Chile Constitutional Referendum, September 4th 2022

[H. Ross Peron]

How much will the Christian Democrats cooperate with Boric?

[kaoras]

How much will the Christian Democrats cooperate with Boric?

We will know tomorrow because they have internal elections!. There are 2 lists that want to cooperate with Boric (one led by La Granja mayor Felipe Delpin and another by former youth wing leader Diego Calderon) and one that wants to be "constructive opposition" (led by Johanna Perez of the conservative wing)

[kaoras]

DC internal elections:

https://twitter.com/DcNueva/status/1485410453266350081

List 1 is led by Felipe Delpin (leftist faction), List 2 is led by Johanna Perez (conservative faction) and List 3 is Diego Calderon's (former youth wing leader).

There will be a runoff between Delpin and Perez. In theory, Calderon support should flow to Delpin since both of them are full for change and refundation with new ideas and whatever and both are very pro-Boric. But Perez list is already courting Calderon and I honestly don't know about DC internal politics to be able to tell where will this go.

[kaoras]

Well, apparently the Socialismo Democrático name will stick, it's catching on on the press and they even have a wikipedia page:https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Socialismo_Democr%C3%A1tico_(Chile)

I'm resalting this because 1) I still find it funny that the liberals seem to be fine with a name like that and 2) This is like the first time in over 20 years since a semi-relevant coalition used ideological descriptors in their name instead of generic nonsense. The last ones were the communist's coalitions in the '90s that usually had "left" in their name.

[Lumine]

Forgot to comment on the Cabinet, found it surprisingly decent, and cleverly devoid from most of the figures that one would predict to burn out early or say something stupid (see: Depolo, Lagos, Sanhueza, and so on). Also clever positioning of Marcel, Jackson, Vallejos and Fernandez. If anything, the only one I found problematic was Nicolás Grau, and that's mostly my impression of him being incompetent rather than mere ideological aversion.

Having said all that, really looking forward to see how Siches handles security issues as long as that brief remains in her power, even if it's obvious the eventual vice-minister will handle those affairs directly. It's been speculated a lot that mistakes on that front could sink her earlier than expected given how unsuccessful Interior Ministers have been in the last decade and a half.

There will be a runoff between Delpin and Perez. In theory, Calderon support should flow to Delpin since both of them are full for change and refundation with new ideas and whatever and both are very pro-Boric. But Perez list is already courting Calderon and I honestly don't know about DC internal politics to be able to tell where will this go.

If I remember correctly, Calderon is one of those who'd quite happily force the DC to drop the act and finally declare themselves firmly center-left (which is ultimately what they mostly are, memes aside), so I can't see him aligning himself with Pérez. I could be wrong as Calderon was apparently about as nakedly ambitious as it gets in student politics, but Peréz's list really doesn't suit his ideological profile.

Well, apparently the Socialismo Democrático name will stick, it's catching on on the press and they even have a wikipedia page:https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Socialismo_Democr%C3%A1tico_(Chile)

I'm resalting this because 1) I still find it funny that the liberals seem to be fine with a name like that and 2) This is like the first time in over 20 years since a semi-relevant coalition used ideological descriptors in their name instead of generic nonsense. The last ones were the communist's coalitions in the '90s that usually had "left" in their name.

It is rather odd, but it is indeed a welcome change from the mostly vapid coalition names we've seen recently (and undoubtedly a vast improvement from Convergencia Progresista, Unidad Constituyente and Nuevo Pacto Social). I don't find the Liberals being okay with it strange though. They make a lot of noise about their supposed identity, but if Ominami hadn't taken the PRO name, being a "Progressive Party" would fit them a lot better.

There is, however, a wonderful irony in the PL leaving their coalition because it had allied with the Communists only to return home now that their former allies are in power. Not a bad move, but ironic.

[Velasco]

It's amazing to see that less rhan 10k voted in the first round of the DC leadership contest.

Forgot to comment on the Cabinet, found it surprisingly decent, and cleverly devoid from most of the figures that one would predict to burn out early or say something stupid (see: Depolo, Lagos, Sanhueza, and so on). Also clever positioning of Marcel, Jackson, Vallejos and Fernandez. If anything, the only one I found problematic was Nicolás Grau, and that's mostly my impression of him being incompetent rather than mere ideological aversion.

Having said all that, really looking forward to see how Siches handles security issues as long as that brief remains in her power, even if it's obvious the eventual vice-minister will handle those affairs directly. It's been speculated a lot that mistakes on that front could sink her earlier than expected given how unsuccessful Interior Ministers have been in the last decade and a half.

Friom what I watched past weekend (mostly analysts in CNN Chile), the cabinet looks very promising on paper. Besides the young figures (Siches, Jackson, Vallejos) and high profile veterans like Marcel*, the sppointments broaden the presidential coalition in two ways: the incorporation of independents from the "civil society " like Siches herself is not less important than the addition of "Socialismo Democrático". It is very reflective of the coalition that allowed Boric to win the second round. The appointments also fulfill the promise to create a "feminist government ", cabinet members are well prepared and Boric gave them the following advice: "listen twice the time you speak". They are all positive signs, in my opinion

While Izkia Siches faces a big challenge in her new position, Giorgio Jackson will have to handle with the Congress. AD + SD are lacking a majority in the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate promises to be very tough

Second tier appointments pending

*Marcel is an independent close to the PS not loved by everyone in the left, but his prestige as economist is undisputed. He resigns as Central Bank chairman

Fascinating new era to watch

[kaoras]

I put a lot of effort into this one so enjoy

 _{left click to enlarge}

Maule, just like O’Higgins, is an agricultural region that had been a leftist stronghold since 1990. However, it underwent an abrupt shift to the right in 2017 that has stuck up and down ballot. Kast won the region, with 51,1% the first time the right wing candidate won Maule without winning nationwide since 1952. Boric won those under 30 but by smaller margins than elsewhere while Kast dominated all other age groups without a significant gender gap.



The traditional divide between the more prosperous, industrial and left leaning Northen Maule and the traditional, poorer and right leaning Southern Maule emerged once more, but with the left greatly reduced. Boric victories were concentrated north of the Maule river but fell way short of the sweep that Frei managed in 2009. The comunas Boric won are, very broadly speaking, more urban, industrial and prosperous, many of them winegrowing. His best comuna was Molina (58%), home of many big wine companies and other big agricultural enterprises, followed by Licantén (56,8%) and Hualañe (56,5%) that have pulp mills. Boric also won urban areas like Curicó and Talca. Regional capital Talca has a really old trend against the left (dates back from 2005) and while Boric won with 54%, for the first time ever it voted to the right of the country. Another urban area with a very long trend away from the left is Constitución, which has many polluting industries and was carried by Boric narrowly  51,7%.



Kast was particularly strong in Southern Maule, especially in Cauquenes province in the southern end, where he got 2/3 of the vote. Kast's best results were in Empedrado with 73,6%. All of the territory of Empedrado was completely burned in the 2017 forest fires, which Bachelet government was perceived to have handled poorly, and since then they have been uber-right wing (before that they were right leaning but not that overwhelming so). He also won the traditionally right wing cities of Cauquenes and Linares, Kast was very strong in the traditionally conservative Southern Maule,  but he also did very well in the center of the province that usually leaned to the left. From what I had been able to gather, those comunas have a fairly strong “Huaso” identity and may have felt threatened by Boric and FA outlook and stances against the traditional rodeo. Kast also won comunas in Northen Maule that had been trending left. Romeral, Teno and Vichulquen had voted Lavín in 1999 but Frei in 2009 and now went solidly for him with 54-55%.


_{Swing to Boric from 2017, stronger brown shade is stronger swing, blue is swing against him}

I did a lot of research and calculation to understand the leftist collapse in Maule. From 2017, Boric recovered most ground in urban areas (save for Cauquenes) and broadly speaking in wine and fruit growing comunas and in Colbún, where he had a notably strong local campaign. Is harder to extrapolate his underperformances, some of them were leftists areas such as Curepto and Sagrada Familia (which Guillier held in 2017) while others are more traditionally rural and right wing. He did worse than Guillier in Pelluhue, Chanco, Pencahue and Rauco. At first sight they don’t have many things in common. Pelluhue calls itself “tierra huasa”; Chanco has forest plantations, Pencahue is touristy and Rauco very agricultural.


_{Stronger shade means higher vote retention for the left, 2021 vs 2009}

The pattern is a bit more clear if we compare from 2009, which was arguably the peak left performance in the region. The left has held better in the urban and most populated areas, while losing a lot of ground in the centre of the region and in the more agricultural and rural comunas.

Turnout jumped almost 10% to 55% and here we see many places where the turnout jump actually favored Kast. Boric went backwards or failed to improve from the overall left vote in most of southern Maule, even if he increased in raw votes.

[kaoras]

Ñuble

Ñuble is one of the regions with the highest participation of forestry as % of the GDP. This is a key date since it is clear that Boric and the left overall has collapsed in areas dependent on forestry, as a backlash of the Mapuche Conflict. Forest plantations and workers are constantly attacked in fire attacks and the left opposition to a military answer has made all these areas trend heavily to the right.



Boric only won men under 30, with all the rest of the age groups going Kast, who hit 70% among men over 70. The region was also the only Kast sweep nationwide. The region barely swung 1% to the left compared to 2017, with Boric advancing modestly in urban areas such as Chillán-Chillán Viejo and going even further backward in many rural comunas.



Kast did better in the western part of the region, which are heavily rural, with a mix of traditional agriculture and forestry, with the exception of the touristy Pinto, one of the comunas that have never supported the left in a runoff (not even on the 2013 landslide). Boric did somewhat better in the eastern part of the region, closer to the coast, which has traditionally been more left wing. However, this area is home to one of the Guillier-Kast comunas, Quirihue, whose main industry is forestry and went from 52% Guillier to 53% Kast. Boric did somewhat better in the regional capital conurbation of Chillán and Chillán Viejo, which has always been somewhat conservative but is now one of his best results thanks to the left collapse in the rural areas of the center-south. Boric's best result was Yungay which he almost won with 49,5%. Yungay had the highest Parisi percentage in the first round but lost his status as a bellwether by voting significantly different from the national average for the first time.

Turnout jumped 9%, mainly to the benefit of Kast. Boric only improved 3% from the left first round share, while Kast jumped over 9% from the right share.

[kaoras]

Sorry for no updates, but summer holidays aren't exactly the most productive time of the year. Still, here is BioBío



Biobío was once one of the quintessential left wings regions of Chile, especially the “new” Biobío after being stripped of Ñuble. Until 1973 the left didn’t excel in the large urban centers of the country, but Concepción and its metro, which to this day are home to many industries were the exceptions. The coal miners of Arauco gave the left their best nationwide results in 1970 and in the 90’s. However, as I have noted, the region has one of the oldest trends against the left and Boric will be the first left-wing president ever to win without carrying BioBío.

The age data is very curious. Boric behaves like an U, with his best groups being women under 30 and men over 70. In addition to his strength with the youth (which was far more muted here) it seems that the retired old workers and miners still vote like in the old days.



The map looks almost like a U.S. state. Boric won almost all of metro Concepción except for San Pedro de la Paz but his margin wasn’t enough to offset the Kast landslides in Arauco province and especially in the interior (Biobío Province).

In the Gran Concepción, Boric was strongest in the poorer peripheric comunas of Hualpén (56%), Chiguayante (56%) and Penco (59%, only comuna won by Guillier in 2017). Boric won Coronel and Lota with around 55% of the vote, which are part of the Arauco coal basin and are ancestrally left wing areas. Those comunas voted for the right for the first time ever in 2017 and while Boric managed to carry them his results are still far from the +70% that the left used to get here. Boric also won narrowly downtown Concepción (52%) and Talcahuano (52%), an industrial port home of steel mills. (You can clearly see the malaise here if you compare it with San Antonio in Valparaíso where Boric got 70%). He also won with similar margins in the small towns close to the metro area that were traditionally left wing such as Tomé, San Rosendo and Hualqui. Kast managed to squeak by in San Pedro de la Paz (50,3%, 300 vote margin), a comuna that has seen heavy gentrification.



The Arauco province went heavily for Kast, especially the southern area were the Mapuche conflict and rural violence are heavy. He won 69% in Contulmo and 62% in Tirúa, which has a very high Mapuche population and is emblematic because of the level of violence seen there. Kast also won the more traditionally coal comunas of the north of the province such as Arauco and Lebu (both ~55%) which for the first time ever voted to the right of the country. He also won Curanilahue by 19 votes (50,1%). The shift of Arauco is similar to other de-industrialized areas of the developed world but the heavy and growing evangelical presence is also a very big factor.

The interior of the region was Kast strongest area. He got 62% of the vote in BioBío Province, enough to offset the Boric victories in Metro Concepción. This area is rural and forestry is very important. Forest plantations are the most frequent target of violence in the Mapuche Conflict and the workers related to the industry have shifted hard to the right. Kast won over 60% in most of the comunas here, being especially strong in the city of Los Angeles where he got 66% (Los Angeles is actually a fairly big city by chilean standards, with 200k habitants is bigger than many regional capitals, its main industry is forestry). Kast was somewhat more muted near the Andes were the comunas used to lean left and still retains some vestiges of that support. I’m talking about places like Antuco here, the one comuna that Boric won in the interior is a totally different case altogether. Boric won Alto BioBío, the comuna with the highest share of Mapuche (over 80%), all of them living in traditional communities. This comuna used to be a rightist stronghold but swung dramatically to Boric (he got 54%, Guillier had gotten 36% in 2017). Boric won thanks to his 55% margin in the communities of Cauñicu, which are prosperous and dedicated to adventure tourism. This comuna exemplifies what I think is happening in the rural centre-south,  Mapuches living in traditional comunities are swinging to the left but this is compensated by a heavy swing to the right among the rest of the rural population.


<sub>2021-2017 swing map. Red=swing to the left, Blue= swing to the right


2021-2009 swing map. Red=swing to the left, Blue= swing to the right</sub>

I made swing maps from 2017 and 2009. From 2017, Boric improved the most in Concepción Metro Area and Alto BioBío, but also advanced in most of the rural zones. He did worse than Guillier in all of Arauco (save for Curanilahue) and in some heavy forestry comunas. Compaed with 2009, also a narrow right victory, Boric only advanced in some areas of the Gran Concepción (mainly Concepción itself and Talcahuano) and Alto Biobío, but was almost enough to offset the heavy rural losses. The left support collapse in Arauco is particularly brutal, with only a dead cat bounce in Curanilahue (the only comuna that still has some active coal mines)

Turnout jumped 8% to 54%. In Metro Concepción, the turnout surge benefited Boric, which also managed to capture most Parisi voters (Concepción was one of Parisi strongest areas). However, in rural areas, Kast was the beneficiary, with Boric struggling to reach the combined left percentage of the first round.

[kaoras]

Araucanía

Araucanía is not only the region with the highest % of mapuche population, but also the most traditional right-wing stronghold, voting for the left only in the 2013 runoff. However, that lean has gotten stronger in the wake of the increasing violence of the mapuche land reclamations. It also should be noted that the electoral preferences of mapuche are kinda difficult to stablish, especially because many people claim mapuche ancestry but culturally are totally “chilean”.  Studies show that until a few years ago mapuches living in rural communities voted like rural areas (slight right lean) but heavily supported mapuche candidates. However, results this year show that these communities are diverging in their electoral habits from their non-indigenous neighbors.
 


Kast won all age groups save for women under 30. The age gap was strong and so was the rural-urban divide, with Boric winning the urban youth by comfortable margins while Kast swept the countryside.  



Araucanía wasn’t a clear sweep. Boric narrowly carried Saavedra which is a fishing town and has a remarkably high concentration of traditional mapuche communities. Kast got over 60% of the vote in most of the comunas of the region and got over or near 70% in the northern Malleco province, which has been traditionally very right wing and has seen a lot of violence. He did particularly well in the comunas with significant forestry industry. His best result was in the small city of Victoria with 71,5%. Provincial capital Angol also gave him 67,7%. Kast also won by enormous margins in the traditionally left-wing Renaico and Collipulli in the border with Biobio. Those comunas (very affected by the violence) were won by Frei in 2009 but there Boric did worse than Guillier, with Kast reaching 68% in Collipulli.

Kast weakest areas were the urban centers of Cautín province and a cluster of comunas in eastern Araucanía. In the regional capital Temuco and its conurbation Padre de las Casas, Kast was held to 56%. The ~6% left swing from 2017 here is mainly what caused the small 2% shift to the left of the region (He went backwards in most of the rural areas). Boric also improved in the touristy lakeside comunas of Pucón and Villarica, which are more affluent than the rest of the region. Pucón had the largest swing towards him (13%) and was his third best result in the region with 45%, after having been the only comuna that voted for Matthei in the 2013 runoff!

In eastern Araucanía, Kast was noticeable weaker in the cluster of Saavedra, Nueva Imperial, Cholchol and Galvarino, along with Loncoche in the border with Los Ríos. All these places have in common that they have a remarkably high concentration of traditional mapuche communities and have either trended to the left or shifted much less to the right than the rest of the region. Kast got “only” around 55% in these areas and lost Saavedra. I think this clearly support my theory of a Mapuche shift to the left that counters somewhat the rural trend. Boric performance there was mixed compared to 2017. He did worse than Guillier in Saavedra and Galvarino but better in Nueva Imperial, Cholchol and Loncoche.



Turnout jumped 7% to 52%, to the benefit of Kast. Boric improved from the first-round left wing vote mainly in urban areas, but he struggled to reach the left first round percentage in the rest of the region.

[kaoras]

Los Ríos




My home region! Like Biobío, this also looks like a U.S. state, it even got the #coastal-elitists vibes. Its main industries are forestry, dairy, and tourism. Los Ríos is divided, with the capital of Valdivia, my hometown, which is a post-industrial city that now lives from sucking the blood of tourists in summer and college students the rest of the year (some of the biggest colleges of southern Chile are located here), being stubbornly left-wing. Meanwhile the interior of the region is fairly conservative, especially the lakeside comunas that on top the standard southern rural rightism are also a popular second home and retirement option for Santiago cuicos.

The age crosstabs are interesting in the sense that it seems that men under 70 are more leftwing that women, which was typica nationwide until the 2000’s.



Boric won only 3 of the 12 comunas of the region but it was enough for a 1% victory. Boric won the regional capital of Valdivia with 59%, a 15k vote margin that put him over the top in the region. The leftism of my hometown is something that has always puzzled me, since touristy cities tend to be right wing and the college effect is smaller than you think since many students don’t change their electoral address. I think it basically comes down to its industrial past whose Socialist traditions refuse to die (capital S, Valdivia and the region are PS strongholds since time immemorial). In the INSAT poll station, which is mainly young people, Boric got 69,3% of the vote. In the Instituto Comercial, which is all elders, he got 56,6%.

_{Fun fact: Valdivia is usually the last comuna to report results, so on election night Boric was behind until very late in the count. Just like the U.S.!}

The other Boric victories were Corral and Mariquina. Corral is also a post-industrial port, but its situation is more dire, all its industries are dead, and the port is only used to export woodchips. But their traditions seem even more stubborn considering that Boric got his best result in the region, with 64,8%. Mariquina combines some fishing communities, forestry and has a big pulp mill that is infamous for their contamination of Valdivia’s rivers. The comuna is always decided by narrow margins and Boric got 52%. Mississipi, Mariquina, Chile, went for Boric with 53,76%, along with the larger fishing town of Mehuín.

Kast swept the rest of the region. He carried Lanco, in the border with the Araucanía, by a surprisingly narrow margin (50,7%). That town has been trending left in recent years (maybe because of Mapuche communities but I’m not sure, there’s less data). Kast was strongest in the southern province of Ranco, which is more rural. He got a comfortable victory in the provincial capital of La Unión, another post-industrial city but one that has never been left-wing (main industry nowadays is dairy) and breaking 60% in Lago Ranco and Futrono, popular tourist retirement places for high income people. The only place Boric won in the interior of the region was Neltume, a small town near the Andes in the Panguipulli comuna. Neltume in the 80’s was home of one of the few attempts at guerrilla resistance against Pinochet. Boric also did better than usual in neighboring Choshuenco where he reached 48,86%.

Turnout jumped 7,5% from 46% to 53,5%, being divided evenly between Boric and Kast.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Constitutional Convention is finally debating packages of proposed rules on the floor, starting with “justice systems”. Main points of debate: separate indigenous justice systems, immunity for judges, life terms or term limits.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

The convention approved almost all of the proposed package of articles on the judiciary by 2/3 in the general vote (specific vote on Thursday, after which they’ll become part of the new constitution). Two articles (one that established potential term limits for judges and one that IIRC was about international courts overruling sentences) failed to reach the necessary 2/3 majority and being sent back to the committee as a result. Notably, indigenous justice systems and the rule that courts should “rule with a gender focus” as well as “intercultural principles” reached 2/3.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Yesterday was the voting on the first package of articles from the “Form of the State” commission, about the relationship between the regions and the national government. Most of the articles that laid out general principles were approved, but many of the articles that actually delineated specific powers and structures for the regions failed (one by just one vote!), often due to a lack of votes from the PC..

[kaoras]

Yesterday was the voting on the first package of articles from the “Form of the State” commission, about the relationship between the regions and the national government. Most of the articles that laid out general principles were approved, but many of the articles that actually delineated specific powers and structures for the regions failed (one by just one vote!), often due to a lack of votes from the PC..

Ah yes, the unholy UDI-PC centralist alliance. Also kinda funny seeing all the apocalyptic predictions from Santiago academics about the destruction of the country if the regions are given power. As someone from regions that has had to deal with stuff like the road outside my home (Within the urban area) not being paved for 56 years because the Public Works ministry in Santiago didn't feel like it I have absolutely 0 sympathies for those arguments about how "successful" the centralized state has been

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Yesterday was the voting on the first package of articles from the “Form of the State” commission, about the relationship between the regions and the national government. Most of the articles that laid out general principles were approved, but many of the articles that actually delineated specific powers and structures for the regions failed (one by just one vote!), often due to a lack of votes from the PC..

Ah yes, the unholy UDI-PC centralist alliance. Also kinda funny seeing all the apocalyptic predictions from Santiago academics about the destruction of the country if the regions are given power. As someone from regions that has had to deal with stuff like the road outside my home (Within the urban area) not being paved for 56 years because the Public Works ministry in Santiago didn't feel like it I have absolutely 0 sympathies for those arguments about how "successful" the centralized state has been

Yeah, it’s personally a huge LMAO to see everyone freaking out about what is relatively basic stuff in the US. Regional governments! Regional budgets! Spooky!

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

The first line of the new constitution has been written (they’re going clause by clause, with the only prior clause to reach 2/3 being the name of the overall section: “Justice Systems”): https://twitter.com/robotlabot/status/1494437158224019469?s=20&t=J_27XoFPN1aLbzBFx67X9Q

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Yesterday the convention voted to define Chile as a “regional, plurinational, and intercultural state”, although without much specifics about how power is to be divided between the regions and the central government. Earlier, during the second hearing on the judiciary, the proposal about indigenous justice systems was voted down (seen as too broad by the socialists) and sent back to committee.

[kaoras]

Also, a group of clowns personalities, mostly related to the ex-Concertación has formed a Whatsapp group called "Amarillos por Chile" _{(oh, of course they call it a movement, but so far it is literally a whatsapp group that sends letters to La Tercera and El Mercurio)}. They say that the convention is going for a dangerous "refoundational" path with their radical proposals of, eh, recognizing indigenous peoples and having actual regional governments. They say that Chile wants moderate reforms and want to lobby for a "yellow" constitution (In Chile Amarillo/Yellow is used to refer to "moderate heroes" and people who change positions on issues a lot).

They are led by the insufferable columnist Cristián Warnken and all the usual suspects such as Mariana Alwyn, Soledad Alvear and Andrés Velasco and also a few DC congress members like Ximena Rincón.

These people are like the 10-15% of support that the left has lost in the Barrio Alto in the last 10 years, a part of the elite that think that the economic and political model is good and should be preserved with minimal technocratic changes (as in, Bachelet reforms were too much for them) and also usually complain and how antidemocratic the left has become lately with an, honestly, fairly disturbing blind eye for the right wing authoritarianism of the likes of Kast and human rights abuses of the Piñera government.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Also, a group of clowns personalities, mostly related to the ex-Concertación has formed a Whatsapp group called "Amarillos por Chile" _{(oh, of course they call it a movement, but so far it is literally a whatsapp group that sends letters to La Tercera and El Mercurio)}. They say that the convention is going for a dangerous "refoundational" path with their radical proposals of, eh, recognizing indigenous peoples and having actual regional governments. They say that Chile wants moderate reforms and want to lobby for a "yellow" constitution (In Chile Amarillo/Yellow is used to refer to "moderate heroes" and people who change positions on issues a lot).

They are led by the insufferable columnist Cristián Warnken and all the usual suspects such as Mariana Alwyn, Soledad Alvear and Andrés Velasco and also a few DC congress members like Ximena Rincón.

These people are like the 10-15% of support that the left has lost in the Barrio Alto in the last 10 years, a part of the elite that think that the economic and political model is good and should be preserved with minimal technocratic changes (as in, Bachelet reforms were too much for them) and also usually complain and how antidemocratic the left has become lately with an, honestly, fairly disturbing blind eye for the right wing authoritarianism of the likes of Kast and human rights abuses of the Piñera government.

I imagine these are the same Rational Centrists(TM) that get mad that the right doesn’t have veto power in the Convention because they couldn’t reach the level of support they themselves instituted as a benchmark.

[MaxQue]

Also, a group of clowns personalities, mostly related to the ex-Concertación has formed a Whatsapp group called "Amarillos por Chile" _{(oh, of course they call it a movement, but so far it is literally a whatsapp group that sends letters to La Tercera and El Mercurio)}. They say that the convention is going for a dangerous "refoundational" path with their radical proposals of, eh, recognizing indigenous peoples and having actual regional governments. They say that Chile wants moderate reforms and want to lobby for a "yellow" constitution (In Chile Amarillo/Yellow is used to refer to "moderate heroes" and people who change positions on issues a lot).

They are led by the insufferable columnist Cristián Warnken and all the usual suspects such as Mariana Alwyn, Soledad Alvear and Andrés Velasco and also a few DC congress members like Ximena Rincón.

These people are like the 10-15% of support that the left has lost in the Barrio Alto in the last 10 years, a part of the elite that think that the economic and political model is good and should be preserved with minimal technocratic changes (as in, Bachelet reforms were too much for them) and also usually complain and how antidemocratic the left has become lately with an, honestly, fairly disturbing blind eye for the right wing authoritarianism of the likes of Kast and human rights abuses of the Piñera government.

A big part of the problem seems to be that everyone empowers them by calling them centrists instead sayign the truth and calling them right-wingers?

[kaoras]

Also, a group of clowns personalities, mostly related to the ex-Concertación has formed a Whatsapp group called "Amarillos por Chile" _{(oh, of course they call it a movement, but so far it is literally a whatsapp group that sends letters to La Tercera and El Mercurio)}. They say that the convention is going for a dangerous "refoundational" path with their radical proposals of, eh, recognizing indigenous peoples and having actual regional governments. They say that Chile wants moderate reforms and want to lobby for a "yellow" constitution (In Chile Amarillo/Yellow is used to refer to "moderate heroes" and people who change positions on issues a lot).

They are led by the insufferable columnist Cristián Warnken and all the usual suspects such as Mariana Alwyn, Soledad Alvear and Andrés Velasco and also a few DC congress members like Ximena Rincón.

These people are like the 10-15% of support that the left has lost in the Barrio Alto in the last 10 years, a part of the elite that think that the economic and political model is good and should be preserved with minimal technocratic changes (as in, Bachelet reforms were too much for them) and also usually complain and how antidemocratic the left has become lately with an, honestly, fairly disturbing blind eye for the right wing authoritarianism of the likes of Kast and human rights abuses of the Piñera government.

A big part of the problem seems to be that everyone empowers them by calling them centrists instead sayign the truth and calling them right-wingers?

Well, despite them being obviously moderate right wingers by now (and some of them like Mariana Aylwin have openly expressed sympathy for EVOPOLI for example), they have always been related to the centre-left and for most aligning themselves with the right is still a step too far.

These people can honestly say the the left "left them" though. The Concertación always had a debate between "Autoflagelantes"("self-flagellating") and "Autocomplacientes" ("self-indulgents") which dates all the way back to 1997. The first group said that the Concertación governments had been only administering the Pinochet model without doing actual structural reforms or solving the huge inequality problems while the latter group defended what the Concertación was doing and became convinced that the economic model was good and with a few tweaks it was the way to make Chilean developed and modern country. All these people belong to the second group

In the end, the Autoflagelantes "won" that debate, a fact crystallized by the formation of the New Majority in 2013 and Bachelet second government reformist platform. The Autocomplacientes either heavily criticized or outright sabotaged Bachelet reforms and started to split off from the center-left parties or lose power within them (Velasco founded Ciudadanos, Alywin clique left the DC, the likes of Rossi and Escalona have 0 influence in the PS now). They saw Piñera victory as proof that people were happy with the model (lol) and lately have adopted the typical right-wing view that the estallido social was an organized delictual attempt to overthrow the democratic Piñera government. With the left continuing to pivot more to the left to try to tackle the deep malaise that exist in the country, the autocomplacientes have truly been left behind. They also usually defend the "30 años", heavily criticized in the social uprising, as the best thing this country has ever experience.

They are, of course, media darlings because the right see them as the "reasonable" left that no longer exists and wishes desperately to go back to the old Concertación-Alianza dynamic without actual danger of meaningful change. (And I insists, Bachelet II was too much for them, of course they are terrified by the Convention)

[kaoras]

I imagine these are the same Rational Centrists(TM) that get mad that the right doesn’t have veto power in the Convention because they couldn’t reach the level of support they themselves instituted as a benchmark.

Also, this. They and the right complain that Chile Vamos proposals are rejected, and that the Constitution is not going to be wide enough. Dude, it is being drafted by 2/3! What do they want? Total consensus? Don't they realize that it runs both ways?

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

I imagine these are the same Rational Centrists(TM) that get mad that the right doesn’t have veto power in the Convention because they couldn’t reach the level of support they themselves instituted as a benchmark.

Also, this. They and the right complain that Chile Vamos proposals are rejected, and that the Constitution is not going to be wide enough. Dude, it is being drafted by 2/3! What do they want? Total consensus? Don't they realize that it runs both ways?

I read the article about Andrés Cruz from Colectivo Socialista saying that the convention isn’t listening to the right enough and… a) maybe the whole right wing should have tried getting literally a third of the votes in what is (hopefully) the most consequential election in 30 years, and b) he himself along with Montero and Muñoz and the gang have been almost singlehandedly stopping the FA-PC-PPOO from writing the constitution themselves, so it’s rather silly to act like there’s no dialogue when the most controversial articles have already been sent back to committee.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

The new big issue coming up in the convention is the debate over the composition of Congress, between supporters of a unicameral system on the left/far-left and bicameralism on the center/center-left. The current compromise, which appears to have the support of 2/3 of the convention, is a “Plurinational Congress” for the lower house and a “Territorial Council” with equal representation from each region and limited legislative powers over certain issues (mainly those affecting the regions themselves).

The political system commission’s proposal also includes consecutive reelection and term limits for the president (as in the US), a Vice President (and mandated gender parity for presidential tickets), and a cabinet chief minister similar to the prime minister in Peru or the jefe de gabinete in Argentina (seems tailor-made for Izkia Siches to be VP and Giorgio Jackson to be chief minister).