Polish Politics and Elections

[Mike88]

I believe it will be very close, but my hunch is that Duda will pull out a squeaker. In the first round, both Duda and Trzaskowski overperformed the average polls by more than 2%. But Duda outperformed by more 0.2% than Trzaskowski.

The average of polls in the second round gives Duda 50.3% and Trzaskowski 49.7%, so I would say Duda wins by a 50.5% to 49.5% margin.

We'll see but I would like Trzaskowski to win.

[Mike88]

Turnout projected at 68.9%

[Mike88]

Exit poll has Duda ahead 50.4-49.6

Not bad by prediction then. Still, it's very, very close.

[Mike88]

It's too close to call.

But whoever wins will preside over a deeply divided country and I don't know if there's room for unity in Poland, specially during these troubling times.

[Mike88]

The margin between Duda and Trzaskowski seems to be narrowing very, very slowly. Maybe the final margin could be something like 50.9% vs 49.1%.

[Mike88]

Around 1 million people marched this Sunday against the government in Warsaw. The march was headed by the main opposition coalition, KO:

Polling suggests that the PiS coalition is holding on to a comfortable lead, but taking into account that polls around the world are failing over and over again, these poll numbers should be taken with a massive grain of salt.

[Mike88]

Increase in turnout seems higher in areas where the Opposition is stronger, although both sides seem to be turning out in good numbers.

[Mike88]

At what time were results announced in 2019?

Polls close at 9 pm local time and then Exit polls are revealed.

How reliable are they?

In the 2015 and 2019 elections, the Ipsos exit poll basically matched the final results. In the 2020 Presidential election, the exit poll was also spot on.

[Mike88]

Turnout at 5 p.m : 57.54% (+11.6)

Turnout in 2019 was 61.7%. With these kind of figures at 5pm, the final turnout will probably surpass 70%.

[Mike88]

2 hours after polls close and no results?

[Mike88]

2 hours after polls close and no results?

It's always been slow + record turnout + 3 different ballots to count.

I get that, but still, it's very, very slow.

[Mike88]

Could PSL end up being kingmaker?

If KO+TD (which includes PSL)+Lewica get a majority, Tusk will become Prime Minister.

[Mike88]

First results

https://wybory.gov.pl/sejmsenat2023/en/sejm/wynik/pl

Still, just 69 counted out of... 31,497. (Deep breath)

[Mike88]

Didn't post here yesterday, had a minor health issue, but very good result for the Opposition.

Another positive note is that KO+TD has more seats than ZP+Confederation, 222 vs 212, and is just 9 seats away from a majority.

[Mike88]

So Tusk is now certain to become PM again? The 3 parties aiming to oust PiS obatin 54% of seats now, which is an insurmountable advantage.

Kind of ironic that this would be the 2nd time Tusk ended the PiS reign, he already did so in 2007 when Kacysnki himself was his predecessor as PM.

There is the chance that the PiS president ends up calling for new elections after first giving PiS the mandate for government (which would fail), but I think such an election would only reinforce the opposition’s position as they could easily hammer on PiS not willing to listen to the 53-54% that disagree with them and instead calling a costly new election.

Can the President do that? I'm not fully aware of the Presidential powers in Poland, but isn't there somekind of waiting period until the President is allowed to use his power of dissolving Parliament?