Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[Xing]

https://twitter.com/KING5Seattle/status/1060366315066613760

RIP Greedo
RIP Rossi fanboys

Remember when Rossi was such a Strong Candidate™ that he would beat Weak Candidate™ Shrill Schrier even in a Democratic tsunami because he carried the district a decade ago?

B-b-b-b-but Democrats have NEVER won this seat before!!! And Democrats haven't won NV-GOV since, like, forever man!

Another electoral truism bites the dust, Dino Rossi loses again. Refreshing to see Democrats finally win this seat, and come reasonably close in WA-03, showing that Herrera Beutler isn't some unbeatable titan.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Rick Scott's lead is down to only 26k now in FL. It sounds like Nelson may have the votes in the end.

I want to see the Orange Clown's meltdown if Desantis or Scott lose.

[Tintrlvr]

Yeah, even with my very cursory look at WA-3's numbers, it's going to be a tight race that we won't know the result of for several days.

Yes--- Washington SoS office currently has it at + 13,070 R lead....

Clark County--- (Largest Vote Bank in the CD)

Estimated 30k votes OUT

Currently a 51-49% D Lead.... (These margins will likely increase with later voters).

Not implausible at all to see a 60-40 % D breakdown (+6k D)

Cowlitz County --- 2nd largest by vote share is heavily Ancestral DEM (Longview and Camas) and currently + 3.6k R (55-45 R), and shift workers out there tend to be Younger

Estimated 10k Votes OUT

Not implausible to see a 50-50 split....

Lewis County: =- 3rd largest by Vote share and politically reactionary for over 100 Years where local business leaders murdered Four Labor Activists in cold blood in Centralia, as part of an orchestrated campaign of mob violence, that helped trigger the rise of the "Red Scare" and Palmer Raids of the late 1910s/ early 1920s).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Centralia_massacre_(Washington)

Estimated 6.8k votes OUT

Was (68-32 R) in ballots counted to date.... I would expect PUBS to gain numbers out of Lewis County, and even a 55-45 R number still adds +2k R raw votes.

So although it might seem like an early call, reality is that DEMs will likely need to win a HUGE % of outstanding votes from Clark, win 55-45 in outstanding ballots from Cowlitz, *HOPE* the outstanding ballots from Lewis are much less overwhelmingly PUB than the first dump numbers...

Additionally there is a giant wildcard in the WA-SoS has ~30k estimated voters as a placeholder.... we don't *know* the exact number yet---- so yes I think the call was premature, considering the estimated % of votes outstanding vs margins, but obviously the PUBs still have a lead on this race.

Ironically, NYT just joined CNN in calling this one for Herrera Beutler. I doubt that gets overturned although I am in total agreement that the final result will be quite close, maybe even within 1,000 votes.

[IceSpear]

https://twitter.com/KING5Seattle/status/1060366315066613760

RIP Greedo
RIP Rossi fanboys

Remember when Rossi was such a Strong Candidate™ that he would beat Weak Candidate™ Shrill Schrier even in a Democratic tsunami because he carried the district a decade ago?

B-b-b-b-but Democrats have NEVER won this seat before!!! And Democrats haven't won NV-GOV since, like, forever man!

Another electoral truism bites the dust, Dino Rossi loses again. Refreshing to see Democrats finally win this seat, and come reasonably close in WA-03, showing that Herrera Beutler isn't some unbeatable titan.

Hopefully WA Dems get serious about defeating Herrera Beutler in 2020 and don't give her a free pass like they did from 2012-2016.

[Beet]

https://twitter.com/KING5Seattle/status/1060366315066613760

Well we've finally taken Dave Reichert's congressional district. This was the source of a very guttural and heart-wrenching wail of disappointment from a coworker of mine after election 2008. But now, the ghost of Darcy Burner's political career can finally Rest In Peace.

Ah, I remember the Darcy Burner days. Luckily her losses happened in otherwise amazing nights for Democrats, so it was hard to feel too bad about it.

As I see it, this race was an epic battle between two titanic forces, the Democrats' losing streak in WA-08 (an unstoppable force) and Dino Rossi's losing streak (an immovable object).

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Why hasn't NYT called NY-22 for Brindisi?

[pppolitics]

When should Arizona results come in?

Tomorrow at 5pm!!!

**For those who want data now**
Im looking at the results that have been published by precinct and I have to say, I am more impressed than I was intending to be - in regards to Sinema making inroads in the East Valley (CD5) which is a very middle class/college educated trumpland

 I suppose I will share with you one of my arizona election/data secrets.
These are pdf's of the 2018 election and 2016 election. You can search a precinct individually in each to compare. I dont expect most of you to know precincts off the bat so heres some you can search for reference(In parenthesis is the early vote advantage):

the ctrl+F search method will be a great friend while doing this

Lantana Canyon(+11.9R)
Nightingale(+19.2R)
***Sun Groves*** (+11R) - take a look at this one
Bayshore (+14.2R)
Highland(+33.3R) - do not confuse with the "desert highland" precinct

you get the gist
keep in mind the numbers that are reporting rn in maricopa are early votes only and e-day votes which averaged +9.2R for maricopa county

2016 election precinct results :
https://recorder.maricopa.gov/electionarchives/2016/11-08-2016%20Final%20Precinct%20Report.pdf

2018 early/eday precinct results:
https://recorder.maricopa.gov/media/Detail.pdf

Let's say that the uncounted ballot voted the same way as the counted ballot so far, who would win?

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

https://twitter.com/KING5Seattle/status/1060366315066613760

Well we've finally taken Dave Reichert's congressional district. This was the source of a very guttural and heart-wrenching wail of disappointment from a coworker of mine after election 2008. But now, the ghost of Darcy Burner's political career can finally Rest In Peace.

Ah, I remember the Darcy Burner days. Luckily her losses happened in otherwise amazing nights for Democrats, so it was hard to feel too bad about it.

As I see it, this race was an epic battle between two titanic forces, the Democrats' losing streak in WA-08 (an unstoppable force) and Dino Rossi's losing streak (an immovable object).

I've seen the same said, writ large, about the Democrats' blue red wave in the House and Trump's red blue firewall in the statewide races. It seems like a reasonable narrative, and while it's obviously terrible news for the integrity of American society, it might be good news for democracy qua democracy since turnout was so high.

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://twitter.com/KING5Seattle/status/1060366315066613760

Well we've finally taken Dave Reichert's congressional district. This was the source of a very guttural and heart-wrenching wail of disappointment from a coworker of mine after election 2008. But now, the ghost of Darcy Burner's political career can finally Rest In Peace.

Ah, I remember the Darcy Burner days. Luckily her losses happened in otherwise amazing nights for Democrats, so it was hard to feel too bad about it.

As I see it, this race was an epic battle between two titanic forces, the Democrats' losing streak in WA-08 (an unstoppable force) and Dino Rossi's losing streak (an immovable object).

I've seen the same said, writ large, about the Democrats' blue red wave in the House and Trump's red blue firewall in the statewide races. It seems like a reasonable narrative, and while it's obviously terrible news for the integrity of American society, it might be good news for democracy qua democracy since turnout was so high.

Yeah, whatever else can be said about this midterm, the historically high turnout is worth celebrating.

[MT Treasurer]

A Republican equivalent of Tester would be a Republican senator from New York who votes like he's from Kansas and somehow keeps getting reelected over and over again.

Montana isn’t nearly as Republican as New York is Democratic...

Maybe Connecticut is a better comparison? It has a Republican streak statewide in the way Montana does a Democratic one.

Such comparisons are obviously far from perfect, but I’d say Maine comes closest to it.

[J. J.]

Does anyone else think that Mitt Romney's win in Utah was a little underwhelming? Barley getting 60% and losing two counties he won when he ran in 2012, plus maybe an outside shot of losing Salt Lake County.

Romney's win was very underwhelming. He did about 9% worse as compared to 2012, and as you have noted, lost two counties (and only narrowly won Salt Lake County). Why Romney underperformed to such an extent is beyond me. Some people on here actually thought he would get 80% of the vote!

He isn't exactly a long term Utah resident.

[Panda Express]

MacArthur going down is one of the top scalps of this election. He was the architect of the Obamacare repeal bill. Few deserve to go down more than him.

[J. J.]

McSally gained a tenth of a point.

[Calthrina950]

Does anyone else think that Mitt Romney's win in Utah was a little underwhelming? Barley getting 60% and losing two counties he won when he ran in 2012, plus maybe an outside shot of losing Salt Lake County.

Romney's win was very underwhelming. He did about 9% worse as compared to 2012, and as you have noted, lost two counties (and only narrowly won Salt Lake County). Why Romney underperformed to such an extent is beyond me. Some people on here actually thought he would get 80% of the vote!

He isn't exactly a long term Utah resident.

That is true. Romney's carpetbagging may very well have been a factor, and the fact that he failed to win the Republican state convention vote outright earlier this year may have been an indicator of his general election underperformance. But still, I'm surprised that Wilson managed to win not just one but two counties, and that she only lost Salt Lake County to Romney by 3 points. She did better than both Snow and Clinton.

[NOVA Green]

Yeah, even with my very cursory look at WA-3's numbers, it's going to be a tight race that we won't know the result of for several days.

Yes--- Washington SoS office currently has it at + 13,070 R lead....

Clark County--- (Largest Vote Bank in the CD)

Estimated 30k votes OUT

Currently a 51-49% D Lead.... (These margins will likely increase with later voters).

Not implausible at all to see a 60-40 % D breakdown (+6k D)

Cowlitz County --- 2nd largest by vote share is heavily Ancestral DEM (Longview and Camas) and currently + 3.6k R (55-45 R), and shift workers out there tend to be Younger

Estimated 10k Votes OUT

Not implausible to see a 50-50 split....

Lewis County: =- 3rd largest by Vote share and politically reactionary for over 100 Years where local business leaders murdered Four Labor Activists in cold blood in Centralia, as part of an orchestrated campaign of mob violence, that helped trigger the rise of the "Red Scare" and Palmer Raids of the late 1910s/ early 1920s).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Centralia_massacre_(Washington)

Estimated 6.8k votes OUT

Was (68-32 R) in ballots counted to date.... I would expect PUBS to gain numbers out of Lewis County, and even a 55-45 R number still adds +2k R raw votes.

So although it might seem like an early call, reality is that DEMs will likely need to win a HUGE % of outstanding votes from Clark, win 55-45 in outstanding ballots from Cowlitz, *HOPE* the outstanding ballots from Lewis are much less overwhelmingly PUB than the first dump numbers...

Additionally there is a giant wildcard in the WA-SoS has ~30k estimated voters as a placeholder.... we don't *know* the exact number yet---- so yes I think the call was premature, considering the estimated % of votes outstanding vs margins, but obviously the PUBs still have a lead on this race.

Ironically, NYT just joined CNN in calling this one for Herrera Beutler. I doubt that gets overturned although I am in total agreement that the final result will be quite close, maybe even within 1,000 votes.

Not surprising considering the nature of the district... the closest comparison I might make would be  something more akin to OR CD-04....

Difference being that despite the relatively large % of votes from Clark County, it's actually much swingier and more working-class than Lane, without a relatively larger student population.

Cowlitz County is more like Columbia County OR, but is a significant % of District Vote Share, and is extremely receptive towards Political Candidates that protect American Jobs from the ILWU members in Longview and Pulp Mill workers in Camas, that see how "Free Trade" has benefited our communities, while we see our paper mills shut down, the trees from our forests dumped onto Giant Cargo ships and sent over to Asia, and most recently China, so we "re-import" recycled toilet paper, and sawdust while our Mills are getting shut down destroying small town and rural communities throughout the Pacific Northwest.

The story is not yet over in Communities in the Pacific Northwest, and this is part of the reason why we saw major swings in places where both Democratic and Republican Presidents alike over the past three decades participated in this charade, ever since Bush Sr rammed through MFN with China, Clinton enthusiastically backed much of the same crap NAFTA, Bush Jr was too busy sending our kids to Iraq, destroying the US Economy, then we get Obama who tried to get some decent stuff done but was handcuffed by PUBs after the '10 Elections, and then we get HRC vs DJT?

Minor rant aside, but hell these are the types of conversations that happen in the smoking break areas, and break rooms of relatively smaller and tight-knit communities outside of the "Core" and living reality in the "Periphery"....

In many parts of the US, we see ourselves as essentially Internal Colonies, dominated by the "Core".

This isn't an intellectual debate, so much as it is the perception that many of us have, where it comes to the recognition of where real political power lies, and also the "haves and have nots" in communities that have been suffering for decades, while meanwhile the largest Metro areas of the PacNW whine about their "Great Recession" and the loss of their Housing value, while meanwhile we were fighting to get extension of unemployment benefits, losing our houses, and now that things are rosy and it's "morning in America again".

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World-systems_theory

[KingSweden]

There’s nothing quite like Longview/Kelso in Columbia Co, Oregon, though.

[gf20202]

Would Republicans be doing this if they had it in the bag?

https://www.azfamily.com/news/arizona-republicans-suing-secretary-of-state-michelle-reagan-all-county/article_7882e55e-e311-11e8-b13a-7fe9d14f2400.html

Things are going to get real on Thursday.

[Panda Express]

Another good thing is that we have a decent-sized majority without those annoying Blue Dogs. Ordinary progressives were able to win, or be competitive, in many districts across the country.

[Calthrina950]

Another good thing is that we have a decent-sized majority without those annoying Blue Dogs. Ordinary progressives were able to win, or be competitive, in many districts across the country.

What do you make of the results in Colorado?

[NOVA Green]

There’s nothing quite like Longview/Kelso in Columbia Co, Oregon, though.

Quoted for Truth...  still it's one of the only bridges over the Columbia River between Portland and Astoria on the Oregon side of the State border....

Columbia and Cowlitz are still in many ways Sister counties in many regards, especially considering the traffic over the bridge during shift changes....

One could make a decent argument regarding the increased % of workers commuting to Suburban PDX and to the Port of Portland from SE Columbia County (Which is where recently we have seen the greatest swings towards the Dems). My Daughter and Son-In-Law now live way out in St. Johns, and to commute into PDX drive through the Dock Districts, Warehouses, and Industrial Zoned areas to make their way from US-20 heading East, in order to hit the Freeways that can route them towards the fringes of I-5.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/St._Johns,_Portland,_Oregon

Columbia County is increasingly becoming a place where Repair and Maintenance (R&M), Facility workers, electricians and trade folks are willing to trade off longer commutes for cheaper Cost of Living (CoL), to be able to afford housing in industries where long hours on the road are billable to the customer as part of a traditional "Port-to-Port"  billing structure for skilled workers in certain industries.

Sure... you are absolutely correct that Columbia County is very different from Cowlitz County, especially when it comes to historical Labor Movement History (Even in recent years)...

https://www.ilwu.org/ilwu-rallies-grain-workers-locked-out-by-mitsui-in-vancouver/

https://www.jacobinmag.com/2014/08/unions-that-used-to-strike/

http://archive.ilwu.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/19680705.pdf

[philly09]

Don't look now but... the  Florida races aren't over.

Rick Scott 50.1%

Bill Nelson 49.9%

Nelson is down by only 22,000 votes

Ron DeSantis 49.6%

Andrew Gillum 49.1%

Gillum is down by only 43,000 votes.

[lfromnj]

Don't look now but... the  Florida races aren't over.

Rick Scott 50.1%

Bill Nelson 49.9%

Nelson is down by only 22,000 votes

Ron DeSantis 49.6%

Andrew Gillum 49.1%

Gillum is down by only 43,000 votes.

Gillum is done 43000 is way too large.
I give Nelson 1/10

[philly09]

Don't look now but... the  Florida races aren't over.

Rick Scott 50.1%

Bill Nelson 49.9%

Nelson is down by only 22,000 votes

Ron DeSantis 49.6%

Andrew Gillum 49.1%

Gillum is down by only 43,000 votes.

Gillum is done 43000 is way too large.
I give Nelson 1/10

True, but they keep gaining votes and lowering their deficits, Gillum was down by 68,000.

[Mr. Smith]

Don't look now but... the  Florida races aren't over.

Rick Scott 50.1%

Bill Nelson 49.9%

Nelson is down by only 22,000 votes

Ron DeSantis 49.6%

Andrew Gillum 49.1%

Gillum is down by only 43,000 votes.

Gillum is done 43000 is way too large.
I give Nelson 1/10

True, but they keep gaining votes and lowering their deficits, Gillum was down by 68,000.

Still too high a price for Gillum. But Nelson...improbable, but not implausible. I consider him done.

Still better chance for Sinema than either of them.

[IceSpear]

Wait, Nelson could seriously still win?! NUT.

Does anyone know how many votes are left to count in FL?