Congressional Special Election (last call! unstickied after NY-27 final results)

[RI]

Two different electorates tonight: NC-03 behaving like 2016. NC-09 behaving like 2018-lite.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think the biggest takeaway from both elections is that the urban/suburban vs. rural divide is likely to intensify in 2020.

I'm sure the usual suspects will continue to bury their heads in the sand though.

Yeah, we know NC is a tilt R state

[NOVA Green]

Meck precincts remaining generally overwhelmingly ED McCready--- pct 73,75,91,96,101,131,137,144,216,217,227,232.

Includes some decent sized ones, but Union and swings in the Eastern Counties likely make it not enough even if ED numbers are larger than one might imagine over EV numbers in terms of votes remaining.

Could it be so narrow that it flips after absentees?

The largest possible margin absentees/provisionals could flip is maybe 3k votes, probably less.

Thanks RI--- I was going to post something to similar effect, but then again it is NC and Provisionals, so who knows....   

Still, extremely unlikely unless there is something extremely rotten in the State of Denmark....

[Lisa's voting Biden]

If Dems can come anywhere near this close in the Presidential race in NC-09 next year, they’ll win the state easily, right?

Correct, but that's not going to happen considering these are very different elections (and electorates).

[Strudelcutie4427]

Off-topic but what happened in Dare County?

Hurricane Dorian

[Technocracy Timmy]

If Dems can come anywhere near this close in the Presidential race in NC-09 next year, they’ll win the state easily, right?

It’s the beginning of the end for Trump.

[RI]

NYT calls it for Bishop

[DrScholl]

If Dems can come anywhere near this close in the Presidential race in NC-09 next year, they’ll win the state easily, right?

Correct, but that's not going to happen considering these are very different elections (and electorates).

That district is not going to get better for Trump and will in fact get worse.

[Xing]

If Dems can come anywhere near this close in the Presidential race in NC-09 next year, they’ll win the state easily, right?

If, but let's not get ahead of ourselves...

[NOVA Green]

I should say I haven't looked at the outstanding precincts from Bladen if we are searching for extra votes, but it does look like there are two with large Black populations....

It does also look like maybe they shut down these precincts for the SE and made voters drive longer distances.... idk

[Strudelcutie4427]

If Dems can come anywhere near this close in the Presidential race in NC-09 next year, they’ll win the state easily, right?

Correct, but that's not going to happen considering these are very different elections (and electorates).

That district is not going to get better for Trump and will in fact get worse.

 
It will when we have somebody to run against. You put a Bernie or Warren and you’ll lose more bigly

[Strudelcutie4427]

I should say I haven't looked at the outstanding precincts from Bladen if we are searching for extra votes, but it does look like there are two with large Black populations....

It does also look like maybe they shut down these precincts for the SE and made voters drive longer distances.... idk

Yeah it’s always racism whenever you lose right?

[I Can Now Die Happy]

If Dems can come anywhere near this close in the Presidential race in NC-09 next year, they’ll win the state easily, right?

Correct, but that's not going to happen considering these are very different elections (and electorates).

That district is not going to get better for Trump and will in fact get worse.

 
It will when we have somebody to run against. You put a Bernie or Warren and you’ll lose more bigly

Dan McCready was a solid candidate in terms of resume, background, ideology, and funding.

Bernie, Warren, and heck many of the other Democratic Presidential contenders probably WON'T do as well as McCready.

[Brittain33]

I should say I haven't looked at the outstanding precincts from Bladen if we are searching for extra votes, but it does look like there are two with large Black populations....

It does also look like maybe they shut down these precincts for the SE and made voters drive longer distances.... idk

Yeah it’s always racism whenever you lose right?

Um, no one gets to play innocent about racist shenanigans affecting elections in North Carolina, Justice Roberts. I trust you know the record.

[IceSpear]

It's now official. McCready improves from his 2018 result in suburban Mecklenburg (Bishop's home turf!) and does roughly the same in suburban Union County. But he does worse overall due to a total collapse in the rural areas, losing two rural counties he carried in 2018 and nearly losing one he carried by 15 points (!) in 2018!

Politician, Zaybay, and everyone else who insists there will be a rural surge for the Democrats in 2020 must be reeling right now.

[Oryxslayer]

It's now official. McCready improves from his 2018 result in suburban Mecklenburg (Bishop's home turf!) and does roughly the same in suburban Union County. But he does worse overall due to a total collapse in the rural areas, losing two rural counties he carried in 2018 and nearly losing one he carried by 15 points (!) in 2018!

Politician, Zaybay, and everyone else who insists there will be a rural surge for the Democrats in 2020 must be reeling right now.

I wouldn't use Robinson as a example of anything other then Robinson politics, there is no other county quite like it in America. The Lumbee move as a bloc, and its very likely that if they gave McReady the same numbers as they did in 2018, this would be a  dem gain. Cumberland is also not a rural county. But the rest of the take  is fine.

[Technocracy Timmy]

It's now official. McCready improves from his 2018 result in suburban Mecklenburg (Bishop's home turf!) and does roughly the same in suburban Union County. But he does worse overall due to a total collapse in the rural areas, losing two rural counties he carried in 2018 and nearly losing one he carried by 15 points (!) in 2018!

Politician, Zaybay, and everyone else who insists there will be a rural surge for the Democrats in 2020 must be reeling right now.

Their poor mothers will have to fix them up the dankest plates of tendies to boost their morale back.

[I Can Now Die Happy]

It's now official. McCready improves from his 2018 result in suburban Mecklenburg (Bishop's home turf!) and does roughly the same in suburban Union County. But he does worse overall due to a total collapse in the rural areas, losing two rural counties he carried in 2018 and nearly losing one he carried by 15 points (!) in 2018!

Politician, Zaybay, and everyone else who insists there will be a rural surge for the Democrats in 2020 must be reeling right now.

There is more white liberal college educated turnout in special elections relative to the general. IMO I wouldn't read too much into this when it comes to trends. Black and native turnout is down too, which was also expected.

In general special election results aren't the best for determining trends so even if I wanna believe that rurals are even better for us, I'd hold my breath.

[DrScholl]

If Dems can come anywhere near this close in the Presidential race in NC-09 next year, they’ll win the state easily, right?

Correct, but that's not going to happen considering these are very different elections (and electorates).

That district is not going to get better for Trump and will in fact get worse.

 
It will when we have somebody to run against. You put a Bernie or Warren and you’ll lose more bigly

Dan McCready was a solid candidate in terms of resume, background, ideology, and funding.

Bernie, Warren, and heck many of the other Democratic Presidential contenders probably WON'T do as well as McCready.

LOL.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

There was no Presidential nominee carrying our message, you can take with a grain of salt. Biden isnt our savior, anyone doubting Warren, with Pete Buttigieg, as the Veep winning the rust belt, is gonna lose out, because Dems are still favored

[swf541]

It's now official. McCready improves from his 2018 result in suburban Mecklenburg (Bishop's home turf!) and does roughly the same in suburban Union County. But he does worse overall due to a total collapse in the rural areas, losing two rural counties he carried in 2018 and nearly losing one he carried by 15 points (!) in 2018!

Politician, Zaybay, and everyone else who insists there will be a rural surge for the Democrats in 2020 must be reeling right now.

Yes because as we all know all of rural America has a large Lumbee population......

[MT Treasurer]

It's now official. McCready improves from his 2018 result in suburban Mecklenburg (Bishop's home turf!) and does roughly the same in suburban Union County. But he does worse overall due to a total collapse in the rural areas, losing two rural counties he carried in 2018 and nearly losing one he carried by 15 points (!) in 2018!

Politician, Zaybay, and everyone else who insists there will be a rural surge for the Democrats in 2020 must be reeling right now.

Yes because as we all know all of rural America has a large Lumbee population......

It wasn’t just NC-09. Greg Murphy's margin in NC-03 slightly exceeded Trump's margin in 2016, if I’m not mistaken.

[NOVA Green]

I should say I haven't looked at the outstanding precincts from Bladen if we are searching for extra votes, but it does look like there are two with large Black populations....

It does also look like maybe they shut down these precincts for the SE and made voters drive longer distances.... idk

Yeah it’s always racism whenever you lose right?

SingltTxGuy not sure if you are directly calling me out or making a rhetorical point involving DEM or perceived DEM leaning avatars...

No, I do not believe that even in States of the Former Confederacy, where elected public Republican leaders have deliberately and intentionally tried to restrict voter access, especially to voters they might perceive as a higher predisposition to vote DEM (Younger Voters, Ethnic Minorities, etc) that all elections are won and lost based upon "racism".

Personally, I believe in Universal AVR and VBM, like Oregon currently does.

Unless a Postal worker steals your ballot (and some states like Cali you can "track your ballot in the mail") which will expose them to dual Federal Crimes (Stealing Mail, and Election related crimes) you have easy access to vote if you choose to.

My main opposition to how Oregon does it, if you live in remote and rural areas (making it difficult to drop your ballot off in mailbox), or paying the cost of a stamp (where do people even buy these anymore?) it does make it more difficult to vote (despite extremely high voter registration and turnout rates in Oregon).....

It's easy a SASE.   There is no reason why Federal, State, and Local Governments should not have a pre-paid envelope when we cast our ballots.

Anyways, all that aside, I don't believe in political autopsy until we have all of the data....

There are many reasons why:

1.) Turnout in an SE may have been lower in certain areas, especially for a House Election where it means little to the balance of the House where DEMs currently maintain a huge majority.

2.) Lack of Hotly contested local elections in some of the Eastern portions of the district may have decreased turnout.

3.) Also, simply put voters tend to gravitate towards higher profile elections within local media markets. It could be that voter turnout was higher in Meck & Union because of local media coverage.

4.) There are all sorts of reasons, and until we get a chance to look at precinct numbers in greater detail we're kind of shooting darts at the dartboard.

5.) I like to compare not just % swings within precincts and code them based upon a variety of Socio-Demographic characteristics, but also for Special Elections look at dramatic shifts in TO levels within precincts.

6.) Bottom line, we have a few initial data points to look at, and although "racism" in terms of NC 'Pub voter purges, and reductions of access to voting sites in rural Black and Native precincts may or may not have been a factor, it may well have been or it may well not have been.

Get your one sentence statement, but that's not me.... and political autopsy can and will discover extreme discrepancies, just like we saw recently in North Carolina.....

[IceSpear]

It's now official. McCready improves from his 2018 result in suburban Mecklenburg (Bishop's home turf!) and does roughly the same in suburban Union County. But he does worse overall due to a total collapse in the rural areas, losing two rural counties he carried in 2018 and nearly losing one he carried by 15 points (!) in 2018!

Politician, Zaybay, and everyone else who insists there will be a rural surge for the Democrats in 2020 must be reeling right now.

Yes because as we all know all of rural America has a large Lumbee population......

It wasn’t just NC-09. Greg Murphy's margin in NC-03 slightly exceeded Trump's margin in 2016, if I’m not mistaken.

Not to mention literally the exact same trend happened all across the entire country in 2016 and 2018. I mean, how much more evidence do you people want? lol

[Cuca_Beludo]

If Dems can come anywhere near this close in the Presidential race in NC-09 next year, they’ll win the state easily, right?

Correct, but that's not going to happen considering these are very different elections (and electorates).

That district is not going to get better for Trump and will in fact get worse.

 
It will when we have somebody to run against. You put a Bernie or Warren and you’ll lose more bigly

Dan McCready was a solid candidate in terms of resume, background, ideology, and funding.

Bernie, Warren, and heck many of the other Democratic Presidential contenders probably WON'T do as well as McCready.

LOL.

His comment is absolutely correct. Dan McCready was a great candidate for this district. By the way, he outspent Bishop 2,5-to-1. Lol