Congressional Special Election (last call! unstickied after NY-27 final results)

[Badger]

Can the democrats please stop trying to steal elections?

It's a bipartisan board voting unanimously. If it was a 5 to 4 decision I would be outraged too but a unanimous decision suggests maybe there is a problem

You're talking to an ignorant hack who until recently had a Hitler quote in his signature.

Honestly, the only worst hacks on this forum who exercise even worse judgement... Would be of course the moderators who let him stay after he did so.

[Badger]

Lets wait before calling it GOP voter fraud. It does seem to look like it but can we all just wait?

When the Republican majority On The Board of Elections unanimously refuse to certify the elections based on obvious fraud that would have in their opinion changed the results, the extreme, and I mean extreme, statistical anomalies of several Bladen County precincts going for Harris, the rather obvious TwoPlusTwo conclusion to be drawn from the similar facts in these various affidavits, the individual identified in these photographs being referred to as a republican operative, for gosh sakes why?

There's jumping to conclusions, and then there's reaching a reasonable conclusion based on the facts. This is clearly the ladder. The only issue here is whether or not it is determined to be sufficient enough to Warrant ordering a new election. However, Mason the extremely close nature of his election and the numbers of most this appears to have changed, I can only see one realistic remedy here.

[Badger]

Its also possible the Democratic House just refuses to seat Harris and calls for special election.

absolutely disgusting
Let this bipartisan board do it together. If scotus rules that the board is unconstitutional but the board says for SE id be fine them refusing to seat Harris but the house should not be able to do this.

I mean there are instances where the House refusing to seat someone would be legitimate, such as where the state refuses to investigate and take action on rather blatant fraud. Not that North Carolina is an instance of this (so far, though case looks strong), but the House being able to refuse to seat is a good backstop in a country where states hold a lot of power over elections to Congress.

Also, if the NCGOP tries to short-circuit this investigation in any way, then yes, it would make sense to refuse to seat him. I think the state party is already suing to force them to certify it, so that is one step towards trying to sweep this under the rug.

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Overall I think it wouldn't be wise to refuse to seat Harris though, unless it becomes clear that there are more fraudulent votes for him that put him over the top. Democrats have to remember that just because you can do something, does not mean you should. It's also something I really wish Republicans would learn as well (no hope there tho). Otherwise, it'd be better to just dismantle the group responsible for these fraudulent ballots and put them in prison, along with anyone who supported them.

The bipartisan board is already left leaning with the indie . The board should have the final decision unless it's obvious

Oh for Pete's sake...

"Left leaning"?!? The board voted unanimously, repeat unanimously, including every single Republican on the board, not to certify the election due to blatant fraud.

What is with you? You've rarely been so hackish to my recollection.

[Badger]

Madam Speaker Pelosi must take a stand and refuse to seat Harris under any condition.  

I certainly think this situation is incredibly suspect and needs a thorough investigation, maybe even a whole new election. Still, though, I can't condone refusing to seat him if everything somehow comes up clean.

Agreed 101%. However, there's a lot of information available about this situation, and based on what it is there's only three possible outcomes.

1. This turned out to be a whole big misunderstanding with Miss stated evidence and something everyone will just laugh and get it over with. Chances of this realistically, less than 5% at best. Seriously, if it was enough to get the Republicans on an election board in a hyper-partisan state like North Carolina with the most partisan GOP organization in the country to unanimously vote that there were serious Shenanigans going on, you can count on it.

Two. A full and impartial investigation is done and, if even a fraction of these allegations turn out to be well-founded, a new election needs to be ordered. If so, Harris is hopefully, and justifiably screwed, even in a special election.

Three. The North Carolina GOP acts according to character, or lack thereof, and does everything in anything humanly possible to support and certify the voter fraud that they so passionately oppose when it comes to creating legal blocks that make it tougher for people to vote, ever so coincidentally particularly burning the poor and people of color, in which case Pelosi needs to stand firm and refused to certify Harris. Hell, depending on the outcome the investigation they may very well go ahead and certify McCready, again if even half of these allegations proof true. This was a close election and with widespread extreme voter fraud.

Under situation two or three, two things are apparent. First, one or more people need to do prison time. Secondly, like with most things, Republican allegations of voter fraud are mostly a combination of an argument necessary to convince themselves and look themselves in the mirror and maintain any Pride over voter suppression to retain power, and an equal part pure projection.

[Badger]

As of right now Id say is a 70 percent chance of fraud happening . 40 60 the fraud affects the margin mathematically and about 25 percent that Harris is involved

IMHO, that 70% figure is extremely low based on what we know that's far. It would take an absolute sea change in the facts to be otherwise.

It is almost impossible to come up with a quantitative figures to How likely it would have reversed the margin. Again, the reports indicate writable evidence of actual vote shredding. However, the numbers of day of absentee balloting end the Republican friendly Natura of them was enormous, and probably without even a single shredded Democratic ballot, not to mention how many ballots that were collected from McCready voters in filled out for Harris as the affidavits repeatedly indicate, it would have alone likely flip the election. But again, the only thing one can say is a considerable number of ballots work Forge, and an unknown number destroyed in an ultra close election. I think you're just projecting here and trying to say it doesn't matter.

Third, if you are saying a 25% chance that Harris personally new about these efforts, as opposed to members of his campaign which it appears near certain? Yeah, I'll say that there's at least a 25% chance of that.

[Badger]

although the NC GOP is a complete sh**t show and I don't trust them I really wish the board was a bit more open about the situation. Most of the info we know is from journalists going directly to the county.

It's a literal criminal investigation at this point. How transparent should it be?

[Badger]

The title needs to be changed to 7-2 refuses to certify

That put was regarding holding a hearing by a certain date. The vote not to certify was in fact nine to nothing.

[Badger]

This also shows how useless voter ID laws are since they do nothing to prevent absentee ballot fraud,  which is where the vast majority of voter fraud (The little of it there is) occurs.

It’s where the vast majority of prosecuted* voter fraud is.

Neither you nor any other living soul has any idea how many non-citizens vote in California. Again, no one has ANY idea - I’m not saying it definitely happens because I don’t know, but I also know that you don’t know it doesn’t happen because there would be no way of knowing.

The point of voter ID laws is to know for sure who votes in our elections. The point against them is because Dems know that in as much as we don’t know, whoever is sliding through the cracks is likely voting for their candidates by large margins.

When you offer driver’s licenses to anyone and then only require a deiver’s license to vote, it is not unreasonable for an outsider to think that maybe the state doesn’t care about non-citizens voting. Look up the laws and requirements in California if you don’t believe me.

Your shiny hat needs a new layer of Reynolds Wrap.

[Badger]

Why do you keep bringing up different data and not responding to the data I and others bring up? You implied Harris’ 61% in absentee was in line with his ED vote in Bladen. Do you now see it’s a red flag?

The reason why is that I am capable of looking at data and making an independent conclusion.

Others (perhaps including you) have certain prejudices.

You should consider a third category here besides 1) election data and 2) personal prejudices. The third category is artifacts from the reporting and incipient criminal case here which is being heavily investigated and reported on and which led the bi-partisan board of elections to refuse to certify the election.

You haven't made the argument for throwing all of that out and only considering speculative and possibly tendentious interpretations of data in order to reach a conclusion. And it looks like you're choosing not to engage with what's being reported or investigated, and that's confusing.

What is being "reported" is incomplete or biased.

It seems that you are suggesting if something is "reported" it is facially truthful and complete.

Have you spent any time looking at the actual data dumps from the NCSBE?

Have you spent any time comparing the population of the votes cast in different precincts relative to their population?

Did you notice that three One Stop locations from 2016 were not operated in 2018, and that election turnout was up in those precincts relative to 2016, even though overall turnout was down.

Have you looked at past elections results from Bladen County?

Jimtex, you offer generally very good observations on the redistricting board. However, your "analysis" here is bordering on JJ level obstinacy.

Try to concede that the North Carolina Republican party might have a point in saying that things are obviously fishy here?

[Badger]

I have to say, although the closest of the primary and the insanely suspicious absentee ballot totals in Bladen County scream voter fraud, is that truly enough to order a new primary election? That was several months ago and it seems to me hitting her has foregone any right to challenge that reason salt as the deadlines for doing so have a long long past. The fact that such fraud was discovered during the general election shouldn't necessarily reopen the door. Frankly, he's make comments that he knew just what kind of sleazebags were operating in Bladen County, and those numbers should have warranted his calling for a full and complete investigation which would have likely uncovered this stuff. Hell, didn't take journalists much Beyond knocking on a few doors and asking questions.

I admit, part of this is me wanting to see Harris collapse like the Hindenburg when he goes to the polls again, and to avoid any chance that Republicans rally enough to beat McCready in a special election. They forfeited this seat and deserve to lose.

[Badger]

lmbo:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

fwiw, Lutz does come up as a Democrat in a search of NC's voter registrations: https://vt.ncsbe.gov/RegLkup/

Roy moore was a Democrat when he molested those girls

He was also a far right-wing conservative too. Your point?

[Badger]

https://www.latimes.com/opinion/editorials/la-ed-ballot-harvesting-20181207-story.html

I mean how can ballot harvesting be considered something good? I take the position of the LA time editorial except for the ca21st where it almost certainly flipped it but idc about that. I just don't think people should be allowed to collect another's ballot to deliver it to the election board.

I wasn't talking about that lol

It was in response to jim's musing that we basically disallow absentee voting (mail) in almost all cases except when they are out of county, which is a patently absurd proposal.

I'm not fundamentally against not allowing "ballot harvesting." But it was already illegal in North Carolina, which, as I stated in my post, was evidently a law that was never enforced for god knows what reason. So my question to you is, if it's already illegal and they are still doing it, what do you do then? State authorities and election boards apparently abdicated their duty to run fraud-free elections here.

oh I just ignored jimtrex lol.

I haven't ignored him per se, but I absolutely just scroll past his wall of text meanderings. It's very sad to see a generally quality poster revert to such obstinate hackishness.

[Badger]

lmbo:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

fwiw, Lutz does come up as a Democrat in a search of NC's voter registrations: https://vt.ncsbe.gov/RegLkup/

Roy moore was a Democrat when he molested those girls

He was also a far right-wing conservative too. Your point?

That was my point

Got it. Sometimes with text it's tough to pick up on sarcasm / irony.

[Badger]

Might I suggest something totally outlandish as a hot take?

What's going on right now in NC is actually a sign that the system works if you let it work. What Harris' campaign did was against the law and they got caught and Harris' people look likely to face legal sanction while the election seems extremely likely to head to a revote. Perhaps what it shows is that we really need the eagle-eyed nerds of Data Twitter and the hard-working SBOEs like NCs to solve these suspicious discrepancies when they show up.

^^^^

[Badger]

If the GOP is caving you know it's worse than what has been revealed.

[Badger]

The Dems on the NCSBE need to grow a pair and order a new election before the GOP passes their new bill forcing a new primary. The evidence is overwhelming there is no reason to drag this out further.

Why would you want that, other than partisan reasons?  Since the primary looks to have been equally tainted by absentee fraud, starting over with a new primary would be the fairest thing to the voters of the district.

Again, isn't thede SOMETHING of a statute of limitations? There's been  no direct evidence of fraudulent primary ballots (yet), nor did Pittinger raise a challenge after losing ALMOST 6 MONTHS AGO.

Yes, I'd bet the primary was corrupted as well, but thus far nearly all evidence relates to election fraud in the general electio, after Pittinger washd his hands of the matter last summer.

[Badger]

The Dems on the NCSBE need to grow a pair and order a new election before the GOP passes their new bill forcing a new primary. The evidence is overwhelming there is no reason to drag this out further.

Why would you want that, other than partisan reasons?  Since the primary looks to have been equally tainted by absentee fraud, starting over with a new primary would be the fairest thing to the voters of the district.

Again, isn't thede SOMETHING of a statute of limitations? There's been  no direct evidence of fraudulent primary ballots (yet), nor did Pittinger raise a challenge after losing ALMOST 6 MONTHS AGO.

Yes, I'd bet the primary was corrupted as well, but thus far nearly all evidence relates to election fraud in the general electio, after Pittinger washd his hands of the matter last summer.

If we were talking about the previous election cycle, I would agree with you.  But this is part of the same (as yet uncompleted) cycle to elect a new Congressman.   I don't see how it could be considered too late to correct such an error.

Another way to look at it:

- If the current result is certified and the House seats Harris, the Democrats will reasonably feel the election was stolen.

- If the current result is certified, but the House accepts a challenge and seats McCready instead, the Republicans will reasonably feel the election was stolen.

- If the NCSBE declines to certify and calls a new general election with the same candidates, which Harris will almost certainly lose, the Republicans will again reasonably feel the election was stolen.

- If the entire tainted election is thrown out and a new election including primary is held, and conducted fairly, the losing side will likely be unhappy -- but there won't be a reasonable case for either side that the election was stolen.

I may have cast my lot with the Democrats, but I'm more interested in fairness and justice for the voters than in partisanship.

I agree with you in principle that this is the way people will react, but it doesn't really address my questions.

First off, I could not care less about what the North Carolina GOP, or the GOP in general thinks. They will blame this as an election theft regardless of how sacrosanct the new election is held. Nor, frankly, should there feelings, or anyone's feelings, govern the legitimacy and process for holding a new election.

Secondly, when Pittinger didn't raise a challenge despite it now coming out that he knew damn well the type of shenanigans coming out of Bladen County from the primary results, but apparently dropped it all out of the sake of party Unity ( and, 10 to 1 he was offered both carrot and stick inducement and threats regarding his post Congressional employment prospects if he raised a fuss, isn't it a little late now that the Republican nominee he ceded to despite obvious fraud has been caught in general election fraud?? For whatever reason he knew about the fraud and didn't follow up on it at all. What gives him even the remotest right 2 reopen the primary now? Again, it cannot be emphasized enough that all indications are he knew exactly how fraudulent the primary results out of Bladen County were and how much that could have turned the primary in his favor, and yet for unknown - - but let's face it, fairly obvious - reasons he chose not to make an issue of it.

Well, if McCready has, it doesn't give him the right to suddenly try to pull one out of the hat for the Republicans. More than anything this just seems like the North Carolina Republican parties modus operandi of trying to Short Circuit Fair democracy in their state for personal gain. And I for one oppose that.

[Badger]

Predicting it now. Will the new Congress reconvenes in a week, they refused to seat Mark Harris as the winner. Fox News acknowledges indications of possible reported fraud, maybe, but their main angle is on how the new democratic majority is already over reaching their power Etc by refusing to seat a Republican, completely not even trying to explain why not seating Harris despite the evidence of fraud is somehow overreach.

[Badger]

After all of this the GOP is still trying to rig, changing the law to force a new primary after all of this. I have no idea why Dems on the NCSBE are sitting by and allowing them a chance to win this seat after trying to steal it. Order new elections before the GOP overrides Cooper's veto.

Funnily enough, the best response to this statement of yours is another response to another statement of yours (pasted below) for which you haven't yet been able to "grow a pair" & respond back to (maybe b/c you realize that it's wrong of you to only oppose a new primary, however tainted the previous one was, for solely partisan reasons but you're too scared to admit you're wrong so you've instead doubled down on your wrongness, perhaps?).

The Dems on the NCSBE need to grow a pair and order a new election before the GOP passes their new bill forcing a new primary. The evidence is overwhelming there is no reason to drag this out further.

Why would you want that, other than partisan reasons?  Since the primary looks to have been equally tainted by absentee fraud, starting over with a new primary would be the fairest thing to the voters of the district.

Look, I get it; I'm a liberal Democrat, & I want this to be our 41st pickup just as much as the next Democrat. But Harris stole the primary just as surely as he stole the general. He had no right to the nomination. If you'd allow one fraud to stand but not the other, then not only would that be ridiculous, but it'd be just plain wrong too.

Harris belongs in jail & democracy demands a full, clean re-vote. If that would necessitate that the current law be changed, then so be it, but hey, that's what the legislative system is there for, & both the government & our democracy as a whole will be better off for having that law in place.

My computer is being worked on all day today, and I can't effectively cut and paste on my phone. However, please look at my post several above yours as to why I seriously seriously question whether or not Pittinger has any legitimate basis to challenge the primary.

 In a nutshell, there have been indications somewhere in this megathread that he knew damn well what was going on in Bladen County, and surely he and his campaign noticed the Absurd absentee ballot numbers in Harris's favor. And yet, he chose to waive any challenge. The reasons for him not doing so in the face of blatant fraud are unknown, but I can't come up with any other reasonable hypothesis other than he was given a combination of carrot and stick to shut up about it if you wanted help with his post Congressional employment prospects. Or in any rate he played the loyal party man for whatever reason. Regardless, it's irrelevant because this was known to him and he waved it six some months ago when an investigation could have been conducted while said evidence was still fresh.

I'm sorry. Yes, I have little doubt that Harris stole the primary election the same way he attempted to steal the general election. But this seems entirely like the NC GOP modus operandi of twisting every rule and amending every regulation and statute to maintain political power at all costs. Sorry Congressman. You snooze, you lose. Just because McCready effectively challenged fraudulent election returns when you chose, repeat chose not to do so six months ago doesn't give you or the GOP another bite at the Apple.

So how am I wrong here? I think my argument completely comports with the letter and the spirit of the law and doesn't rely on partisan politics for its conclusion. Genuinely interested in your take.

[Badger]

Hoyer repeats that Dems will not seat Harris. Since the House is the ultimate judge of its own membership, a court will laugh at Harris. House Admin can order a new election or theoretically even seat McCready immediately, though Pelosi will not do the latter. See IN-8 1985.

https://twitter.com/JoeBrunoWSOC9/status/1078763120863178752

As a Dem, I want the to seat McCready.

As someone who believes in fair play I want them to seat Pittenger, or leave the seat vacant until 2020.

Only on Atlas could you find someone so deluded they would think that this seat should either go to a). go the someone who lost in the primary or b). have its constituents deprived of their constitutional right to representation.

This X 10.

It's taken a while, but this is the final straw for NY Express's consistent level of utterly inane posting to finally earn him a place on the Olikwandi short list of posters I've placed on ignore, not for being aSSholes and/or racists like the others, but someone whose posts simply cause too much risk of brain damage.

[Badger]

Olikwandi short list of posters

You're missing out. The guy has gotten more and more spectacular to read over the years. He's one of Atlas' biggest competitive advantages over other sites at this point.

For those who've read Terry Pratchett's Discworld books: he reminds me a lot of the Bursar at Unseen University.  He speaks in short bursts that are usually completely random, but occasionally produces something spectacularly insightful.

Love the series. Read every single book (RIP Terry).

I've never seen anything remotely approaching "spectacularly insightful" in anything he's posted. I'll take your word for it, but stand by the assertion I'd suffer irreversible brain damage reading his usual posts waiting for such a rare gem.

[Badger]

Olikwandi short list of posters

You're missing out. The guy has gotten more and more spectacular to read over the years. He's one of Atlas' biggest competitive advantages over other sites at this point.

For those who've read Terry Pratchett's Discworld books: he reminds me a lot of the Bursar at Unseen University.  He speaks in short bursts that are usually completely random, but occasionally produces something spectacularly insightful.

Love the series. Read every single book (RIP Terry).

I've never seen anything remotely approaching "spectacularly insightful" in anything he's posted. I'll take your word for it, but stand by the assertion I'd suffer irreversible brain damage reading his usual posts waiting for such a rare gem.

I may have attempted to be too clever there.  His occasional good posts make succinct good points relevant to the topic at hand.  Like the Bursar, they're spectacularly insightful in comparison to his background level.

Gotcha. Hearing this University, he posts far far too often to remain in the background without putting him on ignore.

[Badger]

Now that the new congress is sworn in and the seat is vacant, what's stopping there from being a regular special election? This should be the procedure, right? Independent of the ongoing investigation.

The House will give the state government a chance to certify a winner before they decide whether or not to seat that person.

All that should matter is that there's currently a vacancy, right? House vacancies are resolved by special election, regardless as to why the seat is vacant. The house can't choose to not seat him because they haven't been handed a certificate.

Writ of Mandamus to certify the lawful winner of the NC-9 election.

I eat, the thief is looking for the course to certify his win regardless.

But please gym, come back at us with a wall of text talking about elections from 6 years ago that somehow disproves the literal mountain of evidence Harris committed widespread both body in this particular election.

[Badger]

Time for Pelosi and the House to chop of its head and order new elections there. This situation cannot be tolerated to last for another year or so.

What empirical evidence is there of fraud that would affect the result?

After 29 pages of details about that, if you seriously can ask that question at this point, you are obstinate, not empirical.

[Badger]

I guess it's a bit late but it seems like jim needs his own Bladen County megathread

Why old Atlas desperately needs a like function.