Minnesota- Why can't the GOP get the job done there?

[eric82oslo]

In case people are interested...Change in White Vote for all 2012 exit poll states...

Thanks. I rearranged it from most to least drop off.


1. Missouri - 57% McCain, 65% Romney - R+8
2. Arizona - 59% McCain, 66% Romney - R+7 (strange thing they preferred Romney to their ow son!)
3. Montana - 52% McCain, 59% Romney - R+7
4. California - 52% Obama, 53% Romney - R+6-7
5. Wisconsin - 54% Obama, 51% Romney - R+6-7?
6. Indiana - 54% McCain, 60% Romney - R+6
7. Pennsylvania - 51% McCain, 57% Romney - R+6
8. New Jersey - 50% McCain, 56% Romney - R+6
9. Maryland - 49% McCain, 55% Romney - R+6
10. Colorado - 50% Obama, 54% Romney - R+5-6?
11. Kansas - 59% McCain, 64% Romney - R+5
12. Florida - 56% McCain, 61% Romney - R+5
13. Ohio - 52% McCain, 57% Romney - R+5
14. Michigan - 50% McCain, 55% Romney - R+5
15. Illinois - 51% Obama, 52% Romney - -R+4-5?
16. North Carolina - 64% McCain, 68% Romney - R+4
17. Minnesota - 53% Obama, 49% Romney - R+3-4?
18. Nevada - 53% McCain, 56% Romney - R+3
19. Oregon - 57% Obama, 54% Obama - R+3
20. New Hampshire - 54% Obama, 51% Obama - R+3
21. New York - 52% Obama, 49% Obama/Romney - R+3
22. Washington - 55% Obama, 53% Obama - R+2
23. Massachusetts - 59% Obama, 57% Obama - R+2
24. Vermont - 68% Obama, 66% Obama - R+2
25. Mississippi - 88% McCain, 89% Romney - R+1
26. Virginia - 60% McCain, 61% Romney - R+1
27. Maine - 58% Obama, 57% Obama - R+1
28. New Mexico - 56% McCain, 56% Romney - No change
29. Connecticut - 51% Obama, 51% Obama - No change
29. Iowa - 51% Obama, 51% Obama - No change
31. Alabama - 88% McCain, 84% Romney - D+4


So is Alabama becoming more like Missouri? What could explain these huge differences among the states, being a difference of R+12 among Missouri and Alabama (R+24 when you count the margin instead). Sampling error? Or could it be as simple as very religious Alabamans not trusting a Marmon, while religious Missourians apparently did trust him?

[eric82oslo]

Would you like me to do a list based on margins for states and not just the % won?

Model: Alabama: 88%-10% McCain, 84%-15% Romney

Would be nice.

[eric82oslo]

Alright:

This gives us:

1. Missouri: 57%-42% McCain, 65%-32% Romney = R+18%
2. Arizona: 59%-40% McCain, 66%-32% Romney = R+15%
3. Michigan: 51%-47% Obama, 55%-44% Romney = R+15%
4. Montana: 52%-45% McCain, 59%-38% Romney = R+14%
5. California: 52%-46% Obama, 53%-45% Romney = R+14%
6. Indiana: 54%-45% McCain, 60%-38% Romney = R+13%
7. Kansas: 59%-40% McCain, 64%-33% Romney = R+12%
8. Pennsylvania: 51%-48% McCain, 57%-42% Romney = R+12%
9. New Jersey: 50%-49% McCain, 56%-43% Romney = R+12%
10. Wisconsin: 54%-45% Obama, 51%-48% Romney = R+12%
11. Florida: 56%-42% McCain, 61%-37% Romney = R+10%
12. Ohio: 52%-46% McCain, 57%-41% Romney = R+10%
13. Maryland: 49%-47% McCain, 55%-43% Romney = R+10%
14. Colorado: 50%-48% Obama, 54%-44% Romney = R+10%
15. North Carolina: 64%-35% McCain, 68%-31% Romney = R+8%
16. Minnesota: 53%-46% Obama, 49%-48% Romney = R+8%
17. Oregon: 57%-40% Obama, 54%-44% Obama = R+7%
18. Illinois: 51%-48% Obama, 52%-46% Romney = R+6%
19. New York: 52%-46% Obama, 49%-49% Obama/Romney = R+6%
20. New Hampshire: 54%-44% Obama, 51%-47% Obama = R+6%
21. Washington: 55%-42% Obama, 53%-46% Obama = R+6%
22. Nevada: 53%-45% McCain, 56%-43% Romney = R+5%
23. Massachusetts: 59%-39% Obama, 57%-42% Obama = R+5%
24. Vermont: 68%-31% Obama, 66%-33% Obama = R+4%
25. Virginia: 60%-39% McCain, 61%-37% Romney = R+3%
26. Mississippi: 88%-11% McCain, 89%-10% Romney = R+2%
27. Connecticut: 51%-46% Obama, 51%-48% Obama = R+2%
28. New Mexico: 56%-42% McCain, 56%-41% Romney = R+1%
29. Maine: 58%-40% Obama, 57%-40% Obama = R+1%
30. Iowa: 51%-47% Obama, 51%-47% Obama = No change
31. Alabama: 88%-10% McCain, 84%-15% Romney = D+9%

So the real change in the white vote between Missouri and Alabama was actually even larger, at 27%. Alabama had been R+78% vs Missouri being R+15%. In 2012 it was Alabama R+69% vs Missouri R+33%. It's a remarkable shift for two states which just 4 years ago voted so differently.