It's never a fantastic sign being at 44% in your own party's internals. Lean D, and closer to Likely than Tossup. If Manchin is losing, Dems are having a bad, BAD night.
If a night is this bad, after it promised to be so good for so long, I think it could be the last night for the party.
If Manchin loses and Dems lose other seats in the Senate in an otherwise good Dem year when Dems are winning the national popular vote handily, hopefully it will help persuade Dems to prioritize un-rigging the Senate and/or creating new states.
If someone chops off both my legs, that would probably convince me to pick up marathoning.
There's no world in which a party plagued by that kind of political impotence could get anything close to a massive constitutional revolution through without a violent assault on the capital.
