FL-NBC/Marist: TIE

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1303440842611462148?s=19

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

This poll is the first data point since March that makes me genuinely worried that the race is shifting and Biden is in trouble. Tied in FL means Biden is probably up 2-3% nationally and holding together an electoral lead by the skin of his teeth. Hopefully there will be better news.

The possibility of a 300+ EV Biden win that will be decided by midnight seems to be evaporating. My guess at this point is Biden gets 278 EVs and we'll be waiting on results in WI, PA, and AZ into the wee hours.

It's one poll 8 weeks away from the election.

Also, when has Florida not been close?

"Throw it in the average", right?

[Calthrina950]

Not surprising to see Florida coming back down to Earth, as it were. But it amazes me that Trump can still win the state even after everything that has transpired. If this turns out to be a close election, with Trump losing by the slimmest of margins in the critical swing states, then it will demonstrate how polarized this country truly has become. I can only imagine what the 2024 election will look like after two terms of Trump.

[Beet]

While I'm not sure it's plausible that Biden is losing FL Latinos, it's definitely been obvious for a while that he's having trouble connecting with Latino voters.  

He probably should have chosen a Latina running mate.  I really have no idea what he thought Harris was adding to the ticket.  She doesn't even help with black voters: 22% of black respondents view her unfavorably in this poll, compared with 14% of black respondents who view Biden unfavorably.

Exactly my thoughts.

[Tekken_Guy]

Some things to note about Florida.

-Nelson won Miami Dade by 21 but lost the rest of the state by 2, Gillum won MD by 20 and lost the rest by 3. Clinton, however, won MD by 30 but lost the rest by 5.
-Turnout is also going to be key. Miami-Dade 

[EJ24]

Do any of you red avatars seriously believe these old white boomers are not gonna tuck tail and run back into Trump's arms by election day? They love the guy, willing to literally die for him. Their contempt for black people is unmatched.

Florida is SAFE R. Trump wins by 13%.

[Person Man]

Do any of you red avatars seriously believe these old white boomers are not gonna tuck tail and run back into Trump's arms by election day? They love the guy, willing to literally die for him. Their contempt for black people is unmatched.

Florida is SAFE R. Trump wins by 13%.

Hell, even black and brown people don't like other black and brown people down there. It's as if in MD in Florida, they would do what the North Korean bad guy did in James Bond: Die Another Day. There's definitely a cosmetic market for CRISPR down here!

[Niemeyerite]

If Biden is winning Florida by 3 to 5 points, it ought to be normal to see some polls showing a tied race. Next!

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/ThePlumLineGS/status/1303452670758457345

[The Mikado]

Likely Tossup->Safe Tossup.

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1303448003064279040

[Rand]

This is why in general you shouldn't trust polls.

[Suburbia]

Florida is Tossup.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Florida is Tossup.

Florida? A tossup??

NEVER!

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1303448003064279040

They had Florida at Lean D?

[Skye]

4 pages for a single state poll in less than a day has to be peak Atlas.

[Progressive Pessimist]

This f***ing state! Thankfully I never had my hopes up for it after 2018. I always knew it would be capable of disappointing again and always took Biden's leads here with a grain of salt. Sure, a tie here basically suggests a Trump victory, but him leading in a Florida poll at all would indicate that it's safe for him, so at least there's that. Biden can still win here but it is going to take a lot of outreach, spending, and work. I think Biden may be up to the task though. He doesn't actually even need the state, it's still more important for Trump, but it would be good to have so that it could possibly spare us the anxiety on election night before all the mail-in votes are counted over the course of potentially days and weeks. Also I want Trump to lose his new, second home state.

[krb08]

Sure, a tie here basically suggests a Trump victory, but him leading in a Florida poll at all would indicate that it's safe for him, so at least there's that. Biden can still win here but it is going to take a lot of outreach, spending, and work.

This is one poll. One. Poll. This reaction is not warranted. If a single high-quality poll is released that shows Trump up by 1, that does not make FL "safe for him". Please take a step back. FL was always going to be a tossup and this poll proves it.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Sure, a tie here basically suggests a Trump victory, but him leading in a Florida poll at all would indicate that it's safe for him, so at least there's that. Biden can still win here but it is going to take a lot of outreach, spending, and work.

This is one poll. One. Poll. This reaction is not warranted. If a single high-quality poll is released that shows Trump up by 1, that does not make FL "safe for him". Please take a step back. FL was always going to be a tossup and this poll proves it.

I know that, I've always known that, but 2018 broke me and my ability to trust this state. I'm getting those vibes again. I don't believe in skewing polls to favor Trump, except for here.

[krb08]

Sure, a tie here basically suggests a Trump victory, but him leading in a Florida poll at all would indicate that it's safe for him, so at least there's that. Biden can still win here but it is going to take a lot of outreach, spending, and work.

This is one poll. One. Poll. This reaction is not warranted. If a single high-quality poll is released that shows Trump up by 1, that does not make FL "safe for him". Please take a step back. FL was always going to be a tossup and this poll proves it.

I know that, I've always known that, but 2018 broke me and my ability to trust this state. I'm getting those vibes again. I don't believe in skewing polls to favor Trump, except for here.

I agree FL has disappointed us a lot before, I just don't think this kind of reaction is warranted. Trust me, as a Floridian, I've been disappointed more times than I can count. Just keep in mind that this is only one tied poll with some wonky subsamples. FL seems to be getting closer but we still have time, and Biden still leads in the aggregates. There are still two months to go, and Harris will be in Miami on Thursday. Hopefully her Caribbean roots can help her with voters there.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

This thread is really gonna get to 6 pages by midnight PST, huh?

[Senator Spark]

Further proves my point that Biden can't win FL because of his performance with Latinos. But if he does well enough as we've seen in some polls with white voters in places like Seminole, Duval, etc. he still has a chance.

[WD]

This thread is really gonna get to 6 pages by midnight PST, huh?

Drink.

As far as my drinking game:


- "Trash/junk poll" (Chug if posted by a blue avatar)
- "If the poll had Biden winning by x%, all you Democrats wouldn't be calling it trash" (Another drink if posted by a green avatar)
- "Trump is not doing x% with _____"
- "This'll be a x page thread" (Chug if it reaches x pages within 24 hours)
- "Who are they?" or "They're still around?"
- "I'm scared/freaking out"
- Cohn/Silver/Morris/Enten tweet about how the trash poll is likely trash
- NEW ADDITION: "Trump got a _____ bump after all"
- NEW ADDITION: "I told you all but no one believed me"
- NEW ADDITION: “Can we not freak out over a single poll?” (Chug if someone reasponds with "This is Atlas")
- NEW ADDITION: Throw it in the average" post is immediately followed by someone citing this specific poll as proof of whatever narrative they're believing
- NEW ADDITION: Blue avatar - "Let me guess, this poll is trash too? (Chug if someone posts clear crosstabs results that prove why it's trash, such as Trump doing double-digits with black voters)

[SenatorCouzens]

4 pages for a single state poll in less than a day has to be peak Atlas.

Isn't this good? It's a political discussion board. And we have a high quality poll from the largest competitive state. And it's finally after Labor Day.

Substantive discussion of this is much better than cringey sarcasm and incessant meme-ing.

[DrScholl]

There is no way that Trump is actually leading with Hispanic voters and only managing a tie. If he was actually leading with them he'd be leading the top line. That is most likely just a poor crosstab.