TX-Quinnipiac: Abbott +15

[Southern Reactionary Dem]

Quinnipiac poll of Texas-Gov has:

Greg Abbott (R) 52
Beto O'Rourke (D) 37

Abbott job approval: 53/41
Biden job approval: 32/64
O'Rourke favorability: 36/47

Dec. 2-6, 1224 RVs, MoE +/- 2.8%

https://twitter.com/QuinnipiacPoll/status/1468612239137521671?t=d2vy-Zu6AhS0r1Sy...

Guess people already forgot about how he banned abortion. Lemmings.

Maybe abortion isn't that popular in TX?

[Southern Reactionary Dem]

This is assuming about an R+6 year. Yeeeeesh.

In a Neutral Environment TX was plus 6 and FL is plus 3, all signs point as of now a 304 map Scenario with Biden near 50/45 Approvals

COVID is holding his Approvals down and so are Labor shortages

That wasn't a neutral environment. The popular vote was D+4.5

[Southern Reactionary Dem]

I think there's a dynamic going on (and I think I remember seeing polling that bears this out) where voters who cite abortion as one of their top voting issues tend to be overwhelmingly pro-life while a substantial chunk of pro-choice voters simply don't feel strongly enough to vote on that issue. It's also of course not a completely binary issue. A lot of people feel there should be limits to abortion access, but believe it should remain safe rare and legal. While outlawing abortion totally isn't popular, neither is abortion up to the point of birth. I think most would agree that it shouldn't be done once the fetus reaches viability outside of the womb. The TX law goes further than that and has an obviously bad enforcement mechanism, but they're also significantly right of the nation as a whole and those suburban voters that swung D because they hated Trump personally didn't magically become social liberals overnight.