Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[GoTfan]

Geez, if they haven't knocked out the Ukrainian Air Force yet, then it's very clear something has gone badly wrong.

[GoTfan]

I too am a big-time dove. This is known by basically everyone. However, doves are not pacifists. When someone is shooting at you, you shoot back.

I defer to Slavoj Zizek on this war.

[GoTfan]

ok that's enough jaichind spam. Back to the ignore list you go.

His barely being able to control his excitement over gas shortages this winter maybe giving Putin what he wants has been a real tell hasn't it.

I've been convinced for some time that he is unable to see the world through any sort of moral lens.

[GoTfan]

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/China-Is-Quietly-Reselling-Its-Excess-Russian-LNG-To-Europe.html

"China Is Quietly Reselling Its Excess Russian LNG To Europe"

PRC getting in on the Russian gas resale to the EU markup game.

Translation: China is being two-faced while robbing Russia blind.

Which is pretty much what everyone with a passing knowledge of international relations predicted would happen. The Chinese don't think in terms of 2, 3, 4, or 5 years, they think in terms of 20, 30, 40, or 50 years.

[GoTfan]

bilaps in shambles at all this winning.

[GoTfan]

So I just heard a rumour that the Russians are storing ammunition at a nuclear plant. That true?

[GoTfan]

Woodbury, why must you discount anything that gives Ukraine any credit?

[GoTfan]

Maybe these T-54s are being moved for other reasons, but the presumption is that Russia is preparing to use them for the war in Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1638473462975954945
It's better than no tank, but the T-54 (first adopted in 1948) would be the oldest tank to serve in this conflict. It's worth noting that most estimates of Russian reserves in recent years either discounted the T-54/55s entirely or estimated that they had ~500, but the latter set of estimates sat within a context of a clear overestimate of ~13,000 tanks total.

I've stated before that Russia will have problems with other kinds of equipment, such as protected mobility, before they have problems fielding their preferred numbers of tanks, and I stand by that. However, if T-54s are deployed, that's definitely a harbinger of problems fielding the preferred number of tanks.

Waiting for the inevitable Lazerpig Loop argument from Woodbury on this.

https://twitter.com/akbullpup/status/1636093994525442051

That's not a meme, by the way. That's a real thing

[GoTfan]

https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/russia-hundreds-t90m-received-surge-production

Russian Army Has Received Hundreds of T-90M Tanks Under Surged Production - Reports

The Russian Army has reportedly recently several hundred T-90M tanks ready for frontline operations, according to an anonymous source cited by state media outlet Sputnik, with large numbers of new T-72B3M tanks having also been delivered. The announcement closely follows indications by Deputy Chairman Russian Security Council former president Dmitry Medvedev in the penultimate week of March that 1500 of the vehicles would be produced over the next year. "We will make 1,500 tanks alone this year. You can calculate how much our enemy will get, even according to the most optimistic calculations.”

As by far the most capable tank in Russian service, the T-90M completed testing in February 2020 and joined the Army in April that year, but was acquired on a very limited scale before the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian War in February. Major losses among older tank classes, and strong demonstration of the new model’s advantages, were key factors spurring a production surge.

One of the T-90M’s most notable advantages over older tanks is its integration of the 2A46M-5 gun and Kalina fire control system, which allow it to deploy the wide range specialised munitions some of which began to be seen in Ukraine in early 2023. The new tank also integrates a communication and command suite and digital communications systems significantly ahead of those of other operational Russian tanks. Its survivability benefits from the integration of the Afghanit active protection system and Relikt explosive reactive armour as well as isolation of munitions from the remainder of the vehicle internally, the benefits of which have already been seen in Ukraine..."

The Russian Army has received multiple batches of T-90Ms of unknown size since its forces began major operations in Ukraine in February 2022, with the vehicles beginning to be seen in the theatre in late April that year. Russia already comfortably outproduced all other tank manufacturers in the world combined with its T-90 output, although the large majority of these previously went to foreign clients most notably India and Algeria. The industry’s massive surplus capacity inherited from the Soviet era is expected to be key to facilitating production on a much larger scale not seen since 1991 to meet the demands of ongoing war in Ukraine and standoff with NATO. Whether production for export will continue to supplement the 1500 tanks produced for domestic use in the next year remains uncertain, with Russia’s dominant position in global markets for armour having been hard won and remaining highly prized.

Yeah, totally bro. 1500 T-90M. Thousands more to come. Pay no attention to the trainloads of T-54s coming out of storage in Siberia, I'm sure they're bringing those rust traps out of retirement because they have so many modern, functional tanks.

With reliable sources like Russian state media and even Dmitry Medvedev himself, I'll be taking this report very seriously.

It's not even that brilliant of a tank to begin with.

Again, Lazerpig Loop.

[GoTfan]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X1AcPYNyAPo
«100 A10 Warthogs will enter Ukraine Immediately»

That should give a clear advantage for Ukraine as these warplanes have a reputation as tank slayers because in Gulf War, A10 Warthogs bombarded 1000 Iraqi Guard tanks, 2000 military vehicles and 1200 artillery pieces

The channel discloses in the comments that it is "waiting for confirmation", so I'd be skeptical.

The A-10 is arguably obsolescent and was useful 30 years ago only as a close air support platform, and only then because the Iraqi air defence network in Kuwait was mostly dismantled by other planes.

Ukraine will take what they can get (the A-10, in some ways, would be comparable to their pre-existing Su-25s), but they'd be much better with something multi-role/more survivable in contested airspace.

Any idea of pilot training would be included in the hypothetical package?

Good points about the A-10s not being a game changer in this combat environment, but I would imagine there are certain areas where Russian air defense systems are weaker than others, such as possibly the Kinburn Spit as a hypothetical.

The A-10 is a horrible aircraft. It's obsolete, slow-moving, has been responsible for more friendly fire than any other aircraft in US history, and requires the pilot to carry a pair of binoculars to identify targets that they get wrong most of the time anyway.

Pierre Sprey might be dead and the Reformers now a laughing stock, but their ghosts still haunt us to this day.

Seriously, those guys lie more than Trump does.

[GoTfan]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X1AcPYNyAPo
«100 A10 Warthogs will enter Ukraine Immediately»

That should give a clear advantage for Ukraine as these warplanes have a reputation as tank slayers because in Gulf War, A10 Warthogs bombarded 1000 Iraqi Guard tanks, 2000 military vehicles and 1200 artillery pieces

The channel discloses in the comments that it is "waiting for confirmation", so I'd be skeptical.

The A-10 is arguably obsolescent and was useful 30 years ago only as a close air support platform, and only then because the Iraqi air defence network in Kuwait was mostly dismantled by other planes.

Ukraine will take what they can get (the A-10, in some ways, would be comparable to their pre-existing Su-25s), but they'd be much better with something multi-role/more survivable in contested airspace.

Any idea of pilot training would be included in the hypothetical package?

Good points about the A-10s not being a game changer in this combat environment, but I would imagine there are certain areas where Russian air defense systems are weaker than others, such as possibly the Kinburn Spit as a hypothetical.

The A-10 is a horrible aircraft. It's obsolete, slow-moving, has been responsible for more friendly fire than any other aircraft in US history, and requires the pilot to carry a pair of binoculars to identify targets that they get wrong most of the time anyway.

Pierre Sprey might be dead and the Reformers now a laughing stock, but their ghosts still haunt us to this day.

Seriously, those guys lie more than Trump does.

Who knew Lazerpig posted on this forum?

It's an issue I've evolved on primarily because of Lazerpig. I used to love the idea of 'big gun go brrrt' like everyone else before I was enlightened as to how obsolete a gunfighter is in the modern battlespace.

[GoTfan]

Fun fact, despite Woodbury's wet dreams about Russia exterminating Ukraine forever, the Battle of Bakhmut has almost been carrying on as long as the Battle of Verdun.

[GoTfan]

I'm still convinced that the reason for this invasion is because Putin's on borrowed time. He usually thinks fairly long term, but he has been taking more and more risks lately, including this war, and wants to be remembered as the man who rebuilt Russian dominance.

[GoTfan]

Zelensky confirmed the loss of Bakhmut. The bloodiest battle of the 21st Century (so far) has been won by Russia.

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1660173275022999552?cxt=HHwWgIC-tYazj4ou...

Yet again, you ignore the story for the headline. It is rather common with Putin Bros.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65662563

[GoTfan]

Zelensky confirmed the loss of Bakhmut. The bloodiest battle of the 21st Century (so far) has been won by Russia.

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1660173275022999552?cxt=HHwWgIC-tYazj4ouAAAA

Yet again, you ignore the story for the headline. It is rather common with Putin Bros.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65662563

smh, delusional. You think I care what his office has to say?

https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/1660180890578829313

Yes, yes, yes. Woody, we all know you're extremely disappointed Russia has not yet overrun all of Europe.

[GoTfan]

We may soon be facing a situation where Russia has nothing left but reservists. I'll say this much: Red Storm Rising has been more accurate about modern war than just about any non-fiction book ever.

[GoTfan]

https://twitter.com/ForeignPolicy/status/1659763384248676353

If there is one glaring failure on the part of the West, it's the total neglect of a major diplomatic presence in the Global South, particularly Africa.

[GoTfan]

Hindsight is 2020 in half a year:

>Ukraine will hold Bakhmut
>Kreminna will fall
>Svatove will fall
>Transnistria will fall
>Lukashenko and Kadyrov would die
>Ukrainians had crossed the Dniepr
>The Bakhmut flanks would collapse
>Ukrainians would take Belgorod

You're the sort of person who would have supported Halifax during the War Cabinet Crisis.

[GoTfan]

Lol so you mock me citing Philips OBrien one of the better respected sources on the war development and proceed to post a link from Big “Guys I’m hearing the Kharkiv counterattack has been a disaster for Ukraine” Serge and NAFO punching bag squatsons? 😂😭

What?? By who? Literally all the OSINT Ukrainian-stan guys/REAL service members always trash-talk that asshole when he comes up, because he carelessly posts crap all the time and flat out lies. He also clickbaits to the highest degree, it's mostly targeted towards reddit users and by-passers. I don't get how you still don't realize that after posting dozens of his unverified, hyperbole posts. It's actually insanity. Say what you want about me, but I always try to put some stock into what I post.

And that Zaluzhny thing I never claimed he was dead, I believed he was wounded, which was reasonable thing to assume at the time, even then I never said or implied it was a word of fact. Really, stop being a NAFO cringelord.

Doesn't matter what Ayden himself thinks. I care about the pictures which is worth a thousand more than some guy who constantly lies post, after post, after post.

Fascist says what?

[GoTfan]

Waiting for Woodbury to tell us this was a Ukranian false flag and a US black op at the same time because West Bad Russia God

[GoTfan]

It is worth noting that some commentators have pointed out that this was never going to be a Desert Storm-style Shock and Awe campaign. Proclaiming this thing to be a runaway success or total failure is to ignore the reality of the situation; we are not going to know the outcome of this attack until weeks, maybe months from now.

Let's not forget either that fog of war as affected this war quite a lot. I know I keep using Lazerpig as a source, but to paraphrase him, I have no idea what the f**k is going on, and to an extent, neither does anyone else here.

[GoTfan]

In other news, Colonel James Burton is once again proven to be a pathological liar and Pentagon Wars is a pile of rubbish:

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1669381431372525570

I am overjoyed to see the Reformers fade into irrelevance.

[GoTfan]

Hi everyone! I’m new. I came across this board for more ways to get information on the war. I finally decided to sign up in order to ignore a certain Putin fan boy from clogging the feed. From just reading responses and posts, I can say that never before have I felt such a strong and genuine hatred for anyone online until I saw Woody and other western Putin-lovers. (Politically im center right. Very much an establishment/moderate Republican)

That said, Slava Ukraïni and to victory!

Woodbury is pro-Ukraine.

And George Wallace supported the Civil Rights Act

[GoTfan]

What the hell is going on here exactly?

[GoTfan]

Dealing with it a bit better than last time, but how concerned should we be about the nukes in Russia? Not exactly sure this is a good thing.