TIPP: MI - Biden +13, FL - Biden +11 (user search)
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  TIPP: MI - Biden +13, FL - Biden +11 (search mode)
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Author Topic: TIPP: MI - Biden +13, FL - Biden +11  (Read 4329 times)
SingingAnalyst
mathstatman
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« on: June 16, 2020, 07:56:05 AM »

+11 in Michigan... +11 in Florida? Lol. Ok.
The margin of error with a sample of 900 is about 3.3%, so presumably a different sample at the same time could have had MI Biden+16 and FL Biden +5.
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SingingAnalyst
mathstatman
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Posts: 3,637
United States


« Reply #1 on: June 16, 2020, 08:18:44 AM »


Florida is not "Lean R" *right now*. There hasn't been a poll there with Trump in the lead since the beginning of March. To claim its anything besides a tossup is just delusional.
I’m not basing it off right now, I’m basing it off what is most likely to occur on 11/3.  On 11/3 Florida will be a Lean R state.

But why do you believe that to be true?  Trump is clearly behind in Florida right now, so what do you think is going to change between now and Election Day?  Please provide some specific reasoning, and not just intuition or feelings.


His feelings don't care about your facts.

And yes, I think it's safe to say Buzz is the new SN now.
The only justification for believing FL will stay R on 11/3 is that Trump polls low. But Trump is now a known quantity, and will not poll as low this year as in 2016. FL will be close, perhaps very close, but I think Biden wins it.
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