It's quite important as far as the national popular vote goes.
The national popular vote means absolutely nothing.
Still, we get lots of polls of the national margin. If California went for Clinton by 30 points and now Biden is leading by 36, it helps us weight the geography of the polls showing Biden overperforming Clinton by 8 nationally.
It doesn't change the popular vote as much as people think. California cast about 10% of all votes in the presidential race in 2016. It's realistic to assume that number will be about the same this year. Even having Biden win the state by 40% would only yield an additional 1% margin on the national popular vote. I have a hard time seeing the margin get
that high. But it is that potentiality plus Texas being a dead-heat that leads some people like Wasserman to say that the race could go to Trump even if he loses by 4% nationwide. I see the apparent logic in that, but I think 3% is the realistic upper limit of another split in the EV and PV for this year.
