All the English sources I can find are either agnostic about or indicate the opposite of what you are asserting in the text I've bolded.
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The Haredim appaear to have an excellent retention rate. The trend instead seems to be towards polarization, with non-Haredi religious Jews trending secular with a minority going Haredi.
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Even at a lesser retention rate, the Haredi seem to be gaining on the non-Haredi Jewish population.
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Again, Pew's research indicates that younger Jews are more religious, not less.
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Unfortunately, I couldn't find any sources on the change in Haredi birth rates or how many babies younger Jewish women are having by sect, but it seems like Haredi birth rates have quite a ways to fall before its comparable to secular Jews.
Do you have any other sources, perhaps something in Hebrew that I could run through Google Translate? I suspect you might be taking an overly opimistic view of Israeli secularism, perhaps due to the pillarization of Israeli society.
Your numbers seem to forget the Negev Bedouin. By 2045, there will likely be as many as 840,000 Negev Bedouin, as their population doubles every 14-15 years.
