NJ-GOV 2021 megathread

[Badger]

Murphy did all the supposedly super popular progressive stuff (legalized marijuana, raised taxes on the rich, $15 minimum wage, etc.) and it doesn't seem to have helped at all. Voters do not vote on policy; they vote on vibes. Seems bad for the long-term viability of democracy, IMO.

This has, of course, always been the case.

And in fairness, he made one of THE most disastrous late campaign gaffes in memory. Notably worse than McAuliffe's about education even.

[Badger]

I love how everyone from all sides of politics is just dunking on Sweeney.

Machine politics is a cancer on democracy and needs to die a painful death.

Sweeney stood upto the unions and they spent 5 million against him. Hardly a standard of machines



RIP HERO

It's fun to meme about Sweeney's defeat, but unironically, I do feel his defeat is bad news for NJ, on net.
I worry about big spending taking over the state government if he leaves the scene.

I wouldn't be surprised if Sweeney's loss leads Murphy/legislative Dems to go all-in on an ambitious agenda and causes big backlash against them in 2023 and 2025.

Back in 1991, Dem Governor Florio (who came in with a trifecta) instituted a massive tax increase that resulted in the GOP winning legislative supermajorities.

Yeah, it's good for Ds to have brakes, like Sweeney, there. Either he's a check on the most unpopular things that Ds, drunk on hubris, might want to pass, or the electorate might feel like they have to elect a Republican to provide that check.
Murphy and other Dems don't know how good they have it.

 Murphy's policies are actually quite popular. It's only because he succeeded with a progress of agenda that he likely succeeded rather than being labeled as a do nothing as Biden is, I hate to say somewhat accurately, I'll be at 1st I'll be at for Joe and Kristen, being labeled.

Let's face it, these policies such as a $15 minimum wage, marijuana legalization, and high income tax increases are vastly more politically popular than the sh**t Jack what's his face was pushing. Murphy almost lost because of because of a combination of national trends, the lingering covid shut down, and one of the stupidest and most harmful gaffses a politician has made in recent memory just before an election.

[Badger]

Gotta add here, perhaps the biggest surprise of the night to me was the small  Is percentage margin between Murphy andT-Mac.  If you had told me the latter  It would perform less than 2% points better than the latter, I would've happily assumed that the polls were wrong and we're wrong and The Virginia democratic GOTV effort was strong enough to Is pool it out, and even then I would have wondered why Murphy underperformed under performed so much..

[Badger]

I love how everyone from all sides of politics is just dunking on Sweeney.

Machine politics is a cancer on democracy and needs to die a painful death.

Sweeney stood upto the unions and they spent 5 million against him. Hardly a standard of machines



RIP HERO

It's fun to meme about Sweeney's defeat, but unironically, I do feel his defeat is bad news for NJ, on net.
I worry about big spending taking over the state government if he leaves the scene.

I wouldn't be surprised if Sweeney's loss leads Murphy/legislative Dems to go all-in on an ambitious agenda and causes big backlash against them in 2023 and 2025.

Back in 1991, Dem Governor Florio (who came in with a trifecta) instituted a massive tax increase that resulted in the GOP winning legislative supermajorities.

Yeah, it's good for Ds to have brakes, like Sweeney, there. Either he's a check on the most unpopular things that Ds, drunk on hubris, might want to pass, or the electorate might feel like they have to elect a Republican to provide that check.
Murphy and other Dems don't know how good they have it.

 Murphy's policies are actually quite popular. It's only because he succeeded with a progress of agenda that he likely succeeded rather than being labeled as a do nothing as Biden is, I hate to say somewhat accurately, I'll be at 1st I'll be at for Joe and Kristen, being labeled.

Let's face it, these policies such as a $15 minimum wage, marijuana legalization, and high income tax increases are vastly more politically popular than the sh**t Jack what's his face was pushing. Murphy almost lost because of because of a combination of national trends, the lingering covid shut down, and one of the stupidest and most harmful gaffses a politician has made in recent memory just before an election.

Well, there are definitely things to Murphy's program there were quite popular. But NJ voters didn't seem to give him credit for them very much (in part because he didn't seem to campaign on them as much) and I'm skeptical that they positively love taxes.

If Murphy and the D trifecta overreach on the tax issue it could absolutely give Rs gains in the state legislature. 49 states (including NJ) require balanced budgets. If Murphy has big spending plans, he is likely to have to raise taxes, and if the increases in expenditure are high enough, then the tax increases are going to have to go up accordingly. Either that or they put in a lot of fees, which is essentially a tax by another name, and might still annoy the public.

NJ has high quality-of-life, but that doesn't necessarily mean people are going to accept ever-increasing tax increases to fund higher government expenditures aimed at increasing that. The median voter is probably significantly influenced by the tax issue even if they might not vote on that basis most of the time anymore for the time being. It is that tendency in the state Sweeney represented and thus his defeat could end quite badly for Ds in the long run, even if it sounds all nice and dandy in the short term.

 I will Grant you that high income tax increases are quite popular in theory, they  Is can be effectively spun by opponents contrary to reason and basic arithmetic, But quite effectively in terms of garnering votes.

The problem is republicans are very effective at convincing Joe  Is and Jane middle class that part of their ever annoying tax burden somehow resulted It's even in part from raising taxes on multimillionaires.  "Murphy raised taxes on New Jersey voters? Hey! I hate taxes too! How dare he raise my taxes!"  Meanwhile, over in realityville the fact is Murphy only raised taxes on people earning  20 times that guy's income, but Many if not most voters don't follow politics or state taxation that closely. Keep in mind, these are the same voters who if asked specifically whether or not to Raise taxes on those individuals earning 20 times their income just like Murphy did would overwhelmingly say not just yes, but hell yes.

This is why Murphy's gaff was so incredibly damaging.It practically wrote itself as If an attack he had somehow raised taxes on most, or even many new jersey Voters.

[Badger]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1pWm-E6k-nsFNQZU8oJpYxcN1iVuv2VpA1d0A_03rz1U/edit#gid=1371359546

We're not done counting yet, but it's safe to say the margin won't change too much.
I input my county-only results.

1) Not surprisingly, the highest turnout came from red counties. Their turnout mostly ranged from 59-66% of 2020 turnout. Some of the most important blue counties' turnouts were below 50% of 2020 turnout.

2) Cittarelli improved upon Trump's margin in almost every county by double digits except Hudson county, where margin roughly stayed the same. It is one of the counties Trump made significant inroad in 2020. You'd have thought Cittarelli could input more damage to it. Nope. Truly odd anomaly.

Many Republicans would have voted more if they knew it was going to be this close. Republicans that sat out this election thinking Murphy had it in the bag is going to be banging their feet.

For those interested, I have my bluest and reddest cities in 2020 in "Total" tab, which is the leftmost tab. The bluest city was East Orange City and reddest city was Lakewood. 

Lakewood, huh?  So what did Murphy do to pass off the Orthodox community.

[Badger]

It was always going to be tough to draw a 10-2 map that was waveproof, especially given the trends in South Jersey and the stubborn redness of the northwest. Probably best for D's long-term to go for 9-3, even if in the short-term it makes holding the House marginally more difficult. No reason to make any more incumbents vulnerable than you have to.

The Murphy spook and the Sweeney shocker, happening at the exact time that they did, certainly looks like it could pay dividends for Dems strategically. Always helpful to be reminded of your weak spots going into redistricting.

 This. It's important to remember that New Jersey is still one of those States more likely to vote Republican at the state level than at the federal, but but given How If the 7th district is likely to play out next year and the closeness of some other seats, this is probably a good strategy

[Badger]

https://twitter.com/CAIRNational/status/1458815315568205826

Speaking about Durr.

Durr later apologized, and reiterated that apology during Wednesday's meeting, according to CAIR-NJ. He left the meeting with a copy of the Quran.

"We wanted to dispel any of the incorrect beliefs he has about our community," CAIR-NJ Executive Director Selaedin Maksut said. "We also want to remind him of his responsibility as an elected official. He represents Muslims as well. It's his responsibility to keep their safety in mind."
Maksut called the meeting, "productive."

"Mr. Durr was sincere in his apology, and we welcome his condemnation of Islamophobia and his commitment to renouncing hate-speech," Maksut said.

Okay, so he probably won't actually be an MTG/Blankenship-tier gold mine. Good to know, I guess!

Um, did you actually read what his post from 2019 was?