Pennsylvania 2014 Discussion Thread

[henster]

Schwartz is a bad fit statewide for PA (heading an abortion clinic really?). I don't know Rob McCord why hasn't caught on yet, he's the most electable and viable candidate out of the bunch. He has business experience, has been elected statewide twice, and has a African-American wife.

[henster]

I think everyone can agree with me that Rob McCord is a much better candidate than Allyson Schwartz.

[henster]

Likely D this guy is a dead man walking he will not be re-elected.

[henster]

Who is Tom Wolf? He just raised 13.27 million for Governor!

[henster]

I'd still say McCord has the edge in the primary he is the strongest candidate for the General by far and would crush Corbett, Schwartz advantage in the polls will fade as the primary election grows nearer and the ads start dropping.

[henster]

Rob McCord looks like the strongest candidate in this race by far I don't see anything special Schwartz other than her being a women...

[henster]

Anyone think McCord is gonna pull a De Blasio and start having his family in ads and campaign with him to appeal to black voters?

[henster]

I'm still betting Corbett wins reelection

There's absolutely nothing no polls indicating he would be re-elected there has been no rebound in his approval rating months away from the election November I don't what your basing your assumptions on him winning on.

[henster]

If Schwartz becomes the nominee then abortion becomes an issue it doesn't if McCord is the nominee it's as simple as that. McCord doesn't have baggage like Schwartz with her voting record and past history.

[henster]

If Schwartz becomes the nominee then abortion becomes an issue it doesn't if McCord is the nominee it's as simple as that. McCord doesn't have baggage like Schwartz with her voting record and past history.

See poll I posted above.

By the way, McCord is also pro-choice.

McCord didn't run an abortion clinic. It's clearly going to be more of an issue if someone like Schwartz is the nominee. Please stop comparing apples to oranges, dude. You are even annoying people that are on your side.

Running an abortion clinic and possibly having ties to the Gosnell clinic is going to get far more coverage in a state race (especially in a state with restrictive abortion laws) over a national campaign where the narrative was about the economic collapse. You really have to stop comparing the two. Of course Corbett's record is going to be the main focus but you're living in a fantasy land if you think Schwartz's history in that "other field" (which I believe was wiped from her website. Must not be taking campaign advice from you) is going to get as much play as Obama's support for partial birth abortion in a Presidential campaign waged in the midst of a financial meltdown.

Plus, PA is more partisan in Presidential elections. Dems "come home" far more often than in state and local elections. 

Of course it's going to be "more of an issue" if Schwartz is the nominee. But the fact that people are acting like it will be the nail in the coffin of her campaign and nullify Corbett's 30% approval rating is hilarious. Yes, I'm sure the 37% of PA who thinks abortion should be illegal all/most of the time will be voting Corbett if Schwartz is the nominee, but since there's likely quite a bit of overlap between that 37% and the 30% of voters who approve of him, no big loss there. How is Schwartz running an abortion clinic going to turn off voters who think abortion should be legal all or most of the time? It isn't. Even "soft" pro-choice voters aren't going to think Corbett, who they already know and hate, is suddenly the lesser of two evils just because Schwartz ran an abortion clinic.

We wouldn't be talking about abortion if McCord was the nominee the focus should be on Corbett's dismal record, Schwartz would just give Corbett the ability to divert from his record and talk about Schwartz's.

[henster]

I'm pretty sure whoever the nominee is could defeat Corbett I just think McCord will have the easiest time and the biggest margin of victory. Schwartz may win by 5 or more points but I could see McCord pulling out a blowout.

[henster]

I'm pretty sure whoever the nominee is could defeat Corbett I just think McCord will have the easiest time and the biggest margin of victory. Schwartz may win by 5 or more points but I could see McCord pulling out a blowout.

Underestimating Corbett is not a good idea, though I think it will be close.

Underestimating Corbett? I'm basing this off every poll for the past few years, he's deeply unpopular and not recovering, his base doesn't even like him. Any competent candidate would easily defeat him. He has made countless gaffes not to mention the PennState sex scandal hanging over him I can't see how this will be close.

[henster]

Corbett is polling worse than Santorum was in 2006 he's not even breaking 40% in any of these polls I think a challenger like Wolf who gets a lot of crossover appeal could break 60%.

[henster]

Sawx, I'm NOT on drugs. Never used that crap ever in my lifetime, considering that I'm an USAF veteran.

You cannot rule out a comeback for Corbett.

Just saying. Same folks who were predicting that KBH was going to beat Perry in the 2010 GOP primary for governor, but Perry kicked KBH's ass by 21 points (51%-30%) went onto defeating Bill White by 13 points in the general election:55%-42%., carrying 226 out of 254 counties.

Pennsylvania is not Texas. Perry won because of Texas's Republican lean, Corbett has to deal with his terrible approval rating in a light blue state.

[henster]

Corbett is not running against Kane and neither of the Gov candidates have any connections to this scandal. There has been evidence of any recovery in Corbett's approval rating in fact they have gotten even worse he is a goner.

[henster]

Wagner drops out:  http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2014/03/wagner_bows_out_democratic_gov.html#incart_river_default

Ha. Wow. That was sad.

Conservadems get support only when the primary voters think they need one to win. With Corbett looking so weak and several more liberal and equally strong alternatives, Wagner never had a chance.

You mean like 2010?

Wagner lost the primary then to Onorato, Dan Onorato, who was, in turn, trounced by Corbett.

If you want to add A) 2014 will be as bad a year as 2010 and B) Corbett was just as weak as he was then as he was now to your list of denials and delusions then yeah that's what I mean.

I have not said anything about Corbett's weakness, only the weakness of your statements.

Wagner was probably the strongest candidate in the General.  It does mean that Corbett won't lose, but the likelihood that he will just went down.  A lot of Corbett's political problems are going away, ironically with no effort from Corbett.

I've seen no indication that Corbett is recovering or his problems are "going away" He was trailing even Hanger in the last poll I've seen with his approval rating in the mid 30s. The time for recovery has passed Kasich, Walker and other GOP Govs have had their low points and have bounced back gradually while Corbett's #'s have gotten only worse. I'm not seeing anything from now to November that will cause him to jump an approval rating in the 30s to where he needs to be to win re-election.

[henster]

Schwartz is the only candidate not on air it's not like she's broke either. I mean McGinty is even on air and she's not exactly flowing in cash. What is Team Schwartz doing/planning their completely MIA and sitting on a ton of cash this has to be one of the worst run campaigns I've seen in a while. Going from frontrunner to single digits is a disaster for any candidate.

[henster]

If all Schwartz has to hit Wolf with is the loan then he has this thing sewn up it's just not a thing that's going to get voters to abandon him. And Schwartz's first campaign ad on CHIP seemed weak and ineffective it's just not something people care about.

[henster]

It means Corbett is coming baaack from the political dead.

Ya the Penn State scandal/coverup , massive education cuts, numerous gaffes "Just close your eyes"  are all just going away

[henster]

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That was from Quinnipiac's poll from February about three months. I am not seeing how these little things will help him win re-election? If he were hovering in the low to mid forties then he would have a chance at a comeback but I don't see what he can do between now and November to go from a 36 approval rating to a point where he can win re-election.

[henster]

Back in 1994, all of the so-called experts predicted then-California Governor Pete Wilson (R) was toast following the disastrous budget crisis, etc.,

Wilson came from the political dead and won reelection by double digits.

Corbett, thus far, has not given us any evidence that he has near the political skill that Pete Wilson has.

The question is, do any of the Democratic candidates have the political skills of Corbett.  I am starting to wonder.

Corbett cannot win the governor's race, but Democratic Nominee [insert name here] can lose it.

It might be a case of the evil of two lessers. 

If Corbett had such great political skills, his approval wouldn't be sitting at 36%.

My point is that Corbett is not great, but the others might be worse.

I think we're at the point in PA where voters are willing to overlook the flaws of Corbett's opponent in order to throw him out. He's deeply disliked and very unpopular and the voters are ready to get rid of him unless one of the Dem nominees has a criminal background or something I'm not seeing how one of them could allow for Corbett to be re-elected.

[henster]

At this point I don't even know why we're talking about Schwartz's problems in a GE when she's down thirty points in the primary. Wolf is the likely nominee unless something major occurs that shifts the race to her favor and Wolf has even less to do with Kane than Schwartz does.

[henster]

Wolf 38, Schwartz 13, McCord 11, McGinty 2

http://www.politicspa.com/muhlenbergmcall-poll-wolf-38-schwartz-13/57468/

Looks like I was right Schwartz is going nowhere Wolf has this locked up.

[henster]

PA facing more than 1 billion dollar shortfall; big cuts likely from Corbett in election year.

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http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2014/04/pennsylvania_gets_more_bad_bud.html

Ya I'm seeing a Corbett comeback...

[henster]

I think Corbett is pretty irrelevant at this point his situation is not improving and the conditions in PA mean it will not likely improve for him. At this point his defeat is a guaranteed outcome at this point right now the real questions are who the Democratic nominee will be and how big of a margin they will win in November.