Will Republicans in New York lose their State Senate majority

[Lunar]

Whether your definition of "reasonably probable" is 70%, 80%, 90%, 95%, or 99%, either your maps prove the probablity is at least that great, or they prove nothing.

Eh, I doubt such a specific quantifier is possible for a term I made so vague.  But basically the pink district in this map is Savino's district in 2010 with another 150,000 people to gain:



Golden lives where the arrow is pointing.  Golden's district is one of the ugliest State Senate districts int he country, but here is Savino's wrapping around it:

As a bonus question, when does risk adversion kick in for a politician? A 30% chance of loss? 20%? 10%? 5%? 1%? When during redistricting have you heard of an incumbent from the majority party voluntering to accept a 50-50 district for the sake of the party? Risk aversion seems to be the norm for politicians.

A very excellent point and one I hope I've made before too.  Politicians are not necessarily willing to "take one for the team", in the redistricting game whatsoever.   Especially in New York, there are at least several Democratic Senators I can think of who would prefer to be in the minority than the majority simply to avoid the responsibility of it all -- when you start talking about the risk of potentially losing one's entire elected position, it all becomes very much amplified

[BigSkyBob]

Whether your definition of "reasonably probable" is 70%, 80%, 90%, 95%, or 99%, either your maps prove the probablity is at least that great, or they prove nothing.

Eh, I doubt such a specific quantifier is possible for a term I made so vague.  But basically the pink district in this map is Savino's district in 2010 with another 150,000 people to gain:

 

This presumes Staten Island is split North and South as it is now. What if a Court choice an East-West split? Now she has 75,000 new residents in Staten Island and 150,000 elsewhere.


Staten Island was once linked with Manhattan.

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A very excellent point and one I hope I've made before too.  Politicians are not necessarily willing to "take one for the team", in the redistricting game whatsoever.   Especially in New York, there are at least several Democratic Senators I can think of who would prefer to be in the minority than the majority simply to avoid the responsibility of it all -- when you start talking about the risk of potentially losing one's entire elected position, it all becomes very much amplified
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