Pennsylvania Senate 2004: Could Casey have beaten Specter?

[Keystone Phil]

It would have certainly been possible. It would have been a very interesting race, too. I can't really say who would be favored though.

[Keystone Phil]

no, and he wont beat santorum either.

He will win against Santorum, not because of who he is & what he does, but because of who Santorum is & what he has done.

Um, right. And, as usual, you ignore the fact that before Casey got in, Santorum had decent ratings and led in matchup polls.

[Keystone Phil]

If most Pennsylvanians feel the same way, why did they vote for Kerry?

those are two separate races. cant compare a senate race with a presidential race.

santorum was reelected in 2000, while gore carried the state. (by a bigger margin than kerry)

BRTD is just being his usual dumb self. He asks that question over and over even though I've given him the answer before - PA is a partisan state when it comes to Presidential races so you really can't compare it.

[Keystone Phil]

Casey jumping in may have impacted the matchup polls, but its not going to impact if the people of the state like Santorum or not.  Santorum on the vast majority of issues is a puppet to Bush & very close to Bush, Bush's #'s in the state (and across the nation) has taken a major hit during that span as well, that has impacted Santorum's#'s.  More & more Santorum is being seen as a hard right wing GOP Party line & a Bush loyalist Sennator, that hurts bigtime.

You would think that it would just impact the matchup but it doesn't always happen like that. Look at Santorum's ratings before Casey jumped in. Kerry carried the state in November 2004 but at the same time Santorum had good approval ratings/low disapproval.

Being close to Bush does hurt Santorum, I will admit, but Bush wasn't extremely unpopular in early 2005 when Santorum started taking hits. People could also argue that the "hard right" Santorum could be seen in 2004 but look at his numbers throughout that year.

[Keystone Phil]

I was just responding to WalterMitty's claim that all Pennsylvanians agree with Santorum on social issues.

They do and the national Dems were smart enough to realize that. That's why they went with Casey. Why do you think the Casey name is popular? Casey Dems can win more easily statewide.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I honestly think a lot of it has to do with the hits he has taken with Casey as an opponent. He hasn't done anything outrageous since Casey has entered the race. It might not be seen as a logical conclusion but I do think that Casey's candidacy has to do with why Santorum's popularity has gone down.

Santorum's views are popular. Compare late 2004 Rick Santorum with mid 2005 Rick Santorum. People knew about his controversial comments back in 2004 and he was popular with low disapproval. 2005 Rick Santorum was suddenly an unpopular guy. His views didn't go any further to the right so you can't use his ideology against him. The reason why he has gone down is because of Casey and, to an extent, his closeness to the President.

[Keystone Phil]

Santorum was reelected because liberal Dems split the primary with Allyson Schwartz in 2nd and Ron Klink was a populist dud who wasn't worth sh**t yet came in 1st because of the liberal split.  That's why Santorum won.

Do you really think people paid that close of attention to that primary? Do you think that in a Presidential election year people stayed home because of who won the Senate primary? Do you think they voted for Santorum over Klink just because a liberal wasn't nominated? Sure, people could have skipped the office but that doesn't make up for the large Santorum margin of victory. People liked him so just accept it.

[Keystone Phil]

Santorum was reelected because liberal Dems split the primary with Allyson Schwartz in 2nd and Ron Klink was a populist dud who wasn't worth sh**t yet came in 1st because of the liberal split.  That's why Santorum won.

Do you really think people paid that close of attention to that primary? Do you think that in a Presidential election year people stayed home because of who won the Senate primary? Do you think they voted for Santorum over Klink just because a liberal wasn't nominated? Sure, people could have skipped the office but that doesn't make up for the large Santorum margin of victory. People liked him so just accept it.

In his last bid Santorum was viewed as your average Republican, a right of center, but not far right Republican.  Now he is viewed as a far right Republican.  That has played a major role in his decline.

Ok but we're not talking about right now. All I was saying is Flyers' reasoning is off, in my opinion.

[Keystone Phil]

His reasoning might be off a bit, but I think what he might be trying to get at is some people may have voted against Klink because of how angry they were with the Primary situation and may not have particular been fond of Klink.  Thats what I was getting at with my Santorum not being viewed as the far right candidate he is seen as now back then.  because of the resentment you may have seen more of a split ticket voting between Gore/ Santorum than you otherwise would have especially in suburban Philly where both Gore & Santorum did quite well.

Liberals are going to vote for Santorum over Klink just because of the primary? You are delusional. If they're that serious about liberalism, they'd never vote for Santorum, regardless of whether he was a "far right winger" or just a conservative. People don't vote for someone of a totally opposite ideology just because of a failed primary candidate, fool. 

[Keystone Phil]

Since that election, the crap out of his mouth has hurt him and his approvals started to tank after the DN and Inquirer pummeled him.

They went after him after the gay comments and his approval rating stayed the same. There were many times when you'd have people believe that he was hated statewide when his ratings were better than Specter's and Rendell's.

[Keystone Phil]

If you think Santorum is well liked in PA, you're delusional.  Overall, this is a left-of-center state and you know full well his views fit Utah or Alabama better.

He most certainly was well liked in this state when you were saying he was hated (2004). This is not a left of center state either. If it was, you'd win statewide offices easier. I won't even bother bringing up other races because you'll cry, as always, about "Johnnymandering."

[Keystone Phil]

Then why are a lot of State House and Senate seats that are vulnerable and open Dem favored?  We have the 152nd and 170th, which is a hop skip and jump from our houses, both likely to flip to the Dems.  You also have the 6th Congressional, which was custom made for Jim Gerlach, almost a certain flip.  The 8th Congressional is very likely even against a popular incumbent and now even the 7th against a very entrenched incumbent.

That's SE PA, not the whole state. If you have to look to gains around here as a sign that PA is "center left" then you are really pathetic.

[Keystone Phil]

Taking the entire state into consideration I would say PA as a whole is slightly left of center.  The hard left shift in the Philly burbs pushed it as a hole from dead center to slightly left of center.  I don't know if I would say center-left, but it is slightly left of center.

Hack,

SE PA is not "hard left." Secondly, without SE PA, this state is not "dead center." If anything, PA is slightly right of center. You're so delusional.

[Keystone Phil]

Taking the entire state into consideration I would say PA as a whole is slightly left of center.  The hard left shift in the Philly burbs pushed it as a hole from dead center to slightly left of center.  I don't know if I would say center-left, but it is slightly left of center.

Hack,

SE PA is not "hard left." Secondly, without SE PA, this state is not "dead center." If anything, PA is slightly right of center. You're so delusional.

Southeast Penn is not hard left, but the suburbs did take a turn left over the past 20 years.  I meant to say left of center.  Bit of a semantic gaffe on my part.  Even Cook and Sabato say we're left of center, probably about -2 econ, 0 social.  The Southeast leftward shift is also countered by the Pittsburgh area's rightward shift with economic liberals and union people leaving the area and the new basis of their economy being finance, technology, and medical.

The SE is not nearly populated enough to give the whole state a dead center social rating. I guess we just won't agree on this point.

[Keystone Phil]

The center part of the state is just not as conservative as everyone thinks save South Central PA.  Kerry did much better in the "T" than the non-black areas of Mississippi and Alabama.  I also don't think Northeastern PA is socially conservative at all, but it's not Berkeley either.  I would say a dead center social rating is warranted for PA considering the fact it's more pro-choice than the national average, a smidge more pro-gun, and slightly left on gay marriage/civil unions.  I would even go as far as a -0.5 social PC score which is a razor thin margin left of center. 

The NE isn't socially conservative at all? Are you kidding? We're slightly left on gay issues? You are crazy!

[Keystone Phil]

When I have time I'll pull the numbers, but most polls show that. 

What polls show breakdown on issues like that aside from Quinnipiac?