and basically read out a paragraph from her conference speech instead.
• Starmer then doubled-down, and focused on mortgages, invoking several constituents who've lost financial security in the past week - asking if Truss understood why they were furious with her.
• Truss kept trying to imply that people were criticising her energy policy, rather than her tax policy. Was actively shouted down by the House when she first tried that strategy - had to stop and try again.
• At one point, Truss had to stop, and then restarted with the words "Mr Speaker, I'm genuinely unclear..." then paused dead in her tracks, at which point the Labour benches started jeering and waving goodbye.
• There are some very loud voices on the government benches cheering Truss on, but wide-shots of the Tory benches look pretty rough. Marginal-seat MPs like Andrew Bowie just staring at Truss in genuine disbelief. Penny Mordaunt looks like she wants the ground to swallow her up.

Truss committed to not cutting public spending - which was met by confusion and laughter in the chamber. Very unclear where any of the money is going to come from for Trussonomics now. U-turn incoming?

Truss ends PMQs with the words: "The last thing we need is a general election."

[CumbrianLefty]

Its certainly the last thing she needs......

[Illiniwek]

Can we actually get a NUT map to look at?

Maps:
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1575929404366106624
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1575526882853810192
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fd1jJFjXkAA3vLH?format=jpg&name=medium

Tools:
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.html
https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2022/10/britainpredicts

Thanks!!

Now then....
 
NUUUUUUUUUT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[DINGO Joe]

Truss ends PMQs with the words: "The last thing we need is a general election."

LoL.  Nice cliffhanger there.

Supposedly she went to the Tea Room afterwards too.

[Torrain]

It’s been doing the rounds, but felt it was worth sharing the first paragraph of the ‘The Iceberg Lady’, the leader article published in this week’s Economist.

Liz Truss is already a historical figure. However long she now lasts in office, she is set to be remembered as the prime minister whose grip on power was the shortest in British political history. Ms Truss entered Downing Street on September 6th. She blew up her own government with a package of unfunded tax cuts and energy-price guarantees on September 23rd. Take away the ten days of mourning after the death of the queen, and she had seven days in control. That is the shelf-life of a lettuce.

Given how closely aligned she is with the magazine on issues like planning reform (they share a mutual disdain for the green belt), it’s impressive just how quickly she’s managed to get them to shun her project for sheer incompetence.

[Torrain]

Truss ends PMQs with the words: "The last thing we need is a general election."

LoL.  Nice cliffhanger there.

Supposedly she went to the Tea Room afterwards too.

And she’ll be in front of the 1922 committee at 17.00, the same time that Redfield and Wilton releases their inaugural Blue Wall poll of 42 marginal Tory seats - which is expected to show the Tories far behind.

Quite a day!

[DINGO Joe]

Can we actually get a NUT map to look at?

Maps:
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1575929404366106624
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1575526882853810192
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fd1jJFjXkAA3vLH?format=jpg&name=medium

Tools:
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.html
https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2022/10/britainpredicts

All of the NUT maps just seem to be uniform swing type of thing, has anyone attempted to do a map with a sizeable chunk of strategic voting?

[Torrain]

Can we actually get a NUT map to look at?

Maps:
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1575929404366106624
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1575526882853810192
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fd1jJFjXkAA3vLH?format=jpg&name=medium

Tools:
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.html
https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2022/10/britainpredicts

All of the NUT maps just seem to be uniform swing type of thing, has anyone attempted to do a map with a sizeable chunk of strategic voting?

Tactical voting is pretty hard to map, especially because it can result in massive swings, not only from right-left, but between Lab and Lib Dem, in a very ideosycratic way. And sometimes it just fails to materialise.

It also varies massively between election cycles. In Scottish elections from 2016-20, tactical voting spiked, preserving a number of unionist MPs and MSPs from all three national parties - but willingness to play ball with the Tories has significantly subsided since then.

We also don't have a clear idea of how much territory the Lib Dems will make up - remember that they doubled their seat count in 1997, even though they received a reduced percentage of the national vote compared to 1992.

Polling like the R&W Blue Wall tracker due this evening may shed some light - but it's not all that representative. The Lib Dems didn't pick up momentum in 1997 until right before the election (a point when Labour lost a few points in the aggregate) - so we might just see people use Labour vs Conservative voting intention as a de facto approve/disapprove metric for the government this far out from election day.

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1580226802617753600
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1580227603645878272

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yeah see this is the thing: if you have a lead nationally of 25pts or whatever you basically sweep the board or close to it with FPTP. It's been so long since we've had a General Election with a PV lead like that that there's a lack of awareness of what it would mean if we really did actually have one...

[mileslunn]

Yeah see this is the thing: if you have a lead nationally of 25pts or whatever you basically sweep the board or close to it with FPTP. It's been so long since we've had a General Election with a PV lead like that that there's a lack of awareness of what it would mean if we really did actually have one...

I kind of think it tightens.  I believe around 20% of 2019 Tory voters planning to vote Labour, but barely 50% planning to go Conservative so that means around 25% or so are undecided and I suspect when push comes to shove most return to Tories.  In particular if a life long Tory voter and upset with them but it's clear they are going to lose anyway, some may feel it's okay to vote for them just to ensure a decent size opposition.  After all Tony Blair had similar leads through much of 90s.  That being said with Labour having a lead this big, only way I could possibly see them not winning is if Tories dump Truss and choose someone public likes more but even that probably not enough to save them.