OH-Sen 2022: So you’re telling me there’s a chance

[Coldstream]

This entire thread is like peaking into an alternate reality, honestly

This thread makes Mandel look (almost) reasonable.

[Coldstream]

I think I speak for all of us when I say, what are these salacious lurid and unvetted rumours about Josh Mandel? (Popcorn eating GIF).

[Coldstream]

I think I speak for all of us when I say, what are these salacious lurid and unvetted rumours about Josh Mandel? (Popcorn eating GIF).

I don't know the exact rumors, but it is public knowledge that Mandel divorced his wife a couple years ago, and was dating or is currently dating a staffer on his campaign. Multiple people have left his campaign because of a toxic work environment caused by his relationship. I'm guessing there's more to this story

That’s not salacious or lurid 😔

[Coldstream]

I don’t know whether Trump is just stupid, has useless advisers, or just naturally gravitates to other frauds. Vance is the most likely to lose a GE & the most likely to be disloyal should they both be in office together. Mandel, Timken actually believe in Trumpist lunacy, and Gibbons is a Rand Paul type who will go along with the isolationist stuff. Vance quite plainly believes in nothing, he’s like Lindsey Graham. There is literally no upside to this for Trump.

[Coldstream]

I don’t know whether Trump is just stupid, has useless advisers, or just naturally gravitates to other frauds. Vance is the most likely to lose a GE & the most likely to be disloyal should they both be in office together. Mandel, Timken actually believe in Trumpist lunacy, and Gibbons is a Rand Paul type who will go along with the isolationist stuff. Vance quite plainly believes in nothing, he’s like Lindsey Graham. There is literally no upside to this for Trump.

Most likely to lose a GE..? It's Safe R either way.

The possibility of a republican losing Ohio in this environment shouldn't even be discussed seriously.

The most recent GCB was D+3, now I expect the Republicans to win both this senate race and the eventual total vote, but acting like this is some R+20 year is ridiculous. It’s more than possible that a guy as unlikeable, inexperienced and impossible to relate to like Vance could lose - even if I don’t personally expect him to. Whilst there’s no chance even a creep like Mandel would lose it.

If anyone in this race has Akin/Moore style skeletons in his closet, it’ll be Vance.

[Coldstream]

I don’t know whether Trump is just stupid, has useless advisers, or just naturally gravitates to other frauds. Vance is the most likely to lose a GE & the most likely to be disloyal should they both be in office together. Mandel, Timken actually believe in Trumpist lunacy, and Gibbons is a Rand Paul type who will go along with the isolationist stuff. Vance quite plainly believes in nothing, he’s like Lindsey Graham. There is literally no upside to this for Trump.

Most likely to lose a GE..? It's Safe R either way.

The possibility of a republican losing Ohio in this environment shouldn't even be discussed seriously.

The most recent GCB was D+3, now I expect the Republicans to win both this senate race and the eventual total vote, but acting like this is some R+20 year is ridiculous. It’s more than possible that a guy as unlikeable, inexperienced and impossible to relate to like Vance could lose - even if I don’t personally expect him to. Whilst there’s no chance even a creep like Mandel would lose it.

If anyone in this race has Akin/Moore style skeletons in his closet, it’ll be Vance.

Yes, I don't see Vance relating well with the young white college-educated urban internet forum poster crowd.

Jeez people, y'all act like because YOU can't relate to him, nobody else can. When Vance wins the GE easily, it's going to be another smack to the face to how detached this crowd is from everyone else.

And I don't even want to defend Vance here. But this is absurd.

Just…what on Earth are you talking about? Literally his only supporters were aggressively online before a couple of weeks ago, there’s a reason he was on 4% before Trump came in to the picture.

If he wins the primary it’ll be because of Trump, if he wins the GE it’ll be because of the R next to his name - in spite of everything else about him.

If I’m guilty of overestimating people then so be it, but I think there is something deeply wrong with you if you believe a multi millionaire hedge fund guy who worked for *Peter Thiel* and changes ideologies the way normal people change clothes is ‘relatable’.

[Coldstream]

I don’t know whether Trump is just stupid, has useless advisers, or just naturally gravitates to other frauds. Vance is the most likely to lose a GE & the most likely to be disloyal should they both be in office together. Mandel, Timken actually believe in Trumpist lunacy, and Gibbons is a Rand Paul type who will go along with the isolationist stuff. Vance quite plainly believes in nothing, he’s like Lindsey Graham. There is literally no upside to this for Trump.

I really believe Mandel actually had the greatest chance of losing an all but impossible to lose race.

In Mandel’s defence, he has actually won a statewide election.

[Coldstream]

I don’t know whether Trump is just stupid, has useless advisers, or just naturally gravitates to other frauds. Vance is the most likely to lose a GE & the most likely to be disloyal should they both be in office together. Mandel, Timken actually believe in Trumpist lunacy, and Gibbons is a Rand Paul type who will go along with the isolationist stuff. Vance quite plainly believes in nothing, he’s like Lindsey Graham. There is literally no upside to this for Trump.

You clearly have very little knowledge about Vance or Ohio politics in general. Let me educate you briefly.

1. The Ohio senate race in the general election in Safe R. Not only is the state GOP by about 10 points generally, but it's a red wave midterm year. Whoever wins the GOP primary will win the general.

2. Vance is not the weakest candidate in the race. That quite easily goes to Mandel, who is well known for being fake and a fraud, in addition to being totally unserious. I can see why Timken or Gibbons might do better than Vance in a GE, but he's still not the weakest candidate.

3. Vance is very ideological, and more so than any other candidate in the race. While he may have joined it in the last 5 years, he really does hold a firm set of ideological convictions that fall under the National Conservative and Paleoconservative label. There's a reason why he is the favorite of ideologically driven right-wing institutions like Claremont, American Moment, and the American Conservative magazine, and why people like Tucker Carlson and Peter Thiel (who is very ideological himself and a known member of the National Conservative wing of the party) backed him very early on. Vance holds a very genuine ideology of paternalistic conservatism which is a far cry from the canned talking points and plastic nature of his opponents. There isn't a fake bone in his body, and even though he has drifted to where he is now over the past 5 years, it was a genuine shift and not driven out of political conformity. His conversion to Catholicism which occurred concurrently proves this.

Nevertheless, I am overjoyed that Vance received Trump's endorsement, and i'm enjoying the cope from left wingers and establishment Republicans alike.

If you think Vance (and Thiel) care about anything besides their bank accounts I pity you.

[Coldstream]

Turns out Vance and I have something in common, we both think his supporters are idiots.

[Coldstream]

Ryan winning is of course a massive long shot. But normal people do not want a hedge fund creep like JD Vance representing them, the R next to his name may get him over the line - but it’s hardly surprising he’s struggling. Ryan will also completely destroy him during the debates (not because he’s great, because Vance is terrible) which may or may not matter.

[Coldstream]

Ryan winning is of course a massive long shot. But normal people do not want a hedge fund creep like JD Vance representing them, the R next to his name may get him over the line - but it’s hardly surprising he’s struggling. Ryan will also completely destroy him during the debates (not because he’s great, because Vance is terrible) which may or may not matter.

is there going to be a debate in this race?

According to an AP article I just saw, but I didn’t do any actual digging.