GA-SEN 2022 Megathread: Werewolves and Vampires

[Adam Griffin]

None of the major sources seem to have updated turnout figures, so I decided to take a look at the SoS absentee file that - magically, for once this week - posted in the middle of the night and now requires splicing into multiple files in order to load.

1,860,717 voters are listed as having their ballots cast/returned as of now. This includes whomever may have their mail ballots rejected (as of Friday's close, this discrepancy is just a hair under 1,000 votes) as well as my projections of another 70k ABMs yet to be returned (there are 96k ABMs outstanding, but I'm projecting 90% return rate - as we saw in November - among the 236k total ABMs issued). At any rate...

...with the above numbers, 388,199 ballots (+/- 1000) were cast or returned yesterday (Friday). This is obviously a record-breaking one-day total. We'll have final data (with race, gender and age breakdowns) this morning at some point.

There may be a handful of counties or ballots yet to be reported to SoS in the mix from Friday, but I don't expect them to be a large sum. As such, we can take the 1.86m banked EVs and combine them with 0.07m EVs to arrive at a grand projected EV total of 1,930,000 early votes cast for the runoff.

[Adam Griffin]

I know this EV electorate is blacker than the November 2022 one, but is it blacker/less white than Jan 2021?

In terms of what voters are labeled explicitly as "black" by SoS, yes. That likely indicates that the actual share (inc. unknown/other) of black voters is higher as well.

Of course, there could be a bigger ED drop-off than in 2021 that whittles this seeming advantage away.

[Adam Griffin]

I know this EV electorate is blacker than the November 2022 one, but is it blacker/less white than Jan 2021?

In terms of what voters are labeled explicitly as "black" by SoS, yes. That likely indicates that the actual share (inc. unknown/other) of black voters is higher as well.

Of course, there could be a bigger ED drop-off than in 2021 that whittles this seeming advantage away.

Georgia still allows day-of absentee drop-offs at the polling place?

More or less. You can't just bring it to any precinct voting location on Election Day (unless you wish to void it and cast an in-person ballot), but instead have to take it either to a dropbox or the Board of Elections - which in many counties are one and the same in terms of location.

EDIT: when I said "bigger ED drop-off", I was referring to the electorate becoming even whiter on Election Day than it did on Election Day in the 2021 runoff, thereby potentially offsetting the unprecedented size of the black EV (as in, a dynamic of cannibalization producing a larger black share in this EV, only to disappear via a lily-white ED cohort).

[Adam Griffin]

(again, just doing so for record-keeping/tracking purposes personally):

As of Friday, 1,852,576 people have voted (73.45% of 2022-G EV).

380,058 votes were cast/received on Friday, smashing one-day records once again - and by more than fifty thousand votes.

55.0% White
31.8% Black
9.6% Other
1.8% Asian
1.7% Latino

55.9% Female
43.8% Male

7.9%   18-29
8.8%   30-39
12.7% 40-49
32.2% 50-64
38.2% 65+

Based on 2022-G ballot return rates (~90%), I estimate an additional 70,000 of the outstanding 95,704 ABMs will be returned by 7 PM on Tuesday, giving us a final EV total of approximately 1,920,000 voters.

[Adam Griffin]

I know this EV electorate is blacker than the November 2022 one, but is it blacker/less white than Jan 2021?

In terms of what voters are labeled explicitly as "black" by SoS, yes. That likely indicates that the actual share (inc. unknown/other) of black voters is higher as well.

Of course, there could be a bigger ED drop-off than in 2021 that whittles this seeming advantage away.

Georgia still allows day-of absentee drop-offs at the polling place?

More or less. You can't just bring it to any precinct voting location on Election Day (unless you wish to void it and cast an in-person ballot), but instead have to take it either to a dropbox or the Board of Elections - which in many counties are one and the same in terms of location.

Interesting.  While I understand it as an accommodation for voters who received their ballots late and didn't want to risk entering a public building during a pandemic, it doesn't really make sense to me why anyone would drop off an absentee ballot day-of vs. just handing in/destroying the blank ballot and voting in-person in a normal election?  First of all, this doesn't help people who requested mail ballots because they are out of town or unable to physically go to the polling place.  If you are in town on election day anyway, why would you risk having your absentee ballot disqualified on a technicality when you could put one in the machine normally and watch it get counted?

True.

Also, I edited perhaps after you quoted me and you may have missed it, but my intended context from the previous post:

EDIT: when I said "bigger ED drop-off", I was referring to the electorate becoming even whiter on Election Day than it did on Election Day in the 2021 runoff, thereby potentially offsetting the unprecedented size of the black EV (as in, a dynamic of cannibalization producing a larger black share in this EV, only to disappear via a lily-white ED cohort).

[Adam Griffin]

Here's the damage:

[Adam Griffin]

Thank you for all the data, Adam.

Could we also have a comparison of General vs Runoff EV by age and the % runoff early voters who didn't vote in the general?

For the first question, sadly I was lazy in tracking age breakdowns by day for the general election - I'm sure the data is out there somewhere, but I'll have to search for it. What I do recall is that the 18-29 final EV % for the general was essentially where it is for the runoff (~8%).

For the other question: 4.1% of runoff voters did not vote in November. This group breaks down as such:

40.62% White
37.39% Black
14.39% Other/Unknown
4.06%   Asian
3.54%   Latino

55.01% Female
41.26% Male
3.73%   Other/Unknown

29.48% 18-29
14.92% 30-39
14.02% 40-49
21.61% 50-64
16.58% 65+
3.39%   Unknown

[Adam Griffin]

I just received runoff polling toplines from the same individual (someone I've known for like a decade) affiliated with a Georgia-based GOP group that - for reference - gave me their early October 2020 poll that showed Biden +1 statewide, as well as their October 2022 Senate poll that showed Warnock +1 (both rounded to the nearest point).

Their Senate runoff poll - rounded - shows Warnock +5.

I said a few days ago that I found it difficult to see Warnock clearing 52% under the best-case scenario, but the EV data has improved for Democrats since then - and a 5-point win means 52.5% Warnock - so perhaps it is in fact feasible. Given their track record in 2020 and 2022, I want to believe!

[Adam Griffin]

At any rate...I'm obviously going to be watching this on Tuesday at a granular level, but for those who are more casual browsers regarding this election and can't be bothered to follow intently: this race is over. I may not be Dave Wasserman, but I have in fact seen enough:



Unless ED turnout is close to the size of EV turnout (or greater), Walker is cooked.

[Adam Griffin]

Unless ED turnout is close to the size of EV turnout (or greater), Walker is cooked.

Do you think it is not actually a real possibility that election day turnout may be higher than expected? I would think that with the shortened early vote period there are probably some people who may have voted early in the past during the longer periods in previous elections might end up not voting on election day because they are busy, because they forget, or even because of some freak weather or something.

And it is plausible those sorts of people could be disproportionately D voters. That is the one thing giving me pause, the possibility that Rs could win by being successful enough at suppressing the D early vote that they could end up winning on election day.

The early vote data on its face certainly does look very good, but with that major caveat regarding the shortened period.

Depends on what "higher than expected" entails. My only true expectation personally is that runoff turnout will not exceed general election turnout. We're on track for 1.92m EVs when all is said and done, so 2.02m is the absolute ceiling in any somewhat plausible scenario. However, is it that realistic to expect even a number close to that?

Maybe I'm touching on part of what you mean here (along with TG, I'm a bit confused), but if anything, a greater share than usual of those who are waiting to vote on Election Day may be metro voters who were turned off by huge wait times during the EV period that we haven't seen since the early Obama years.

I fully expect the EV/ED gap to be larger than in recent general elections (in 2020 & 2022, it was 26-28 points; in the 2021 runoff, it was 40 points). The problem for Walker is voter file analysis suggests that Warnock is leading among EVs by 15-20 points right now (in contrast, he won EV in the 2021 runoff by 14 points).

I checked with the individual I referenced prior: reverse-engineering their breakdowns, their poll is projecting 3.3m voters (which points toward an ED total of 1.4m voters). The EV/ED candidate support gap in that scenario would need to be close to 50 points for Walker to have a shot.

Loeffler got 63% in the 2021 runoff among an ED electorate of 1.3m voters (with the total electorate being 4.5m voters!). Walker not only needs Election Day to have more raw voters than we saw in an almost certainly higher turnout contest (2021 runoff), but he needs to win them by more than Loeffler did in order to win.

Just in case anybody is wondering, here are the EV shares of the electorate for all major elections over the past 4 years in GA:

EV % of Electorate
2020-GE   80.3%
2021-RO   70.4%
2022-GE   64.1%
2018-GE   53.7%
2018-RO   31.1%

Some might look at the 2018 runoff without realizing it was just two downballot contests (SoS & PSC) with a grand total of 1.5m voters and say "hey, that's a midterm runoff" - or look at 2020 general/2021 runoff and assume relatively nobody shows up on Tuesday - but all 3 are obviously unrealistic as comparisons here for reasons I don't think I have to explain.

At any rate, I'm expecting somewhere between 1.2m and 1.4m ED votes, as this has been the case in the past 2 major high-turnout contests. That ED share will work out to somewhere between 36-42% of all votes cast.

Raw ED Turnout
2021-RO 1316760
2022-GE 1410749

[Adam Griffin]

An additional 10,229 ABMs were received on Saturday & another 407 were received on Sunday, bringing the grand EV total to 1,863,212.

[Adam Griffin]

*snip*

I'll do my best to address all of this, but I do think there is one major point that needs to be reiterated: the shift among 2022 primary voters in this runoff:

Entering the final day of early voting in November (Friday), GOP-22 primary voters had a net advantage of 185572 votes.

For this runoff? Their advantage entering Friday was 8181 votes.

The two-way model there shifts from 57.0-43.0 in November to 50.5-49.5 today: 13 points.

The share of EVs in November that were 2022 primary voters was 52.5%: today, it is 46.8%. Yes: a greater share of the EV electorate in the runoff than in the general did not participate in the 2022 primaries.

We all have to make assumptions here and there, but it's pretty safe to say based on the D-R primary composition from November that non-primary EVs were considerably more pro-Warnock. If we assume for a second that non-primary EVs are identical in preference as they were in November, that alone is still enough to shift Warnock to around a 17-point EV lead.

But what happens if we - I think somewhat justifiably, given what we're seeing with higher-propensity participants thus far - assume that the ~53% of runoff EVs who didn't vote in the primary have likewise shifted substantially in Warnock's direction? If they have shifted by the same amount, then we're potentially looking at an EV lead for Warnock of 23-24 points.

While this likely isn't where things end up, such a scenario would require Walker clearing 65-35 on ED with a 1.5m vote electorate. Even a more modest scenario where Warnock wins EV by 18 points requires Walker winning by 25 with 1.45m, give or take.

It's not that there isn't a pathway (and perhaps me saying "it's over" etc was a bit too definitive), but it's a pretty fleeting one given what we've seen in recent Georgia elections. Increasingly, high rates of EV participation are making the early vote more informative than even just a few years ago. Georgia's not at NV or FL levels of predictability yet, but we're looking at Walker needing an unusual combination of factors to have a real shot.

[Adam Griffin]

And yes: maybe a good chunk of people are staying at home until Election Day. I still think that such an effect would also strengthen Warnock's prospects, given that long lines weren't a thing outside a handful of predominantly urban Democratic counties. If this dynamic of waiting due to schedule restrictions and long lines turns out to be true, it's more likely to dilute the ED margins Walker can expect rather than enhance them.

[Adam Griffin]

But what if ED/EV turnout looks like it did in the last GA midterm runoff?

Code: (2018 SoS/PSC General Runoff)

In-Person EV 	R+9.70
Vote by Mail 	R+1.88
Election Day 	R+1.82
Provisionals	D+29.00
================
ED Voters  	R+1.74
Early Voters	R+8.30

[Adam Griffin]

Something to keep an eye on in addition to obviously suburban Atlanta is the micropolitan areas around places like Macon and Augusta. It's flown a bit under the radar, but Democrats have made serious inroads in the Republican suburbs of these cities, notably Houston County and Columbia County. Watching tomorrow to see if Warnock can make Houston County a single digit affair and if he can hit 40% in Columbia County.

Counties like this have been sneaking up on Republicans for awhile. There are 6 in particular worth keeping an eye on in the coming years - if not because they will flip, just for the potential shifts in them - that all play a certain role in housing newer suburban/exurban college-educated types in a given metro.

Only 525k people among them (with Houston & Columbia comprising around 60% & Fayette being most of the rest), but an 11-point D shift in 4 years isn't nothing (the rest of the state combined only shifted 5 points by comparison):

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::7f160c19-d55e-467e-8550-e25c29a902ed

[Adam Griffin]

https://twitter.com/adamgriffin/status/1599855473951318017

[Adam Griffin]

If I get another fcking campaign text from Warnock’s campaign I swear to god.

10+ text messages in the past week… please stop fcking texting me to go vote for Warnock. There’s not even any reasons in any of these text messages.

Reply stop and opt out? Lol

You are extremely naive if you think that works... are you four years old? I’ve been responding stop and blocking every number and they keep coming. Warnock’s team doesn’t give a rats ass about what you want. My friend and his dad are getting spammed and neither are even eligible to vote.

Okay sis, keep going after Warnock when every single campaign does this. Be a little less transparent next time

I have actually not gotten a single text from Walker (probably indicative of the fact that he will lose by 4). Regardless, I am not motivated to go out and vote specifically for Walker, and I’m not sure even annoying campaign texts from Warnock is enough to make me vote.

But seriously, why am I getting so many texts from Warnock with 0 reason why I should vote for him? Shouldn’t he be trying to convince people to vote for him, not just saying “go vote for Warnock”? Is it that hard to say “Warnock helped eliminate student loan debt”?

Almost certainly a combination of your demographic profile and primary voting history. Lists also get passed around like party bottoms as you've mentioned: didn't you engage at some point with your college Democratic chapter? If so, that'd be a big "just blast 'em and don't worry about how they'll vote" indicator if integrated with their campaign data.
 
The campaign has likely taken a calculated risk to some degree based on the fact that Warnock statistically is doing much better with soft Republicans than an average candidate, so even those - if they also check off enough boxes - are likely to get turnout-focused reminders rather than persuasion-based pitches. It's also fairly difficult to persuade anybody to change how they'll vote with a simple text message (whether it's an actual stranger texting you or just mass spam).

[Adam Griffin]

^^^ While it's never 100% guaranteed, the simplest solution to minimize any and all kinds of political spam is to just vote early. Before the law changed, getting my mail ballot in early September and back by mid-September dramatically insulated me from texts, mailers and phone calls.

Some campaigns take a few days to filter daily EV records into their universes & certain campaign actions will have been queued up for days prior (not to mention in the case of mail specifically, it takes a few days for said mail to arrive once deployed) - which is why you'll probably continue to receive spam for a week or even two after voting. Really bad campaigns never integrate said data and continue wasting money on outreach even if the voter cast a ballot weeks ago.

Given the short EV window and the extended holiday disruption, it's probably worse than normal right now. This means even if you did vote as soon as possible, the window is just so short that one form of spam or another is going to keep arriving through Election Day. I returned my mail ballot ASAP and it wasn't even confirmed by the SoS until 11/28.

[Adam Griffin]

Something to keep an eye on in addition to obviously suburban Atlanta is the micropolitan areas around places like Macon and Augusta. It's flown a bit under the radar, but Democrats have made serious inroads in the Republican suburbs of these cities, notably Houston County and Columbia County. Watching tomorrow to see if Warnock can make Houston County a single digit affair and if he can hit 40% in Columbia County.

Counties like this have been sneaking up on Republicans for awhile. There are 6 in particular worth keeping an eye on in the coming years - if not because they will flip, just for the potential shifts in them - that all play a certain role in housing newer suburban/exurban college-educated types in a given metro.

Only 525k people among them (with Houston & Columbia comprising around 60% & Fayette being most of the rest), but an 11-point D shift in 4 years isn't nothing (the rest of the state combined only shifted 5 points by comparison):

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::7f160c19-d55e-467e-8550-e25c29a902ed

I can't speak to the rest, but important to note that the three largest of these counties have booming diverse suburbs. Warner Robins is both a military town and a suburb, and that latter identifier put the community demographically in the position to elect it's first African American mayor last year. Fayette has the obvious spillover from Atlanta that seems poised to give Warnock the topline result tomorrow. Majority-minority Grovetown in Columbia grew so fast in the last two decades that the suburb is now demographically spilling over into unincorporated territory.

It's pretty incredible that those 6 combined (even taking out the smaller 3 doesn't change the overall swing; 11 points) have swung between 2016P & 2021RO only slightly less (0.8 points) than Paulding, Cherokee and Forsyth:

Fayette/Columbia/Houston: R+26.5 -> R+15.0
Paulding/Cherokee/Forsyth: R+47.1 -> R+34.8

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::6b6c88e4-2262-4db5-86ef-076e2c3b5e00

[Adam Griffin]

I voted for Walker. Not motivated to vote for him now that Trump is running.

Primary history is 2018 GOP (Abrams general) 2020 dem 2022 GOP.

Given your voting history (specifically voting in a Democratic primary) they still probably see you as someone they could win over/could turn out for Warnock.

Yeah, without knowing anything else (including 2018 GE vote), that combo screams "disaffected Republican who now votes for 'reasonable Democrats' because Trump poisoned their well".

EDIT: I actually read it wrong initially: thought it was a 2022 DEM primary vote. Well, not as ideal for turnout targeting, but given Warnock's inroads with voters with this kind of primary history, it's not too surprising.

[Adam Griffin]

What is the Republican plan to deal with inflation?

Republicans have a secret plan to fight inflation.

[Adam Griffin]

Worth noting that only 40% of the nearly 78,000 non-November voters are white. Walker probably has at least a 25% edge with these new voters, likely even more than that. That 25% margin would be around a 20,000 vote net gain.

You mean Warnock has a 25% edge, right?

Ye you're right. Two W names is tricky lol

Does Warnock have an edge with White voters?  or just non-November White voters?  (I would think Walker has an edge with generic white voters)

As I noted a page or two back, among all EV 2022 primary voters who voted early in November, 57% voted in the GOP primary; 43% in the DEM primary. This was a bit over half of the overall EV, with a 14-point GOP advantage measured by primary participation - yet Warnock won overall EV by 10 points. Hard to imagine those who didn't vote in the primary weren't ~65% Warnock or more.

For the runoff, it's harder to say, but given that non-GE voters are disproportionately going to skew young, it wouldn't surprise me if the white non-GE runoff voters are well north of 40% Warnock. Skeptical Warnock has a net advantage among them, though.

[Adam Griffin]

@Adam: When should we get an update on the number of returned and outstanding mail ballots from today?

Hopefully, the SoS file will update sometime between 10PM and 12AM ET tonight, but almost every day during EV last week, nobody could update until the following morning because SoS didn't, either. Two main sources to check:

https://georgiavotes.com/ - tends to update the following morning now and/or once EV file gets too big and takes later for SoS to update (we're at that point now)

https://www.ajc.com/politics/early-voting/ - generally updates within minutes of SoS *if* SoS file updates prior to midnight ET

The master absentee file - which doesn't have breakdowns easily visible by race/gender/age etc in them - can be found here (select "2022", "statewide" and "12/06/22 election": https://sos.ga.gov/page/voter-absentee-files

[Adam Griffin]

Doubtful this has any of the Monday ABM batch in it - probably the remainder from Sunday that county election boards processed early today - but:

An additional 4,812 votes received were received on Sunday and reported today (in addition to the 407 ABMs both processed and reported yesterday). The total EV received as of Sunday stands at 1,868,024 votes.

[Adam Griffin]

As of right now, 155,572 of the 224,008 non-spoiled/canceled/rejected ballots have been received (69.44%).

I highly expect we'll see another 20-30k ballots counted with today's update, and perhaps another 15-20k tomorrow.