Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[GoTfan]

Is this now WW3 starting?

[GoTfan]

The end result of this is nuclear war.

[GoTfan]

We're barrelling headlong into World War 3 and potential nuclear war here and it's astonishing no one realises that.

[GoTfan]

Biden gets it!

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/01/19/takeaways-biden-news-conference/
5 takeaways from the Biden news conference

2. Playing down a ‘minor incursion’ by Russia into Ukraine?

Among the Biden comments that will probably be chewed over extensively was one suggesting that a smaller incursion by Russia into Ukraine might not merit the same response.

The comments were quickly clarified by the White House, which offered a significantly different message.

“I think what you’re going to see is that Russia will be held accountable if it invades, and it depends on what it does,” Biden said. “It’s one thing if it’s a minor incursion, and then we end up having a fight about what to do and not do, etcetera.”

He added: “But if they actually do what they’re capable of doing, with the force amassed on the border, it is going to be a disaster for Russia if they further invade Ukraine. And our allies and partners are ready to impose severe cost and significant harm on Russia and the Russian economy.”

That is logical, but it’s one thing for it to be the approach, and it’s another to state it publicly. It seemed to suggest that maybe Russia could go into Ukraine without much in the way of a response, as long as it wasn’t a fuller invasion. It wasn’t long ago the Russia annexed Crimea; would something like that be considered a “minor incursion”?

In situations such as these, you generally avoid saying what might be acceptable — or more acceptable — even if you don’t want to commit to specific retaliatory action.

Biden reiterated later, “It depends on what [Vladimir Putin] does.” He also notably pointed to the negative impact severe sanctions on Russia could have on the West and suggested it would be harder to have a unified NATO response with a more minor Russian effort.

Shortly after the news conference, though, the White House put out a statement indicating a harder line and assuring the kind of unified response that Biden suggested he couldn’t guarantee.

“President Biden has been clear with the Russian president: If any Russian military forces move across the Ukrainian border, that’s a renewed invasion, and it will be met with a swift, severe and united response from the United States and our allies,” press secretary Jen Psaki said.

Thank you, Pr. Biden!

Somehow I'm not surprised at an awful person like yourself backing this.

[GoTfan]

I just wrote a big long post about this in USGD but suffice to say I do think that this could be worth going to war over. Appeasement has historically had disastrous consequences and I am altogether unconvinced that Ukraine is the extent of Russian territorial ambitions.

So start a nuclear war, basically.

It amazes me how few people on here realise that we're barrelling towards Armageddon here. Or they realise it and just don't really care. Don't you understand that this is not the 1930s anymore?  Humanity could be wiped out with the push of a button.

[GoTfan]

So apart from actually starting WW3, what are our options?

Tough sounding rhetoric is all well and good, but apart from the real danger of things escalating out of control it doesn't take into account the immense war weariness throughout the democratic world.

(why else was Afghanistan abandoned?)

If the United States and NATO made it clear beyond any doubt that they will defend the territorial sovereignty of Ukraine to the hilt, and began to station combat ready troops in Ukraine, Putin would undoubtedly stand down. Putin can win a war against Ukraine alone, but with the United States and the whole of NATO committed to defending Ukraine, Russia wouldn't even stand the shadow of a chance, and wouldn't risk the dangers of attacking NATO troops.

More likely he'll just throw more troops in.

I'm really disturbed that this entire forum seems to be cheering for WW3.

[GoTfan]

So apart from actually starting WW3, what are our options?

Tough sounding rhetoric is all well and good, but apart from the real danger of things escalating out of control it doesn't take into account the immense war weariness throughout the democratic world.

(why else was Afghanistan abandoned?)

If the United States and NATO made it clear beyond any doubt that they will defend the territorial sovereignty of Ukraine to the hilt, and began to station combat ready troops in Ukraine, Putin would undoubtedly stand down. Putin can win a war against Ukraine alone, but with the United States and the whole of NATO committed to defending Ukraine, Russia wouldn't even stand the shadow of a chance, and wouldn't risk the dangers of attacking NATO troops.

More likely he'll just throw more troops in.

I'm really disturbed that this entire forum seems to be cheering for WW3.

Mutually Assured Destruction is enough of a deterrent for nuclear war. Worldwide nuclear war is a thing for Sci-fi, and doesn't represent a very prominent threat in real world terms. I don't think Joe Biden or Vladimir Putin have any desire whatsoever to destroy human life on earth in a global nuclear war, and anyone who thinks they realistically have that capacity is simply fear mongering.

Yeah, I know MAD.

Anyone who believes it is a genuine deterrent really is quite MAD.

[GoTfan]

Christ, there's a lot of people on here failing to realise that this is not a videogame.

[GoTfan]

Honestly I'm convinced that Putin's desperately trying to use a diversionary foreign policy.

[GoTfan]

You want Biden to declare war on Russia?

Do you want a global nuclear war? That's how you're gonna get a global nuclear war. Call me a coward if you want, I don't care. I think a little cowardice is necessary when a war between the US and Russia would quite likely destroy the world was we know it.

[GoTfan]

I will do whatever is needed to halt the aggressors in their bloody tracks.

Buy ticket to Ukraine and fight for their freedom!

If the US fights back I won’t need to buy the ticket, still gotta save that money for what remains of my family!

Don't you understand?

If the US formally goes to war with Russia, there won't be any remains of anyone's families.

[GoTfan]

I will do whatever is needed to halt the aggressors in their bloody tracks.

Buy ticket to Ukraine and fight for their freedom!

If the US fights back I won’t need to buy the ticket, still gotta save that money for what remains of my family!

Don't you understand?

If the US formally goes to war with Russia, there won't be any remains of anyone's families.

Oh well then.

You seem to not fully grasp the idea of what happens if Russia and the US go to war. The end result will be a global thermonuclear war that will destroy the majority of the world and leave the remainder with little to no future.

[GoTfan]

I will do whatever is needed to halt the aggressors in their bloody tracks.

Buy ticket to Ukraine and fight for their freedom!

If the US fights back I won’t need to buy the ticket, still gotta save that money for what remains of my family!

Don't you understand?

If the US formally goes to war with Russia, there won't be any remains of anyone's families.

Oh well then.

You seem to not fully grasp the idea of what happens if Russia and the US go to war. The end result will be a global thermonuclear war that will destroy the majority of the world and leave the remainder with little to no future.

He trolls and is bad at it.

Thanks for the heads up.

I just don't understand how anyone could feasibly cheer for nuclear war. The survivors of it will envy those who died.

[GoTfan]

Almost certainly. Biden and Putin are like two men smoking cigars in a room full of gunpowder.

[GoTfan]

Apparently a disconnection from SWIFT is imminent.

Russia has stated that they will consdier this an act of war.

This is probably gonna be my last post in this forum. Thanks for the memories guys.

[GoTfan]

Still here, everyone. Disconnected for a short time to get my head right.

[GoTfan]

Nexta has backtracked almost immediately. Talks are not over, the delegations were taking a break.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1498306376916996097?cxt=HHwWgsC4jcTthsspAAAA

[GoTfan]

Nexta has backtracked almost immediately. Talks are not over, the delegations were taking a break.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1498306376916996097?cxt=HHwWgsC4jcTthsspAAAA

Nexta has proven to be an incredibly unreliable news source. I would have been shocked if the talks finished that quickly, so I disregarded that report.

Even putting everything else aside, this is incredibly shoddy and irresponsible reporting.

[GoTfan]

The biggest problem with the Western doves is that they truly have no red line. To them, anything to prevent something that would slightly raise the risk of a nuclear exchange is something which ought to be strived for at any cost. I am firmly convinced Putin could start sending Ukrainians to literal death camps (this is not excessive hyperbole for several posters have said there is no red line) and would not be stopped from doing it out of Western fear.

There are obviously risks inherent with escalation, but a lot of people seem to have the immediate assumption that any direct involvement=apocalypse. As if those on the Russian side want to do Moscow turned into oblivion and their children dead. Yes we have real stakes in the game, but so do they. That’s why they will fold when pressure gets too high, and the only reason they are doing this now is because they truly want to test the boundaries. The problem is, the West doesn’t have boundaries. In our post-Cold War society, we became accustomed to the idea of no inherent risk of nuclear exchange at all, and now seem attached to that idea at a horrifying cost.

Make no mistake, a world in which Russia invaded Ukraine is not one which will ever resemble a world in which they didn’t, even if we sing the songs of appeasement out of fear.

You’re an insane warmonger, and nobody should take anything you say seriously. The amount of death and destruction a conventional war between NATO and Russia would cause would be catastrophic. And yes, anything that slightly increases the risk of nuclear hellfire raining from the sky, killing all advanced life on Earth, should be avoided at all costs. The West has done plenty to support Ukraine and will hopefully do more in the future, but war with Russia is untenable. And stop with the hyperbole, get a hobby or something.

And you’re a fool for falling for the Russian scare tactics that are literally being used to push this narrative. You seem to literally ignore all my points on Russia, and assume that this idea that a war between NATO and Russia would be devastating is something that only you know. Literally everyone in Russia in a position of power in the military is well aware of what would happen in such a conflict, and they themselves have no desire for it. As I clearly stated (which your feeble eyes seemed to have ignored) Russian leadership also dies in a nuclear war. Their children their city, they all evaporate as well.
Why do you think Putin was warning the West more than even justifying his own actions in his speech that preceded the invasion? Because he can’t nor would fight a war with the West at all, and therefore has to resort to scare tactics to keep us from engaging.

Here is what would happen if we actually sent troops to the Western cities of Ukraine, the world would panic, and the scare tactics that Russia has been so successfully using against us would flip. Putin himself would see that he underestimated the West’s resolve, and begin a negotiation process. And if he tried to push further, tried to touch our troops (who wouldn’t be attacking FYI, Russia would have to be the one to pull the trigger) his inner circle will turn completely.

And by the way, when you say we should do literally anything to prevent even a slightly increased risk of nuclear exchange, that includes permitting literal death camps. No Russia isn’t going to do that for a variety of reasons, but the point is that you and the doves here would absolutely allow such to happen even if the actual risk of nuclear exchange due to intervention is near minuscule. There is no hyperbole when you yourself say it.



 

I would advise you go and watch The Day After or Threads to see what is actually the most likely outcome of direct intervention.

I know you're eager to end human life but the rest of us are not.

[GoTfan]

If I may just share some of my limited knowledge on why the VDV forces are struggling.

VDV are paratroopers. They're practically deified in Russia. You need to be a certain height so you can be physically intimidating. Think of the grenadiers in various 18th and 19th Century armies.

The problem is that paratroopers are, and always have been, light troops trained for rapid assaults. They have been used in recent years by most armies as conventional light infantry. Fine for counterinsurgencies, but the problem they have in modern conventional war is that they lack the heavy armour needed for prolonged fighting. Sure, their training and equipment might be of a higher standard, but there is a hard limit on how much they can bring with them.

Trying an opposed drop on the first night of the invasion was just insanity. Even moreso when they were confronted by the more heavily armed National Guard. That is why they've been struggling badly: they are light assault troops. Paratroopers, as Market Garden should've taught the Russians, don't last long without traditional ground forces.

Not a military analyst, but seriously, paratroopers are rapid assault troops who have this mythos built around them, particularly in Russia. Bring serious firepower against them, and they can't do much about it, unless they have some serious air support.

[GoTfan]

I think Russia's problem is that that they really are racing against time. Having your Stock Exchange closed for this long and raising interest rates to 20% are not good signs.

Putin was likely banking on NATO being disunited and the international response being uncoordinated. This has had the complete opposite effect of course. In a recent video, it was reported that he basically wanted no more sanctions and was hoping to restore international cooperation. This might just be me reading into it, but it sounded like he might be softening his line. Slightly.

He was also banking on China coming to his rescue, which hasn't happened and I don't believe will happen.

As far as the military side of things, we know he likely banked on the Ukranina Military being a paper tiger, but that didn't come true either. Not to mention that the invasion force is dealing with massive logistical issues, to the point thwere the Ukranians were even able to reportedly mount a counterattack in Kharkiv and drive them back over the border. Ignoring cities is all well and good, but you run into the same problem the Germans did at theBattle of the Bulge: leaving significant enemy forces in your rear. OSINT accounts on Twitter are rife with reports that Ukranian special forces are already causing havoc behind the lines.

In addition, a lot of these OSINT accounts are also reporting that the Russians are moving equipment into Ukraine from the Far East, but take that with a grain of salt. If this is true, then it will take at least 1-2 weeks for those troops to be in position. And given the logistical issues that the Russians are having, probably even longer.

Hell, that 64km convoy is not really one long convoy, it's just smaller ones who bunched up because, the words of Clarke and Dawe, the front fell off. More specifically, some estimate that the first 17km f the convoy is likely running incredibly low on food as well, not just fuel. With Rasputitsa just around the corner, the Russian have a very limited window to either un-screw their logistics, or hope that the southern front is able to push an incredible distance in a short time.

Right now, it's a question of whether the Russian economy or Ukranian resistance cracks first.

I think we do need to keep a level head: it's incredibly likely that Ukraine falls. However, it is far, far easier to invade a country than it is to occupy it, especially when the entire population is against you. There's already signs of civilian resistance in Kherson. Not to mention that Russia would have to commit likely 400,000 troops at a minimum to quell any guerrilla movements. The problem Russia has with committing that many troops is that they have a lot of other borders to cover as well. I can't see them pulling significant forces from the northwest or the Far East, because that would mean abandoning their watches on NATO and China.

I do think that Russia will succeed in the short term. Long term however? I'm not sure. I don't personally think that the people below Putin have the same Machiavellian instincts that he does because they've been able to rely on him for all of Russia's manouevering.

Ukraine's hope for a conventional victory is either a negotiated peace, which Bennett is hopefully able to work towards, or that Russia's economy breaks.

[GoTfan]

TBH GoTfan through most of this conflict I was in the same mindset as you but now I’m actually having doubts Ukraine is actually gonna fall. The initial invasion stage as gone so bad for Russia I’m really having my doubts they will successfully pull off an invasion

I'd be very, very careful about assuming that. Let's not forget, Russia still possesses an extremely heavy advantage almost everywhere, and I can't see them retreating anytime soon. They've also sustained an advance rate of roughly 60-70 km a day, which is roughly what an armoured division can be expected to do. And like you said, this is only the initial stage.

The problem Russia has is that every hour this drags on, the worse the economic pain is going to be for them. And the longer this drags on, the more I can see the possibility of the US and EU blanket banning Russian oil and gas. If the public will is there, they'll do it. If they do it, Russia is finished because their only market will be China, and the Chinese will be able to set the prices because Putin will be desperate for cash.

[GoTfan]

TBH GoTfan through most of this conflict I was in the same mindset as you but now I’m actually having doubts Ukraine is actually gonna fall. The initial invasion stage as gone so bad for Russia I’m really having my doubts they will successfully pull off an invasion

I'd be very, very careful about assuming that. Let's not forget, Russia still possesses an extremely heavy advantage almost everywhere, and I can't see them retreating anytime soon. They've also sustained an advance rate of roughly 60-70 km a day, which is roughly what an armoured division can be expected to do. And like you said, this is only the initial stage.

The problem Russia has is that every hour this drags on, the worse the economic pain is going to be for them. And the longer this drags on, the more I can see the possibility of the US and EU blanket banning Russian oil and gas. If the public will is there, they'll do it. If they do it, Russia is finished because their only market will be China, and the Chinese will be able to set the prices because Putin will be desperate for cash.

While Russia does hold the advantages on paper and are still advancing they are facing terrible logistical issues, they failed to knock out Ukraine’s Air Force which is causing havoc on the ground, we are fastly entering spring which means those tanks and mechanized divisions get stuck in mud, and the more and more time Russia is running behind schedule the more Ukraine can get western weapons and mobilize reserves and civilians

Honestly, everything about this invasion can be summed up with that saying from Clarke and Dawe:

"The front fell off"

[GoTfan]

Apparently the reason for the heavy Russian Air Force losses is that they're low on or out of Precision Guided Munitions (PGMs), meaning they have to get closer to their target to drop their ordnance.

Right into the teeth of Ukraine's short-range aire defences.

[GoTfan]

Word is that the Ukrainians are expecting one final all-out offensive on Kyiv.