Which Dem is most likely to outperform polling?

[SaneDemocrat]

Thoughts?

[Southern Reactionary Dem]

None of these. The answer is CCM.

[Unelectable Bystander]

CCM is most easily most likely even if it’s not guaranteed. Fetterman is probably next for similar reasons why Trump was underestimated (unique appeal, high intensity supporters). I still don’t think it’s guaranteed and would probably lean towards thinking Oz is underestimated, but I can’t see any of the others being underestimated.

[Senator Incitatus]

CCM or Warnock, though neither outside the margin of error.

[SaneDemocrat]

None of these. The answer is CCM.

Too obvious

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Besides CCM, I think it might be Barnes.
Three reasons:
1.) Unlike in presidential elections, polling did not Democratic support in WI in the 2018 midterms
2.) Abortion will be a big issue driving voters to the polls in Wisconsin with a strongly Republican legislature and legacy antiabortion laws subject to partisan enforcement.
3.) Wisconsin has same-day voter registration, so factor (2) may drive a lot of young pro-choice voters to vote who are now unregistered and thus cannot be picked up by polling.

[SaneDemocrat]

And it is similar to NY-19

[swf541]

CCM or Fetterman, I think there could be a Bradley Effect in terms with Oz.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

CCM but I doubt any do. I think those results are going to be slim and none now

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

ＣＣＭ。
If not her, then Barnes.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

CCM

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Barnes obviously will it's a 303 map

[Figueira]

Barnes's polling average (down 3) seems about right to me, whereas the others are all doing better than I'd expect them to. So if anyone outperforms, I would bet on it being Barnes, even if he doesn't win outright.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

I'm going to go with Fetterman on the basis that the garbage turnout that Mastriano is going to generate for Republicans in the gubernatorial race due to his lack of any campaign infrastructure might have a knock-on effect in the Senate race, but I will say the arguments for Barnes here - particularly the same day registration issue - are fairly compelling.

[morgieb]

I'm not sure any of them do (out of the ones you named so not including CCM/Warnock), but I voted Fetterman as it's the sort of race that if you took the two candidates and knew nothing about their positions you'd expect Fetterman to be the Republican and Oz the Dem. Traditionally the hardest pollster to get is the Obama/Trump voter.....Fetterman seems fairly appealing to that type and Oz is really repulsive to that type of voter.

[SnowLabrador]

I voted Beasley, but really none of them.

[Ferguson97]

Fetterman. Most of the so-called "movement" to Oz is noise.

[Sestak]

I'm not sure any of them do (out of the ones you named so not including CCM/Warnock), but I voted Fetterman as it's the sort of race that if you took the two candidates and knew nothing about their positions you'd expect Fetterman to be the Republican and Oz the Dem. Traditionally the hardest pollster to get is the Obama/Trump voter.....Fetterman seems fairly appealing to that type and Oz is really repulsive to that type of voter.

Fetterman...maybe? Although if you looked more closely into his personal background I don't think that holds up. Republicans who go to Harvard don't feel the need to become some small town mayor before running for higher office.

Oz...no. He has a Republican appearance and a Republican claim to fame. The only real Democratic factor about him is that he's Muslim and I don't know how much that overrides the above two.

[MT Treasurer]

Write-in: Warnock, but only in the runoff.

[Senator Spark]

Besides CCM, I think it might be Barnes.
Three reasons:
1.) Unlike in presidential elections, polling did not Democratic support in WI in the 2018 midterms
2.) Abortion will be a big issue driving voters to the polls in Wisconsin with a strongly Republican legislature and legacy antiabortion laws subject to partisan enforcement.
3.) Wisconsin has same-day voter registration, so factor (2) may drive a lot of young pro-choice voters to vote who are now unregistered and thus cannot be picked up by polling.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Besides CCM, I think it might be Barnes.
Three reasons:
1.) Unlike in presidential elections, polling did not Democratic support in WI in the 2018 midterms
2.) Abortion will be a big issue driving voters to the polls in Wisconsin with a strongly Republican legislature and legacy antiabortion laws subject to partisan enforcement.
3.) Wisconsin has same-day voter registration, so factor (2) may drive a lot of young pro-choice voters to vote who are now unregistered and thus cannot be picked up by polling.

Also jsut looking at the current average, a Barnes performance actually seems realistic whereas I have a hard time seeing Kelly winning by 6 or Ryan outright winning.

Another state where I suspect Dems have a good shot of outperforming polling is Colorado as historically, they've almost always matched if not outperformed polling in the state.

[Calthrina950]

Besides CCM, I think it might be Barnes.
Three reasons:
1.) Unlike in presidential elections, polling did not Democratic support in WI in the 2018 midterms
2.) Abortion will be a big issue driving voters to the polls in Wisconsin with a strongly Republican legislature and legacy antiabortion laws subject to partisan enforcement.
3.) Wisconsin has same-day voter registration, so factor (2) may drive a lot of young pro-choice voters to vote who are now unregistered and thus cannot be picked up by polling.

Also jsut looking at the current average, a Barnes performance actually seems realistic whereas I have a hard time seeing Kelly winning by 6 or Ryan outright winning.

Another state where I suspect Dems have a good shot of outperforming polling is Colorado as historically, they've almost always matched if not outperformed polling in the state.

This is a good point. Polis, in particular, has been leading in the polls by double digits, and the RCP average has him up by 14.2. If he outperforms the polls, in line with past historical trends, then he should run ahead of Biden's 2020 margin. As for Bennet, it could mean that he might hit low double digits against O'Dea, although he will still run behind Polis by a substantial amount.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Besides CCM, I think it might be Barnes.
Three reasons:
1.) Unlike in presidential elections, polling did not Democratic support in WI in the 2018 midterms
2.) Abortion will be a big issue driving voters to the polls in Wisconsin with a strongly Republican legislature and legacy antiabortion laws subject to partisan enforcement.
3.) Wisconsin has same-day voter registration, so factor (2) may drive a lot of young pro-choice voters to vote who are now unregistered and thus cannot be picked up by polling.

Also jsut looking at the current average, a Barnes performance actually seems realistic whereas I have a hard time seeing Kelly winning by 6 or Ryan outright winning.

Another state where I suspect Dems have a good shot of outperforming polling is Colorado as historically, they've almost always matched if not outperformed polling in the state.

This is a good point. Polis, in particular, has been leading in the polls by double digits, and the RCP average has him up by 14.2. If he outperforms the polls, in line with past historical trends, then he should run ahead of Biden's 2020 margin. As for Bennet, it could mean that he might hit low double digits against O'Dea, although he will still run behind Polis by a substantial amount.

I think as long as O'Dea loses by a fairly substantial amount (>5%), it'll pretty much confirm CO's status as a safe D state going forwards.

Of all places in the country, Colorado seems like a place Dems are less likely to experience huge slippage from 2020 due to:

1. Dems general reliance on pretty reliable high education voters in Denver/Boulder
2. Collapse of the GOP in suburbs. We may see some reversions but the GOP isn't going back to Gardner 2014 or Romney 2012 levels
3. Favorable growth patterns for Dems
4. From the stats I've seen, Colorado hasn't been hit as hard as some other states
5. Polis, the main Dem in the state, being very effective at mesaging and not overdoing things around covid.

[clever but short]

Since CCM is excluded, I would guess Kelly, and I'm surprised no one has replied as such when he's winning the poll.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's obviously, Barnes and it's not close Obama is coming to stimo for him in October Chuck Todd already said it's WI, PA 52/48 Senate map

Johnson isn't up 6 pts, if Johnson was ahead by 6 don't you think Trafalgar would have came up with Johnson plus six right away Barnes was tied among RV and Clarity Barnes internal poll had him up plus 1