TIPP: MI - Biden +13, FL - Biden +11

[Buzz]

FL -> Lean R
MI -> Lean D

Florida is not "Lean R" *right now*. There hasn't been a poll there with Trump in the lead since the beginning of March. To claim its anything besides a tossup is just delusional.

I’m not basing it off right now, I’m basing it off what is most likely to occur on 11/3.  On 11/3 Florida will be a Lean R state.

Based on what?

common sense approach with the state and actually understanding people instead of numbers.

[Buzz]

FL -> Lean R
MI -> Lean D

I don’t even have Trump winning the election as of now.  Some of y’all just need to get a reality check for some of these states. 
Florida is not "Lean R" *right now*. There hasn't been a poll there with Trump in the lead since the beginning of March. To claim its anything besides a tossup is just delusional.

I’m not basing it off right now, I’m basing it off what is most likely to occur on 11/3.  On 11/3 Florida will be a Lean R state.

But why do you believe that to be true?  Trump is clearly behind in Florida right now, so what do you think is going to change between now and Election Day?  Please provide some specific reasoning, and not just intuition or feelings.

His feelings don't care about your facts.

And yes, I think it's safe to say Buzz is the new SN now.

[Nyvin]

FL -> Lean R
MI -> Lean D

Florida is not "Lean R" *right now*. There hasn't been a poll there with Trump in the lead since the beginning of March. To claim its anything besides a tossup is just delusional.

I’m not basing it off right now, I’m basing it off what is most likely to occur on 11/3.  On 11/3 Florida will be a Lean R state.

Based on what?

common sense approach with the state and actually understanding people instead of numbers.

How do you understand 21 million people?   The common sense approach would be to look at the polls, look at the state's past voting history, and compare them to the national environment.

This is what political scientist do all the time,  there's people that research this stuff heavily and it's the reason why these polls are out there. 

[Sbane]

FL -> Lean R
MI -> Lean D

Florida is not "Lean R" *right now*. There hasn't been a poll there with Trump in the lead since the beginning of March. To claim its anything besides a tossup is just delusional.

I’m not basing it off right now, I’m basing it off what is most likely to occur on 11/3.  On 11/3 Florida will be a Lean R state.

Based on what?

common sense approach with the state and actually understanding people instead of numbers.

Ah yes, "common sense". The GOP has fallen so far. Truly the uneducated party now. 

[Brittain33]

I’ve never posted this before, but:

NUT

[Sir Mohamed]

MI is believeable, but Biden ahead by double digits in FL is weird. Biden would for sure win the state if the election was held today.

[South Dakota Democrat]

I very much doubt this would be the final margin in Florida (just saying very much doubt to be safe...really, it's impossible).  However, if the CNN Biden +14 poll was true, it would make sense, as Florida would be around R+3 and show an 11 point Biden margin.  Even if Biden won nationally by that much, though, I still think Florida would be far closer than this.

[South Dakota Democrat]

FL -> Lean R
MI -> Lean D

Florida is not "Lean R" *right now*. There hasn't been a poll there with Trump in the lead since the beginning of March. To claim its anything besides a tossup is just delusional.

Well, there's been ONE.  But we do not speak of it. 

The Poll That Must Not Be Named

[South Dakota Democrat]

FL -> Lean R
MI -> Lean D

Florida is not "Lean R" *right now*. There hasn't been a poll there with Trump in the lead since the beginning of March. To claim its anything besides a tossup is just delusional.

I’m not basing it off right now, I’m basing it off what is most likely to occur on 11/3.  On 11/3 Florida will be a Lean R state.

Based on what?

common sense approach with the state and actually understanding people instead of numbers.

So you're an expert on Florida now?

[lfromnj]

Michigan poll is junk
54% was college educated and only 18% have never been to college.
Florida is too
Almost 60% educated

Lmao are people actually taking these polls seriously because 538 said A/b?
Its just like Marist had a A+ lmao.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Michigan poll is junk
54% was college educated and only 18% have never been to college.
Florida is too
Almost 60% educated

Lmao are people actually taking these polls seriously because 538 said A/b?
Its just like Marist had a A+ lmao.

Good points. What would be the results if they were weighted properly by education?

[Gustaf]

I know people meme a lot but Trump won Florida by a point more than he won Michigan by. These polls would suggest a slight trend to D for Michigan compared to Florida.

[tagimaucia]

Michigan poll is junk
54% was college educated and only 18% have never been to college.
Florida is too
Almost 60% educated

Lmao are people actually taking these polls seriously because 538 said A/b?
Its just like Marist had a A+ lmao.

Good points. What would be the results if they were weighted properly by education?

My quick back of the envelope calculation suggests that MI would be way closer (All the way down to Biden+3 I think? but Florida would still be like Biden +9 if weighted properly because their no college sample is still pro Biden and not *that* different from their College educated samples)

[lfromnj]

Michigan poll is junk
54% was college educated and only 18% have never been to college.
Florida is too
Almost 60% educated

Lmao are people actually taking these polls seriously because 538 said A/b?
Its just like Marist had a A+ lmao.

Good points. What would be the results if they were weighted properly by education?

My quick back of the envelope calculation suggests that MI would be way closer (All the way down to Biden+3 I think? but Florida would still be like Biden +9 if weighted properly because their no college sample is still pro Biden and not *that* different from their College educated samples)

I went overboard on the florida one but yeah Michigan is junk, Im still suspicious of the Florida poll due to how off one major part of the electorate is, even if that won't make a huge difference but just incredible that pollsters still refuse to weight by education, listen to Marquette folks !

Marquette 2016 - Clinton +6 WI, polls were off blah blah polling error,  nothing else could be wrong, Trump just got lucky in 2016.
Marquette saw why they were wrong and accordingly adjusted in 2018 for a nearly perfect spread of both races !.

[The Mikado]

Florida is Safe Tossup.

[emailking]

FL -> Lean R
MI -> Lean D

Florida is not "Lean R" *right now*. There hasn't been a poll there with Trump in the lead since the beginning of March. To claim its anything besides a tossup is just delusional.

I’m not basing it off right now, I’m basing it off what is most likely to occur on 11/3.  On 11/3 Florida will be a Lean R state.

On 11/3 it's not a lean anything. There will be a winner.

[BobbieMac]

Curiously, if you put the controversial CNN Biden +14 poll into UNS you get

Michigan - Biden +11.7
Florida - Biden +11

Just sayin

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Michigan poll is junk
54% was college educated and only 18% have never been to college.
Florida is too
Almost 60% educated

Lmao are people actually taking these polls seriously because 538 said A/b?
Its just like Marist had a A+ lmao.

Michigan exit polls in 2016 showed 20% of voters had high school or less education.
Considering the share of the national population earning a bachelor’s degree increases by 1% every 2-3 years, 18% high school or less education in 2020 seems just about right.

At the upper end, the poll showed 16% of Michigan voters with graduate degrees, compared with 15% in 2016 exit polls.

https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls/michigan/president

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I guess I was wrong PR community want their statehood , in FL

[tagimaucia]

Michigan poll is junk
54% was college educated and only 18% have never been to college.
Florida is too
Almost 60% educated

Lmao are people actually taking these polls seriously because 538 said A/b?
Its just like Marist had a A+ lmao.

Michigan exit polls in 2016 showed 20% of voters had high school or less education.
Considering the share of the national population earning a bachelor’s degree increases by 1% every 2-3 years, 18% high school or less education in 2020 seems just about right.

At the upper end, the poll showed 16% of Michigan voters with graduate degrees, compared with 15% in 2016 exit polls.

https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls/michigan/president

Smart data people (the ones I'm thinking about are mostly Democratic consultants) have been pretty much screaming or a while that the education breakdowns in exit polls are not reliable and heavily overestimate college educated voters and more educated voters generally.  I assume they know what they're talking about.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Flint water crisis shortchanged Hilary in 2016 and Gary Johnson spoiled things for Hilary. Synder wasnt a hard right conservative either. Things are looking good for Ds in WI, PA and MI

[lfromnj]

Michigan poll is junk
54% was college educated and only 18% have never been to college.
Florida is too
Almost 60% educated

Lmao are people actually taking these polls seriously because 538 said A/b?
Its just like Marist had a A+ lmao.

Michigan exit polls in 2016 showed 20% of voters had high school or less education.
Considering the share of the national population earning a bachelor’s degree increases by 1% every 2-3 years, 18% high school or less education in 2020 seems just about right.

At the upper end, the poll showed 16% of Michigan voters with graduate degrees, compared with 15% in 2016 exit polls.

https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls/michigan/president

Smart data people (the ones I'm thinking about are mostly Democratic consultants) have been pretty much screaming or a while that the education breakdowns in exit polls are not reliable and heavily overestimate college educated voters and more educated voters generally.  I assume they know what they're talking about.

I think the 2018 exit polls look more reasonable for education for CNN. Probably still a bias but not so bad.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Michigan poll is junk
54% was college educated and only 18% have never been to college.
Florida is too
Almost 60% educated

Lmao are people actually taking these polls seriously because 538 said A/b?
Its just like Marist had a A+ lmao.

Michigan exit polls in 2016 showed 20% of voters had high school or less education.
Considering the share of the national population earning a bachelor’s degree increases by 1% every 2-3 years, 18% high school or less education in 2020 seems just about right.

At the upper end, the poll showed 16% of Michigan voters with graduate degrees, compared with 15% in 2016 exit polls.

https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls/michigan/president

Smart data people (the ones I'm thinking about are mostly Democratic consultants) have been pretty much screaming or a while that the education breakdowns in exit polls are not reliable and heavily overestimate college educated voters and more educated voters generally.  I assume they know what they're talking about.

I think the 2018 exit polls look more reasonable for education for CNN. Probably still a bias but not so bad.

Why would you use midterm exit polls as an estimate for presidential turnout?

This was 22% HS or less in Michigan, FWIW.

The differences across education aren’t so great that changing one group by 4% would change the bottom line by more than a point.  Trump only won HS or less voters in MI by 3% in 2016 anyway.

[2016]

Let's go back to the last time the margin of victory in Florida was 6.0+ points: 1988.  

That election, HW Bush prevailed over Dukakis 60.87 - 38.51 (a margin of +22.36). Dukakis only won a single county (Gadsden) by around 350 votes out of 12,000.  

That election, Florida voted a whole fourteen points to the right of the nation!

I predicted White Evangelicals would abandon Trump. That Prediction doesn't seem too far fetched now otherwise Trump wouldn't be down 11 in Florida because that means Biden is even leading in the Panhandle.

We're looking at a 1988 landslide Biden win November right now.

[President Johnson]

Uncle Joe up eleven in Florida? Uhm, no.