Israel General Discussion: Annus Horribilis

[Red Velvet]

https://twitter.com/QudsNen/status/1673391405715079168

[afleitch]

https://twitter.com/QudsNen/status/1673391405715079168

He's needs help.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Why can't we just get along?

Christians vs Jews

https://www.instagram.com/reel/Cu_TM96ICbI/

Turns out, people have been getting tense with each other in these lands for thousands of years.

Here's to many more thousands.

[PSOL]

https://twitter.com/QudsNen/status/1673391405715079168

He's needs help.

He’s on the cusp of victory, why would he do that.

[Mike88]

The first poll after the start of the Israeli-Hamas war:

Lazar poll for Maariv newspaper:

41 National Unity (+12)
19 Likud (-9)
15 Yesh Atid (-1)
  7 Shas (-3)
  7 UTJ (nc)
  6 YB (nc)
  6 Meretz (+2)
  5 Ra'am (nc)
  5 Hadash (nc)
  5 Otzma Yehudit (+1)
  4 Mafdal–RZP (-2)

Poll conducted between 11 and 12 October 2023. Polled 600 voters. MoE of 4.00%.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

lol. lmao even.

[CumbrianLefty]

Well, that's him told.

Initial predictions that everybody would rally round Bibi because of this were wide of the mark. Is it not impossible that something similar is happening in Gaza?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Well, that's him told.

Initial predictions that everybody would rally round Bibi because of this were wide of the mark.Is it not impossible that something similar is happening in Gaza?

This is an encouraging sign, but (as with his previous electoral defeats) it’s way too early to call time on his career.

Putin’s popularity has also gone up and down over the course of the war. If Israel achieves something Netanyahu can sell as victory, or if its population is brutalised by a months-long conflict in which he remains at the helm, it seems possible he comes out on top.

This is why the unity government is a trap option - if he is to serve in one, he must not do so as its premier.

[Intell]

Well, that's him told.

Initial predictions that everybody would rally round Bibi because of this were wide of the mark.Is it not impossible that something similar is happening in Gaza?

This is an encouraging sign, but (as with his previous electoral defeats) it’s way too early to call time on his career.

Putin’s popularity has also gone up and down over the course of the war. If Israel achieves something Netanyahu can sell as victory, or if its population is brutalised by a months-long conflict in which he remains at the helm, it seems possible he comes out on top.

This is why the unity government is a trap option - if he is to serve in one, he must not do so as its premier.

Didn't the fall out from the Yom Kippur War result in gains for the right. I think Israeli politics works different especially when there was a massive security failure (which Netenahyu prides him self)

[Mike88]

Well, that's him told.

Initial predictions that everybody would rally round Bibi because of this were wide of the mark.Is it not impossible that something similar is happening in Gaza?

This is an encouraging sign, but (as with his previous electoral defeats) it’s way too early to call time on his career.

Putin’s popularity has also gone up and down over the course of the war. If Israel achieves something Netanyahu can sell as victory, or if its population is brutalised by a months-long conflict in which he remains at the helm, it seems possible he comes out on top.

This is why the unity government is a trap option - if he is to serve in one, he must not do so as its premier.

Didn't the fall out from the Yom Kippur War result in gains for the right. I think Israeli politics works different especially when there was a massive security failure (which Netenahyu prides him self)

There's a lot of interviews with people on the street blaming Netenahyu for the security failure, that Egypt warn him and that he neglected it. I've seen many of them in the coverage of the war.

[Silent Hunter]

Didn't the fall out from the Yom Kippur War result in gains for the right. I think Israeli politics works different especially when there was a massive security failure (which Netenahyu prides him self)

Meir's party won the next elections, but her coalition partners lost seats and she couldn't form a government.

[Aurelius2]

Very early, but seems the Israeli public sees the situation with Gantz and Lapid similarly to the take I posted yesterday.

[Progressive Pessimist]

The first poll after the start of the Israeli-Hamas war:

Lazar poll for Maariv newspaper:

41 National Unity (+12)
19 Likud (-9)
15 Yesh Atid (-1)
  7 Shas (-3)
  7 UTJ (nc)
  6 YB (nc)
  6 Meretz (+2)
  5 Ra'am (nc)
  5 Hadash (nc)
  5 Otzma Yehudit (+1)
  4 Mafdal–RZP (-2)

Poll conducted between 11 and 12 October 2023. Polled 600 voters. MoE of 4.00%.

Good. Maybe the one positive consequence of this nightmare

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

National Unity-Yesh Atid-YB has a majority on these numbers and would actually be an ideologically coherent coalition. Remarkable.

[DavidB.]

National Unity-Yesh Atid-YB has a majority on these numbers and round actually be an ideologically coherent coalition. Remarkable.

And it makes sense. It's a choice for unity, competency and national security over corruption and ideological projects. The pundits who will undoubtedly interpret it as the Israeli population swinging towards the left will be wrong, though.

[Aurelius2]

Liberman has announced he is joining the emergency government. None of his party members are joining the narrow war cabinet, but he will join the security cabinet and another member will join the broader general cabinet.

Lapid still says he will not join.

[WalterWhite]

Netanyahu looks toast next election. Hopefully, Likud will be out of business permanently after the next election.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

National Unity-Yesh Atid-YB has a majority on these numbers and would actually be an ideologically coherent coalition. Remarkable.

And it makes sense. It's a choice for unity, competency and national security over corruption and ideological projects. The pundits who will undoubtedly interpret it as the Israeli population swinging towards the left will be wrong, though.

Oh, of course this would still be a substantively center-right government, arguably more than merely "center-"right on The Security Issue (especially after this war). But it's still a sea change from "are you fer or agin' Bibi? If you're agin' him your only hope is to join this 60-59 coalition with one especially principled Islamist abstaining, no matter what else you believe."

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Liberman has announced he is joining the emergency government. None of his party members are joining the narrow war cabinet, but he will join the security cabinet and another member will join the broader general cabinet.

Lapid still says he will not join.

Seems to be quite a bizarre situation with Lieberman. Netanyahu said he was joining the cabinet, but now Lieberman has denied any agreement was made? So one of them is straight out lying.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

The first poll after the start of the Israeli-Hamas war:

Lazar poll for Maariv newspaper:

41 National Unity (+12)
19 Likud (-9)
15 Yesh Atid (-1)
  7 Shas (-3)
  7 UTJ (nc)
  6 YB (nc)
  6 Meretz (+2)
  5 Ra'am (nc)
  5 Hadash (nc)
  5 Otzma Yehudit (+1)
  4 Mafdal–RZP (-2)

Poll conducted between 11 and 12 October 2023. Polled 600 voters. MoE of 4.00%.

Is Labor dead?

[Aurelius2]

The first poll after the start of the Israeli-Hamas war:

Lazar poll for Maariv newspaper:

41 National Unity (+12)
19 Likud (-9)
15 Yesh Atid (-1)
  7 Shas (-3)
  7 UTJ (nc)
  6 YB (nc)
  6 Meretz (+2)
  5 Ra'am (nc)
  5 Hadash (nc)
  5 Otzma Yehudit (+1)
  4 Mafdal–RZP (-2)

Poll conducted between 11 and 12 October 2023. Polled 600 voters. MoE of 4.00%.

Is Labor dead?

They've been on life support for awhile now. I looked at the news report linked and they're at 1.3% in the poll, which is below the threshold so they would get no representation. Seems Meretz has bitten off part of their vote share here.

[CumbrianLefty]

They did fall out of parliament and then have a bit of a revival, but this looks worse if anything.

[Logical]

Yair Golan's heroism during the attack has also boosted Meretz's numbers. I think it's very likely Labor and Meretz will run together in the next election under General Golan.

[KaiserDave]

Yair Golan's heroism during the attack has also boosted Meretz's numbers. I think it's very likely Labor and Meretz will run together in the next election under General Golan.

Which I will heartily support, especially now that Odeh has retired.

[Aurelius2]

Lazar/Maariv have done another poll. Results are basically identical to their poll last week.