PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

The Fetterman=Bryce comparisons are very lazy, are you just looking at them and assuming they're similar because of their build and perhaps some of their rhetoric? Otherwise I see literally no reason, Fetterman and Bryce are very different in just about everyway they could be.

Except they’re really not all that different...

No? Randy Bryce was just a guy who was a perennial failed candidate with a light criminal record.

John Fetterman is a longtime Mayor and the current sitting Lieutenant Governor. They are in no way similar. This is very lazy analysis.

What do you mean? They are both working class presenting middle aged men with facial hair from Midwestern swing states. They’re practically identical!

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The Fetterman=Bryce comparisons are very lazy, are you just looking at them and assuming they're similar because of their build and perhaps some of their rhetoric? Otherwise I see literally no reason, Fetterman and Bryce are very different in just about everyway they could be.

Except they’re really not all that different...

Uh aside from being blue collar looking white guys they basically have nothing in common. Bryce was some random perennial candidate with a dodgy legal background, Fetterman is the state's sitting Lt. Governor with an impressive mayoral record and no real scandals. Fetterman is also a proven strong campaigner, Bryce had no real strength in that.

[KaiserDave]

The Fetterman=Bryce comparisons are very lazy, are you just looking at them and assuming they're similar because of their build and perhaps some of their rhetoric? Otherwise I see literally no reason, Fetterman and Bryce are very different in just about everyway they could be.

Except they’re really not all that different...

No? Randy Bryce was just a guy who was a perennial failed candidate with a light criminal record.

John Fetterman is a longtime Mayor and the current sitting Lieutenant Governor. They are in no way similar. This is very lazy analysis.

What do you mean? They are both working class presenting middle aged men with facial hair from Midwestern swing states. They’re practically identical!

They both are liked by leftists on Twitter! They are identical!!!

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The Fetterman=Bryce comparisons are very lazy, are you just looking at them and assuming they're similar because of their build and perhaps some of their rhetoric? Otherwise I see literally no reason, Fetterman and Bryce are very different in just about everyway they could be.

Except they’re really not all that different...

No? Randy Bryce was just a guy who was a perennial failed candidate with a light criminal record.

John Fetterman is a longtime Mayor and the current sitting Lieutenant Governor. They are in no way similar. This is very lazy analysis.

What do you mean? They are both working class presenting middle aged men with facial hair from Midwestern swing states. They’re practically identical!

They both are liked by leftists on Twitter! They are identical!!!

Serious question:

Are you or leecannon actually interested in having a discussion or just here to post lazy, bad-faith, straw men?  

I’d be happy to make an effort-post when I have a chance (it’ll probably be tomorrow) explaining why I think Fetterman has a lot in common with Bryce (hint: most of it isn’t the stuff you guys mentioned in your straw man posts) and I’d welcome your thoughts on said analysis if you still disagree, but if - and I say this as someone who thinks both of you are generally solid posters - you’re just gonna keep posting obnoxious straw men like the quoted posts regardless of what I say, then I don’t want to waste any of our time.  Fair enough?

Honestly, the reason I sometimes hesitate to make actual effort posts as opposed to something quicker like “Except they’re really not all that different...” is b/c it’s hard to tell around here when folks are actually looking for meaningful discourse and when making a more thoughtful post is just a waste of time.

[KaiserDave]

The Fetterman=Bryce comparisons are very lazy, are you just looking at them and assuming they're similar because of their build and perhaps some of their rhetoric? Otherwise I see literally no reason, Fetterman and Bryce are very different in just about everyway they could be.

Except they’re really not all that different...

No? Randy Bryce was just a guy who was a perennial failed candidate with a light criminal record.

John Fetterman is a longtime Mayor and the current sitting Lieutenant Governor. They are in no way similar. This is very lazy analysis.

What do you mean? They are both working class presenting middle aged men with facial hair from Midwestern swing states. They’re practically identical!

They both are liked by leftists on Twitter! They are identical!!!

Serious question:

Are you or leecannon actually interested in having a discussion or just here to post lazy, bad-faith, straw men?  

I’d be happy to make an effort-post when I have a chance (it’ll probably be tomorrow) explaining why I think Fetterman has a lot in common with Bryce (hint: most of it isn’t the stuff you guys mentioned in your straw man posts) and I’d welcome your thoughts on said analysis if you still disagree, but if - and I say this as someone who thinks both of you are generally solid posters - you’re just gonna keep posting obnoxious straw men like the quoted posts regardless of what I say, then I don’t want to waste any of our time.  Fair enough?

Honestly, the reason I sometimes hesitate to make actual effort posts as opposed to something quicker like “Except they’re really not all that different...” is b/c it’s hard to tell around here when folks are actually looking for meaningful discourse and when making a more thoughtful post is just a waste of time.

Whoa. Here come the anti fun police. Not allowed to have fun on the Congressional Elections board huh?

Well if you post an effort post, I will respond in kind because this is a belief I actually hold. But if you'd rather write out weird high horse criticisms that's fine too.

[Pheurton Skeurto]

Kathy Barnette, who unsuccessfully challenged Madeleine Dean in 2020, in:

https://twitter.com/kathy4truth/status/1379418622255366145?s=21

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Safe Fetterman PA aren't gonna vote for a Black Republican just like in MU. The Rs really must have a weak bench if this is all they can do

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Kathy Barnette, who unsuccessfully challenged Madeleine Dean in 2020, in:

https://twitter.com/kathy4truth/status/1379418622255366145?s=21

Lol.

[wbrocks67]

Has Kathy Barnette conceded yet to Madeleine Dean in PA-04? Didn't think so. She's a total whackadoodle. Grifters gonna grift.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No one is beating Fetterman or Bob Casey, PA is gone for Rs or even Shapiro

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The Fetterman=Bryce comparisons are very lazy, are you just looking at them and assuming they're similar because of their build and perhaps some of their rhetoric? Otherwise I see literally no reason, Fetterman and Bryce are very different in just about everyway they could be.

Except they’re really not all that different...

No? Randy Bryce was just a guy who was a perennial failed candidate with a light criminal record.

John Fetterman is a longtime Mayor and the current sitting Lieutenant Governor. They are in no way similar. This is very lazy analysis.

What do you mean? They are both working class presenting middle aged men with facial hair from Midwestern swing states. They’re practically identical!

They both are liked by leftists on Twitter! They are identical!!!

Serious question:

Are you or leecannon actually interested in having a discussion or just here to post lazy, bad-faith, straw men?  

I’d be happy to make an effort-post when I have a chance (it’ll probably be tomorrow) explaining why I think Fetterman has a lot in common with Bryce (hint: most of it isn’t the stuff you guys mentioned in your straw man posts) and I’d welcome your thoughts on said analysis if you still disagree, but if - and I say this as someone who thinks both of you are generally solid posters - you’re just gonna keep posting obnoxious straw men like the quoted posts regardless of what I say, then I don’t want to waste any of our time.  Fair enough?

Honestly, the reason I sometimes hesitate to make actual effort posts as opposed to something quicker like “Except they’re really not all that different...” is b/c it’s hard to tell around here when folks are actually looking for meaningful discourse and when making a more thoughtful post is just a waste of time.

Whoa. Here come the anti fun police. Not allowed to have fun on the Congressional Elections board huh?

Well if you post an effort post, I will respond in kind because this is a belief I actually hold. But if you'd rather write out weird high horse criticisms that's fine too.

I mean, if your idea of fun is posting obnoxious straw men in lieu of something even remotely substantive, then obviously the board would be better off w/o that crap.

[wbrocks67]

Really a greatest hits now of 2020 losers

https://twitter.com/JonathanTamari/status/1379836029490896898

[Pheurton Skeurto]

Really a greatest hits now of 2020 losers

https://twitter.com/JonathanTamari/status/1379836029490896898

Boy, a real cavalcade of clowns here. Whichever one fails upwards and wins the primary will be toast in the general if they eat each other in the primary.

[MT Treasurer]

I get that some people seem to think the Democratic primary is all that matters in this race (this race seems to be the new poster child for Atlas' "Democratic candidate quality matters, all Republican candidates are clowns" shtick), but no Republican will be "toast" in a general election for federal office in PA in 2022, please get real.

[Calthrina950]

I get that some people seem to think the Democratic primary is all that matters in this race (this race seems to be the new poster child for Atlas' "Democratic candidate quality matters, all Republican candidates are clowns" shtick), but no Republican will be "toast" in a general election for federal office in PA in 2022, please get real.

One potentially strong Republican candidate hasn't even announced yet-Guy Reschenthaler. This Senate race is certainly not one which Democrats can take for granted. It's as if people forget that Biden only won the state by slightly over 1%, and he was considered to be the best fit of any Democratic presidential candidate for it.

[Pheurton Skeurto]

I get that some people seem to think the Democratic primary is all that matters in this race (this race seems to be the new poster child for Atlas' "Democratic candidate quality matters, all Republican candidates are clowns" shtick), but no Republican will be "toast" in a general election for federal office in PA in 2022, please get real.

If they nominate some generic Trumpist who wins after a divided primary in which all the other Trumpists eat each other and question each other's loyalty to the former President? Uh, it's not gonna be easy. It didn't work for Scott Wagner in 2018 and he won the primary without the kind of competition that we're going to see in this Senate primary. Wolf won by 17%. I get it's a Biden midterm this time around, but if the Republicans don't run someone worth voting for, people are not going to turn out without Trump's name on the ballot. "Toast" might be too harsh, but it's an uphill battle for a loser like Parnell or Barnette or even Bartos. Their best chance is nominating a Trump ally in Congress who's at least interesting and has a record to run on like Reschenthaler or Meuser, both of whom scare the sh*t out of me as a Democrat.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

I would definitely consider endorsing Sean Parnell. He ran a strong campaign against Conor Lamb (who's no slouch himself - Parnell only lost by 2.2% whereas Trump lost it by 2.5%) and seems pretty open minded on economics. I hope he runs!


Jeff Bartos seems decent too. And Everett Stern interests me too

[MT Treasurer]

I get that some people seem to think the Democratic primary is all that matters in this race (this race seems to be the new poster child for Atlas' "Democratic candidate quality matters, all Republican candidates are clowns" shtick), but no Republican will be "toast" in a general election for federal office in PA in 2022, please get real.

If they nominate some generic Trumpist who wins after a divided primary in which all the other Trumpists eat each other and question each other's loyalty to the former President? Uh, it's not gonna be easy. It didn't work for Scott Wagner in 2018 and he won the primary without the kind of competition that we're going to see in this Senate primary. Wolf won by 17%. I get it's a Biden midterm this time around, but if the Republicans don't run someone worth voting for, people are not going to turn out without Trump's name on the ballot. "Toast" might be too harsh, but it's an uphill battle for a loser like Parnell or Barnette or even Bartos. Their best chance is nominating a Trump ally in Congress who's at least interesting and has a record to run on like Reschenthaler or Meuser, both of whom scare the sh*t out of me as a Democrat.

1) People don’t turn out in midterm elections because of a desire to vote for one particular candidate in one particular race. Running an "inspiring" candidate for a high-profile office does help the out-of-power party in articulating/reinforcing their message, but attitudes toward the current administration & cyclical dynamics will almost always trump any affinity for a particular candidate as an incentive to turn out in such elections. "Inspiring" is also an inherently subjective term — I may deem a Republican inspiring, but you all may not agree!

2) I get that Democrats are counting on R voters not turning out in 2022 because "Trump’s name [is not] on the ballot," but boy, I wouldn’t want to trade places with you guys there.

3) There have been plenty of candidates who emerged from a divisive primary who went on to win a general election, including in the great Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. This isn’t the obstacle people are making it out to be (interestingly only on the R side, I wonder why....).

4) Scott Wagner lost because he was facing a fairly uncontroversial/popular-ish governor in a massive Democratic wave year. He might not have been the best candidate (and 2018 was indeed a pathetic performance by the PA GOP across the board), but a stronger campaign wouldn’t have made a difference in terms of the binary outcome.

5) After two years of a Democratic trifecta, the center of political gravity (in both primary & general elections) may, just may, not revolve around Donald Trump anymore. Granted, if 2022 somehow developed into a referendum on Donald Trump instead of Joe Biden & this Democratic trifecta, I’d be less bearish on D chances as well, but my suspicion is that it won’t.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D's are gonna have a high Turnout, D's just passed 2K Stimulus packages for people, D are plus 4 on the Generic ballot, Gaetz, George Floyd and Voter suppression laws hurt Rs among females and Afro Americans.

Does MT Treasurer not realize people aren't greatful for the Stimulus checks that just received from Biden, D's are plus 9 on Voter ID that just came out

Rs keep losing on the Generic ballot by 3 points, if it's replicated they are gonna lose OH, IA, FL and NC.  You don't keep losing the PVI and have a monopoly on those states that Rs think they have


The Election is 500 days from now, wait until next yr polling, it will come around after we sweep Cali recall, NJ and VA races

[Lognog]

I get that some people seem to think the Democratic primary is all that matters in this race (this race seems to be the new poster child for Atlas' "Democratic candidate quality matters, all Republican candidates are clowns" shtick), but no Republican will be "toast" in a general election for federal office in PA in 2022, please get real.

the GOP primary really is under discussed here, however lack of chatter is indicative of the fact that the PA GOP doesn't really have a bench. Yes, they have two row offices now, but they're probably not the best candidates for this seat and are very green. The GOP delegation here is mostly old backbenchers with a few exceptions. It'll be quite interesting to see whom the party GOP will rally around, but there's so many unknowns as of right now.

Comparing the weak GOP bench to the field of talent that the dems have in the state: Fetterman, Kenyatta, Dean, Wild, Cartwright, Shapiro (yeah ik he's not running), Lamb, Boyle, etc

[America Needs R'hllor]

I would definitely consider endorsing Sean Parnell. He ran a strong campaign against Conor Lamb (who's no slouch himself - Parnell only lost by 2.2% whereas Trump lost it by 2.5%) and seems pretty open minded on economics. I hope he runs!


Jeff Bartos seems decent too. And Everett Stern interests me too

Really? A guy who promoted anti-democratic election conspiracy theories and tried to throw out millions legal votes? Very, very, and let me stress this- very sad.

[sting in the rafters]

I get that some people seem to think the Democratic primary is all that matters in this race (this race seems to be the new poster child for Atlas' "Democratic candidate quality matters, all Republican candidates are clowns" shtick), but no Republican will be "toast" in a general election for federal office in PA in 2022, please get real.

the GOP primary really is under discussed here, however lack of chatter is indicative of the fact that the PA GOP doesn't really have a bench. Yes, they have two row offices now, but they're probably not the best candidates for this seat and are very green. The GOP delegation here is mostly old backbenchers with a few exceptions. It'll be quite interesting to see whom the party GOP will rally around, but there's so many unknowns as of right now.

Comparing the weak GOP bench to the field of talent that the dems have in the state: Fetterman, Kenyatta, Dean, Wild, Cartwright, Shapiro (yeah ik he's not running), Lamb, Boyle, etc

Not only that, but whoever the GOP nominee is has to walk a very fine line between winning over swing voters in the Philly burbs/Lehigh Valley/Wyoming Valley and pumping turnout in Pennsyltucky.

[S019]

While I expect this race to be competitive, regardless of the national environment, surely the GOP can do better than a clown like Sean Parnell. If Parnell is the nominee, I wouldn't be shocked to see this race end up on the list of blown NRSC opportunities. Honestly, the Republicans' best hope here is to boost Costello and hope that they can boost him enough that it won't matter that he voted for Biden or to try to convince Fitzpatrick to enter. Reschenthaler, Meuser, etc. while not the best possible candidates, wouldn't be exactly awful. Jeff Bartos and Sean Parnell is just not an enticing list of candidates, the NRSC can surely do better, and unfortunately (for me and other fellow Democrats), I think they ultimately will. I think this is the purest tossup Senate race right now though.

[If my soul was made of stone]

Honestly, the Republicans' best hope here is to boost Costello and hope that they can boost him enough that it won't matter that he voted for Biden or to try to convince Fitzpatrick to enter.

I doubt that Fitz could win a statewide primary, or that he'd even want to run given that he has a lock on a seat that could otherwise become troublesome for the GOP. Even if he made it past a primary somehow, I'm not sure if he could juice the turnout from the hardcore Republican base that's needed in addition to defections nowadays. Looking back at Toomey's two runs, I doubt that a Republican Senate nominee is carrying Chester or Lehigh again anytime soon, and he underperformed quite strongly in a number of counties that had been Democratic-leaning within the prior quarter-century, failing to crack 60% in, for example, ​Washington or Westmoreland. I think that we'd see a similar dynamic with Fitz.

[wbrocks67]

I get that some people seem to think the Democratic primary is all that matters in this race (this race seems to be the new poster child for Atlas' "Democratic candidate quality matters, all Republican candidates are clowns" shtick), but no Republican will be "toast" in a general election for federal office in PA in 2022, please get real.

One potentially strong Republican candidate hasn't even announced yet-Guy Reschenthaler. This Senate race is certainly not one which Democrats can take for granted. It's as if people forget that Biden only won the state by slightly over 1%, and he was considered to be the best fit of any Democratic presidential candidate for it.

Biden won though despite the fact that Trump got all of his Trumpers out to vote, which does not happen in off year elections as we've seen. There was record turnout, with Trump nearly maxing out his rurals in PA, and he still lost by 80,000 votes. So it kinda goes both ways here. The GOP candidate is not going to have that advantage, as we saw with 2018 and the special elections since 2016.