WI-SEN 2022 Megathread: Who stole my cheese?

[Mr. Smith]

What are the odds of 2022 turning into a Republican 2018, and this seat goes the way of Bill Nelson?

[Mr. Smith]

Ironically, this could be a Feingold '92 situation in the makin'

Johnson's already a bit of a Kasten on 'roids, and '16 is semi-similar to  '86 in result [tho I don't think that was a rematch with Nelson...], and what happened to the other Nelson of note in The St. Ronnie Revolution isn't that separate from 2010 in nature... so...

[Mr. Smith]

Yall sound like the people saying Cunninghams scandal wouldn't matter. Johnson has always been quite conservative and outspoken but it wasn't until recently(2020ish) that he really started putting his foot in his mouth. I highly doubt these comments are going to play well in a swing state. (Of course, if Barnes is the nominee it doesn't really matter)

It didn't.

Biden couldn't generate the enthusiasm needed to flip the state, which in turn would've propelled him over, or even given him the goodwill to outrun him.

You could've had  Bowl of Frosted Flakes (D) vs. Punch in the Nose (R) in this race, and as long as Biden couldn't win the entire vote by at least 6, the Punch in the Nose was going to win no matter what.

[Mr. Smith]

I really don’t buy that Gallagher would outperform Johnson in this race solely because he’s (ostensibly) more 'moderate' — the guy is not tested statewide, seems way too polished in a state that loves its "authentic" elected officials, and has no real distinguishable brand. Johnson's ability to turn every issue (even inflation, deficits, etc.) into a culture-war clash has a record of selling well even in WOW and the Green Bay area (can we dispel with this notion that this kind of messaging only works in rural areas? many posters seem to be unaware of how Johnson actually ran in 2010 and in which parts of the state he really crushed Feingold), and there’s obviously no doubt that he can supercharge rural/small-town turnout for the GOP. Democrats are also somewhat likely to make several strategic mistakes running against him in particular, like recycling the anti-Trump/insurrectionist playbook (did not work for McAuliffe) or running a gazillion ads painting Johnson as an "extremist" or "radical Republican" (something every voter already knows) while doing nothing to dismantle his perceived "authenticity" (same mistake Republicans make when they run against "socialist" Baldwin).

Either way, Republicans aren’t losing this race in a Republican wave environment. Likely R with Johnson or Gallagher.

That logic is just what was plausible for Bill Nelson in 2018 too. I mean it WAS a Dem environment supposedly

I highly doubt Barnes or Nelson will be quite so tactically haphazard like Feingold was [moreso in 2010].

[Mr. Smith]

Does anyone know why Johnson so heavily outran Trump in WoW in 2016? He had a slight underperformance pretty much everywhere else in the state but his overperformance in Milwaukee's white suburbs were really insane and really don't align with what one would expect. And when I say overperformance, I mean consistently 20 points +.

Whether or not Johnson is able to get this overperformance, or even half of it in 2022 will be really powerful in this race and Dems can't win if he gets it again even if they hold him down elsewhere.

It'd be like if Fetterman wins by underunni8nging Biden in rural PA and Allegehny, yet does even better in Chester and Montgomery counties and more generally SEPA. Wouldn't be the coalition anyone would've thought.

It's not insane at all, Hillary's general campaign that year activated a lot of voters only offended by Trump personally that might well have stayed home, but then they either stayed R or didn't vote for Feingold.

For similar reasons, if Hillary had bothered more seriously to campaign in the state, Driftless probably ends up being where Feingold seriously overperforms enough to flip the state, while Hillary barely holds on...just because some

On that note, it'll be interesting to see how things vary between gubernatorial and Senate.

[Mr. Smith]

Tbf, Feingold was a very hit-and-miss campaigner who literally already almost blew 1998, might well have been saved by Gingrich's overreach.

In 2010, he ran a bit lazily and got outspent.

And in 2016, iirc, he broke principles and started doing that "dark money" thing.

Who knows if RoJo actually still wins 2016 if say, Feingold did the correct thing and ran in 2012 and say, Tammy Baldwin is 2016.

[Mr. Smith]

It's good to hear that Barnes seems to have held his own in last night's debate, but I am certain that it doesn't matter. At best maybe Barnes can lose by two or three points instead of four or five.

Then again, maybe it does because apparently Masters not self-combusting on stage in the Arizona debate means he is "back in it." So logically that should apply to Barnes as well given how many Republicans posters have made that point, no?

Democrats always get held to higher standards by all sides except for hacks from the  candidate's wing in the party.