PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/RyanCostello/status/1347361567101378560

This may be one of the first tests of a post-Trump GOP. If Costello runs, I'm on board with him. In any case, I think the moderates (Costello, Dent, Fitzpatrick) will coalesce around one of the three.

[Roll Roons]

I’m still on board with Reschenthaler, because the others are too moderate for me.

As Reschenthaler's constituent, you do NOT want this guy in the U.S. Senate.

He seems like the PA version of Mike Gallagher. It's not like we're talking about Senator Doug Mastriano here, are we?

https://twitter.com/GReschenthaler/status/1346868343295389704

Truly a sane Republican

Yikes. Tbh I used to think he would have been a decent backup if Costello/Fitz/Dent didn't run.

[Roll Roons]

Yeah Doug Mastriano is a fascist who should be in prison tbh.

If, god forbid, he runs and gets the nomination, the race will immediately shift from a Tossup to Likely D. He is as weak as Roy Moore (minus the pedophilia), but in a much less red state.

[Roll Roons]

Is there a consensus on the R nominee?

Former Rep. Ryan Costello is making noise about running, but probably won't get through the primary. Reps. Brian Fitzpatrick and Guy Reschenthaler are probably going to run, with Reschenthaler starting as the favorite in the primary.

I don't see Fitzpatrick and Costello both running. There's also the possibility for a hardcore Trumpy candidate like Kelly, Perry or Mastriano.

[Roll Roons]

Is there a consensus on the R nominee?

Former Rep. Ryan Costello is making noise about running, but probably won't get through the primary. Reps. Brian Fitzpatrick and Guy Reschenthaler are probably going to run, with Reschenthaler starting as the favorite in the primary.

I don't see Fitzpatrick and Costello both running. There's also the possibility for a hardcore Trumpy candidate like Kelly, Perry or Mastriano.

accept the inevitability of don jr

If he's the nominee, I will do my part to make sure the Democrat, whether it be Fetterman or someone else, wins the seat. The Trumps should be nowhere near public office. They are the single most dangerous and destructive family in our country's history.

[Roll Roons]

Why is Kenney unpopular?

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https://www.politico.com/news/2021/01/29/trump-navy-secretary-pennsylvania-senate-463848

Former Trump Navy Secretary Kenneth Braithwaite may be considering a bid. He also worked for Arlen Specter, so he's hardly a full-blown MAGA guy.

[Roll Roons]

I agree Cartwright is probably a better choice but there's no indication he's going to make a bid for it.

Per several members of his campaign staff, he would prefer to stay in the House, so they’re waiting to see whether redistricting screws him or Susan Wild over.  He has seniority on her, and could theoretically pick up the rest of Monroe and Northampton in redistricting, while Wild gets pushed further west.  But if Matt ends up adding Susquehanna, Wayne, Carbon, or the red portions of Luzerne, he’ll probably jump into the Senate race.

Wait, why Senate and not Governor? Who's gonna replace Wolf?

Shapiro is the Democratic frontrunner for governor, and there's no reason to think he won't get the nomination. 

[Roll Roons]

Boring take: Unless Republicans nominate a complete disaster of a candidate, this will quickly turn into a generic R vs. generic D vote, regardless of whether Democrats nominate Lamb, Cartwright, or Fetterman. (1) What’s Biden's approval on election day? (2) How high is R turnout in rural/small-town PA? And there you have your winner. It’s more likely than not that the Democratic candidate for SEN slightly outperforms Biden's approval %, but it won’t be by more than 1-2% (granted, that could be enough in a very close race). Tilt R for now.

Never put it past Republican primary voters to do exactly that.

[Roll Roons]

Why haven't any serious Republicans actually announced yet?

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What Republicans are running?

No major ones have announced yet, but Ryan Costello and Guy Reschenthaler are both rumored.

[Roll Roons]

Is Dean actually a good candidate? Pretty sure she underperformed Biden by several points.

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Am I the only one who gets major Randy Bryce vibes from John Fetterman? 

I certainly do. Being the darling of Twitter progressives, most of whom probably don't live in the state, does not necessarily translate to actual electoral appeal. Fetterman has never run for a major office on his own.

I think Democrats are more likely to hold the governorship than to win the Senate seat (which is still a pure tossup in my book). At least Shapiro has proven strength as a candidate.

[Roll Roons]

Several interesting names here:
https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1380732323897823234/photo/1

[Roll Roons]

I know as a more liberal site then not we mostly going to be talking about the dem primary but is there really no reps of note running or rumored of running?

I’ve heard Reschenthaler has been rumored to run, but I haven’t heard anything about him recently.

Him being the GOP nominee would probably be the best case scenario for the Dems.

Why would Reschenthaler be so bad? Mastriano would probably be even weaker lol.

[Roll Roons]

If he can get through the primary, he'll be formidable. Much stronger than Fetterman.

[Roll Roons]

>tfw non-zero possibility of Lamb joining Sinema and Manchin

I doubt it. There's a huge difference between being from a Biden state and being from the second most pro-Trump state in the country. Plus, wouldn't you rather have Senator Conor Lamb than Senator Sean Parnell or Doug Mastriano?

[Roll Roons]

If the apparatus backs Lamb, it will mark my point of no return with the Democratic Party. Manchinism must be stopped if the party is truly interested in making policy.

At least Manchin consistently overperformed top-of-the-ticket Democrats.

Lamb over-performed quite a bit in both the special and the 2018 GE.  In 2020, unlike most congressional Democrats in tough districts, he matched Biden’s showing IIRC.  Plus, every election he’s run in was a competitive race and he’s currently three for three.  I get not trusting him for ideological reasons - although I don’t think he’d be as bad as Sinema, Manchin, or even Maggie Hassen - and I’d even want him to commit to some things like nuking the filibuster. 

That said, while he’s not a Cartwright-level over-performer, he has an excellent electoral track record and is a good fit for PA.  And I don’t see how one can argue Lamb would be less electable than Fetterman, Kenyatta, or Street.  Maybe we don’t need Lamb to win and it isn’t worth the ideological tradeoff, but he’s definitely the strongest candidate currently running from an electability standpoint.

Yes. On his own, Fetterman has never won an election for anything higher than mayor of a small town. Street and Kenyatta have only won in extremely blue state legislative districts, and may have trouble running in a statewide race where they'll have to appeal to moderate and conservative-leaning voters.

[Roll Roons]

How much did Lamb raise?

[Roll Roons]

In honor of today's news, may I present this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FCiW-R5bY2k

One of the most... unique political ads I've ever seen.

[Roll Roons]

Even in the massive red wave year of 2010, Toomey only won by 2 points. Parnell really could blow this even as the GOP simultaneously flips one or more of AZ, GA, NV and NH.

[Roll Roons]

If Parnell stays in and gets the nomination, I honestly would call him an underdog in the general.

[Roll Roons]

Despite the Trump endorsement, I never thought Parnell was anywhere close to a lock in this primary. Wonder if Costello or Reschenthaler get in now.

[Roll Roons]

He just seems like a total wildcard to me. I could see him catching fire and getting the nomination like Trump did in 2016, but he could also be a complete flop like Caitlyn Jenner in the recall.

[Roll Roons]

As for a candidate less exciting than Dr. Oz, former congressman Keith Rothfus, last seen losing to Conor Lamb by double digits in 2018, is reportedly considering:
https://twitter.com/akarl_smith/status/1465828217693089797