Who do want to win/think will win?

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Stein but realistically Obama/Obama but I'm very worried that might change.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Yes, a successful businessman with a lovely wife, great family, millions of dollars, and strong legacy is a failure.

He's held high political office before. It did not go especially well, except for something that he's now running away from.

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Obama's position is favored right now to the extent that his best bet will, I think, be to try to simply run out the clock. Both sides running plodding, negative campaigns, all else being equal over the next couple of months, will I think lead to results vaguely similar to 2004, possibly a bit less narrow for the incumbent.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

There are other ways to measure success.

Of course, and there are plenty of ways in which Romney's been a success, but I think his time as governor is most relevant to what his time as president might hypothetically look like.