More Vulnerable: Paulsen or Lewis?

[Tekken_Guy]

Which of these two suburban Twin Cities Republican congressmen is more vulnerable in 2018?

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

The one who won last year by 2% rather than by 11%.

[Kamala]

Lewis only won because a left-winger spoiled the election for Craig.

[Ye We Can]

Lewis will lose while Paulsen will probably win.

[Tartarus Sauce]

Lewis, though Paulsen is also highly vulnerable.

[Cactus Jack]

Neither of them are going to have an easy time of it, but Lewis is pretty solidly screwed. He only ever won election in the first place thanks to Trump's performance in Minnesota and a left-wing spoiler candidate.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Lewis is DOA while Paulsen's race is Lean R

[Kingpoleon]

Lewis. He has a lot of strong potential opponents, including Pam Myrha, Elizabeth Kautz, Joe Atkins, Laurie Halverson, and Lori Swanson. Of these, I think Myrha, Kautz, or Swanson could beat Lewis.

On Paulsen's possible opponents: Ron Latz or Melissa Hortman would not be too strong. Jacob Frey, Lisa Bender, Paul Thissen, and Mike Freeman all live in Hennepin County, and one of them might "carpetbag" over to the district.

[KingSweden]

The one who won last year by 2% rather than by 11%.

The correct answer ^

[Nyvin]

Jason Lewis is much more vulnerable.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

On Paulsen's possible opponents: Ron Latz or Melissa Hortman would not be too strong. Jacob Frey, Lisa Bender, Paul Thissen, and Mike Freeman all live in Hennepin County, and one of them might "carpetbag" over to the district.

...
Oh my God you're dumb.

Anyway Lewis is the obvious answer.

I guess I owe an explanation of why this list is so dumb:

Jacob Frey is a Minneapolis City Councilman running for mayor. Meaning next year he'll either be Mayor of Minneapolis, or a former member of the City Council who ran a hard progressive campaign for it. So either have to resign his mayorship to run for a seat in the suburbs he'd never win, or carpetbag and win on that recognition...yeah.

Lisa Bender is a member of the Minneapolis City Council, my councilwoman in fact. She's a Berniecrat known mostly for work for affordable housing, not really someone who'd appeal to that district. And she's a shoo-in to be reelected, so she'll have to resign her seat too.

Paul Thissen is a State Rep from South Minneapolis and former State House Speaker. He's also running for Governor...so obviously he can't run for House as well, even if he doesn't win the nomination by the time that's decided MN-03 should have a candidate decided as well.

Mike Freeman is the Hennepin County Attorney and the only one who makes an ounce of sense, since most of the district is under his jurisdiction. However he's marred by some controversial decisions and has shown zero interest in running for higher offices.

Oh and for that matter Ron Latz does not live in the district either.

[UncleSam]

Idk Lewis' district is R+2 and has elected R congressman for 20 years, votes for R on the presidential level, and Lewis now has incumbency.

Paulsen's district is D+1, votes D on the presidential level, swung hard left in 2016 (Clinton won it by 10 points), and Paulsen won't be gaining any incumbency advantage in 2018 compared to 2016.

Paulsen is definitely more entrenched and it's true that Lewis only won due to a third party run, but it sure seems to me like the Trump effect will hit a LOT harder in Paulsen's district than in Lewis'.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Idk Lewis' district is R+2 and has elected R congressman for 20 years, votes for R on the presidential level, and Lewis now has incumbency.

?
Lewis' district didn't even exist in any recognizable form 20 years ago.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Idk Lewis' district is R+2 and has elected R congressman for 20 years, votes for R on the presidential level, and Lewis now has incumbency.

Paulsen's district is D+1, votes D on the presidential level, swung hard left in 2016 (Clinton won it by 10 points), and Paulsen won't be gaining any incumbency advantage in 2018 compared to 2016.

Paulsen is definitely more entrenched and it's true that Lewis only won due to a third party run, but it sure seems to me like the Trump effect will hit a LOT harder in Paulsen's district than in Lewis'.

Lewis is an very weak incumbent who has said a ton of insanely misogynistic stuff though.  2016 was basically his high-water mark imo.

[Maxwell]

Lewis winning was one of the most shocking things that happened in 2016 - I thought he was going to lose for sure. So I think it's him.

But I think Dems recognize blood is in the water in Paulsen's district, so I suspect he's reasonably vulnerable.

[Xing]

The one who won last year by 2% rather than by 11%.

[Virginiá]

Lewis is DOA while Paulsen's race is Lean R

This sounds about right. Lewis' district is more favorable for Republicans if you go by presidential results, but Lewis isn't that great of a candidate and has a target-rich history of nasty remarks.

Paulsen is in an Obama/Clinton district that went for Hillary by almost 10 points, but he is still a multi-term incumbent and will be harder to beat.

[Kingpoleon]

On Paulsen's possible opponents: Ron Latz or Melissa Hortman would not be too strong. Jacob Frey, Lisa Bender, Paul Thissen, and Mike Freeman all live in Hennepin County, and one of them might "carpetbag" over to the district.

...
Oh my God you're dumb.

Anyway Lewis is the obvious answer.

I guess I owe an explanation of why this list is so dumb:

Jacob Frey is a Minneapolis City Councilman running for mayor. Meaning next year he'll either be Mayor of Minneapolis, or a former member of the City Council who ran a hard progressive campaign for it. So either have to resign his mayorship to run for a seat in the suburbs he'd never win, or carpetbag and win on that recognition...yeah.

Lisa Bender is a member of the Minneapolis City Council, my councilwoman in fact. She's a Berniecrat known mostly for work for affordable housing, not really someone who'd appeal to that district. And she's a shoo-in to be reelected, so she'll have to resign her seat too.

Paul Thissen is a State Rep from South Minneapolis and former State House Speaker. He's also running for Governor...so obviously he can't run for House as well, even if he doesn't win the nomination by the time that's decided MN-03 should have a candidate decided as well.

Mike Freeman is the Hennepin County Attorney and the only one who makes an ounce of sense, since most of the district is under his jurisdiction. However he's marred by some controversial decisions and has shown zero interest in running for higher offices.

Oh and for that matter Ron Latz does not live in the district either.

You have to be the single most predictable person ever. Also, Freeman doesn't live in the district either.

That said, Melissa Hortman really would be a strong candidate, especially considering her past legislative experience. If she can't beat Paulsen, I'm not sure anyone could unless far too much money was poured into the race.